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  • Meta‐analysis on the potential for increasing nitrogen losses from intensifying tropical agriculture
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-26
    Alexandra M. Huddell; Gillian L. Galford; Katherine L. Tully; Cynthia Crowley; Cheryl A. Palm; Christopher Neill; Jonathan E. Hickman; Duncan N. L. Menge
    更新日期:2020-01-27
  • Halving sunlight reveals no carbon limitation of aboveground biomass production in alpine grassland
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-26
    Patrick Möhl; Erika Hiltbrunner; Christian Körner
    更新日期:2020-01-27
  • Phenological responses in a sycamore‐aphid‐parasitoid system and consequences for aphid population dynamics: a 20‐year case study
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-27
    Vicki L. Senior; Luke C. Evans; Simon R. Leather; Tom H. Oliver; Karl L. Evans

    Species interactions have a spatio‐temporal component driven by environmental cues, which if altered by climate change can drive shifts in community dynamics. There is insufficient understanding of the precise time‐windows during which inter‐annual variation in weather drives phenological shifts and the consequences for mismatches between interacting species and resultant population dynamics – particularly for insects. We use a 20‐year study on a tri‐trophic system: sycamore Acer pseudoplatanus, two associated aphid species Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus testudinaceus, and their hymenopteran parasitoids. Using a sliding window approach, we assess climatic drivers of phenology in all three trophic levels. We quantify the magnitude of resultant trophic mismatches between aphids and their plant hosts and parasitoids, and then model the impacts of these mismatches, direct weather effects and density dependence on local‐scale aphid population dynamics. Warmer temperatures in mid‐March to late‐April were associated with advanced sycamore budburst, parasitoid attack and (marginally) D. platanoidis emergence. The precise time‐window during which spring weather advances phenology varies considerably across each species. Crucially, warmer temperatures in late winter delayed the emergence of both aphid species. Seasonal variation in warming rates thus generate marked shifts in the relative timing of spring events across trophic levels and mismatches in the phenology of interacting species. Despite this, we found no evidence that aphid population growth rates were adversely impacted by the magnitude of mismatch with their host plants or parasitoids, or direct impacts of temperature and precipitation. Strong density dependence effects occurred in both aphid species and probably buffered populations, through density dependent compensation, from adverse impacts of the marked inter‐annual climatic variation that occurred during the study period. These findings explain the resilience of aphid populations to climate change and uncover a key mechanism, warmer winter temperatures delaying insect phenology, by which climate change drives asynchronous shifts between interacting species.

    更新日期:2020-01-27
  • Microbial carbon limitation: The need for integrating microorganisms into our understanding of ecosystem carbon cycling
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-25
    Jennifer L. Soong; Lucia Fuchslueger; Sara Marañon‐Jimenez; Margaret S. Torn; Ivan A. Janssens; Josep Penuelas; Andreas Richter
    更新日期:2020-01-26
  • Tree growth influenced by warming winter climate and summer moisture availability in northern temperate forests
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-25
    Jill E. Harvey; Marko Smiljanić; Tobias Scharnweber; Allan Buras; Anna Cedro; Roberto Cruz‐García; Igor Drobyshev; Karolina Janecka; Āris Jansons; Ryszard Kaczka; Marcin Klisz; Alar Läänelaid; Roberts Matisons; Lena Muffler; Kristina Sohar; Barbara Spyt; Juliane Stolz; Ernst van der Maaten; Marieke van der Maaten‐Theunissen; Adomas Vitas; Robert Weigel; Jürgen Kreyling; Martin Wilmking
    更新日期:2020-01-26
  • Invasive non‐native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-24
    Katarzyna J. Chwedorzewska; Małgorzata Korczak‐Abshire; Anna Znój

    Climate change substantially alters biodiversity, causing changes in phenology, genetic composition, and species ranges, which in turn affect species interactions and ecosystem processes (e.g. Root et al. 2003). Species outside of their natural ranges alter colonized ecosystems by introducing new biological interactions, causing even native species extinctions, and changing whole habitats. Progressive climate change is directly interconnected to biological invasions and may amplify the negative impact of alien species in many regions (Ricciardi et al. 2013).

    更新日期:2020-01-26
  • Variation and evolution of C:N ratio among different organs enable plants to adapt to N‐limited environments
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-24
    Jiahui Zhang; Nianpeng He; Congcong Liu; Li Xu; Zhi Chen; Ying Li; Ruomeng Wang; Guirui Yu; Wei Sun; Chunwang Xiao; Han Y. H. Chen; Peter B. Reich
    更新日期:2020-01-24
  • Meta‐analysis of global livestock urine‐derived nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-23
    M. López‐Aizpún; C.A. Horrocks; A.F. Charteris; K.A. Marsden; V.S. Ciganda; J.R. Evans; D.R. Chadwick; L.M. Cárdenas

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an air pollutant of major environmental concern, with agriculture representing 60% of anthropogenic global N2O emissions. Much of the N2O emissions from livestock production systems result from transformation of N deposited to soil within animal excreta. There exists a substantial body of literature on urine patch N2O dynamics, we aimed to identify key controlling factors influencing N2O emissions and to aid understanding of knowledge gaps to improve GHG reporting and prioritise future research. We conducted an extensive literature review and random effect meta‐analysis (using REML) of results to identify key relationships between multiple potential independent factors and global N2O emissions factors (EFs) from urine patches. Mean air temperature, soil pH and ruminant animal species (sheep or cow) were significant factors influencing the EFs reviewed. However, several factors that are known to influence N2O emissions, such as animal diet and urine composition, could not be considered due to the lack of reported data. The review highlighted a widespread tendency for inadequate metadata and uncertainty reporting in the published studies, as well as the limited geographical extent of investigations, which are more often conducted in temperate regions thus far. Therefore, here we give recommendations for factors that are likely to affect the EFs and should be included in all future studies, these include: soil pH and texture; experimental set‐up; direct measurement of soil moisture and temperature during the study period; amount and composition of urine applied; animal type and diet; N2O emissions with a measure of uncertainty; data from a control with zero‐N application and meteorological data.

    更新日期:2020-01-24
  • Modelling the effect of the 2018 summer heatwave and drought on isoprene emissions in a UK woodland
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-22
    Frederick Otu‐Larbi; Conor G. Bolas; Valerio Ferracci; Zosia Staniaszek; Roderic L. Jones; Yadvinder Malhi; Neil R. P. Harris; Oliver Wild; Kirsti Ashworth
    更新日期:2020-01-23
  • Fluvial CO2 and CH4 patterns across wildfire‐disturbed ecozones of subarctic Canada: Current status and implications for future change
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-22
    Ryan H. S. Hutchins; Suzanne E. Tank; David Olefeldt; William L. Quinton; Christopher Spence; Nicole Dion; Cristian Estop‐Aragonés; Samson G. Mengistu
    更新日期:2020-01-23
  • Climate and human water use diminish wetland networks supporting continental waterbird migration
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-22
    J. Patrick Donnelly; Sammy L. King; Nicholas L. Silverman; Daniel P. Collins; Eduardo M. Carrera‐Gonzalez; Alberto Lafón‐Terrazas; Johnnie N. Moore

    Migrating waterbirds moving between upper and lower latitudinal breeding and wintering grounds rely on a limited network of endorheic lakes and wetlands when crossing arid continental interiors. Recent drying of global endorheic water stores raises concerns over deteriorating migratory pathways, yet few studies have considered these effects at the scale of continental flyways. Here, we investigate the resiliency of waterbird migration networks across western North America by reconstructing long‐term patterns (1984‐2018) of terminal lake and wetland surface water area in 26 endorheic watersheds. Findings were partitioned regionally by snowmelt‐ and monsoon‐driven hydrologies and combined with climate and human water‐use data to determine their importance in predicting surface water trends. Nonlinear patterns of lake and wetland drying were apparent along latitudinal flyway gradients. Pervasive surface water declines were prevalent in northern snowmelt watersheds (lakes ‐27%, wetlands ‐47%) while largely stable in monsoonal watersheds to the south (lakes ‐13%, wetlands +8%). Monsoonal watersheds represented a smaller proportion of total lake and wetland area, but their distribution and frequency of change within highly arid regions of the continental flyway increased their value to migratory waterbirds. Irrigated agriculture and increasing evaporative demands were the most important drivers of surface water declines. Underlying agricultural and wetland relationships however were more complex. Approximately seven percent of irrigated lands linked to flood irrigation and water storage practices supported 61% of all wetland inundation in snowmelt watersheds. In monsoonal watersheds, small earthen dams meant to capture surface runoff for livestock watering, were a major component of wetland resources (67%) that supported networks of isolated wetlands surrounding endorheic lakes. Ecological trends and human impacts identified herein underscore the importance of assessing flyway scale change as our model depictions likely reflect new and emerging bottlenecks to continental migration.

    更新日期:2020-01-23
  • Assessing the response of forest productivity to climate extremes in Switzerland using model‐data fusion
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-22
    Volodymyr Trotsiuk; Florian Hartig; Maxime Cailleret; Flurin Babst; David I. Forrester; Andri Baltensweiler; Nina Buchmann; Harald Bugmann; Arthur Gessler; Mana Gharun; Francesco Minunno; Andreas Rigling; Brigitte Rohner; Jonas Stillhard; Esther Thuerig; Peter Waldner; Marco Ferretti; Werner Eugster; Marcus Schaub

    The response of forest productivity to climate extremes strongly depends on ambient environmental and site conditions. To better understand these relationships at a regional scale, we used nearly 800 observation years from 271 permanent long‐term forest monitoring plots across Switzerland, obtained between 1980 and 2017. We assimilated these data into the 3‐PG forest ecosystem model using Bayesian inference, reducing the bias of model predictions from 14% to 5% for forest stem carbon stocks and from 45% to 9% for stem carbon stock changes. We then estimated the productivity of forests dominated by Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica for the period of 1960‐2018, and tested for productivity shifts in response to climate along elevational gradient and in extreme years. Simulated net primary productivity (NPP) decreased with elevation (2.86 ± 0.006 Mg C ha‐1 y‐1 km‐1 for P. abies and 0.93 ± 0.010 Mg C ha‐1 y‐1 km‐1 for F. sylvatica). During warm‐dry extremes, simulated NPP for both species increased at higher and decreased at lower elevations, with reductions in NPP of more than 25% for up to 21% of the potential species distribution range in Switzerland. Reduced plant water availability had a stronger effect on NPP than temperature during warm‐dry extremes. Importantly, cold‐dry extremes had negative impacts on regional forest NPP comparable to warm‐dry extremes. Overall, our calibrated model suggests that the response of forest productivity to climate extremes is more complex than simple shift towards higher elevation. Such robust estimates of NPP are key for increasing our understanding of forests ecosystems carbon dynamics under climate extremes.

    更新日期:2020-01-23
  • Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high Arctic ungulate metapopulation
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-21
    Bart Peeters; Mathilde Le Moullec; Joost A. M. Raeymaekers; Jonatan F. Marquez; Knut H. Røed; Åshild Ø. Pedersen; Vebjørn Veiberg; Leif Egil Loe; Brage B. Hansen
    更新日期:2020-01-22
  • Decreased carbon accumulation feedback driven by climate‐induced drying of two southern boreal bogs over recent centuries
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-21
    Hui Zhang; Minna Väliranta; Sanna Piilo; Matthew J. Amesbury; Marco A. Aquino‐López; Thomas P. Roland; Susanna Salminen‐Paatero; Jussi Paatero; Annalea Lohila; Eeva‐Stiina Tuittila

    Northern boreal peatlands are important ecosystems in modulating global biogeochemical cycles, yet their biological communities and related carbon dynamics are highly sensitive to changes in climate. Despite this, the strength and recent direction of these feedbacks are still unclear. The response of boreal peatlands to climate warming has received relatively little attention compared with other northern peatland types, despite forming a large northern hemisphere‐wide ecosystem. Here we studied the response of two ombrotrophic boreal peatlands to climate variability over the last c. 200 years for which local meteorological data are available. We used remains from plants and testate amoebae to study historical changes in peatland biological communities. These data were supplemented by peat property (bulk density, carbon and nitrogen content), 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs analyses and were used to infer changes in peatland hydrology and carbon dynamics. In total, six peat cores, three per study site, were studied that represent different microhabitats: low hummock, high lawn and low lawn. The data show a consistent drying trend over recent centuries, represented mainly as a change from wet habitat Sphagnum spp. to dry habitat S. fuscum. Summer temperature and precipitation appeared to be important drivers shaping peatland community and surface moisture conditions. Data from the driest microhabitat studied, low hummock, revealed a clear and strong negative linear correlation (R2 = 0.5031, p < 0.001) between carbon accumulation rate and peat surface moisture conditions: under dry conditions, less carbon was accumulated. This suggests that at the dry end of the moisture gradient, availability of water regulates carbon accumulation. It can be further linked to the decreased abundance of mixotrophic testate amoebae under drier conditions (R2 = 0.4207, p < 0.001). Our study implies that if effective precipitation decreases in the future, the carbon uptake capacity of boreal bogs may be threatened.

    更新日期:2020-01-22
  • Human land uses reduce climate connectivity across North America
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-21
    Sean A. Parks; Carlos Carroll; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Brady W. Allred

    Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, ‘human exposure’, that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non‐protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/yr and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. Additionally, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non‐protected lands; however, variability across North America is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non‐protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts.

    更新日期:2020-01-22
  • Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-20
    Matthew M. Kling; Stephanie L. Auer; Patrick J. Comer; David D. Ackerly; Healy Hamilton

    Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western United States, using data on observed climate trends from 1948–2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (i) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (ii) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (iii) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms—niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)—each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.

    更新日期:2020-01-22
  • Origin of volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under global warming
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-20
    Andrea Ghirardo; Frida Lindstein; Kerstin Koch; Franz Buegger; Michael Schloter; Andreas Albert; Anders Michelsen; J. Barbro Winkler; Jörg‐Peter Schnitzler; Riikka Rinnan
    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Disentangling the potential effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-19
    Kelly O. Maloney; Kevin P. Krause; Claire Buchanan; Lauren E. Hay; Gregory J. McCabe; Zachary M. Smith; Terry L. Sohl; John A. Young
    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • 更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Investigating the relationship between climate, stand age, and temporal trends in masting behavior of European forest trees
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-17
    Mario B. Pesendorfer; Michał Bogdziewicz; Jakub Szymkowiak; Zbigniew Borowski; Władysław Kantorowicz; Josep M. Espelta; Marcos Fernández‐Martínez
    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Modelling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850‐2015)
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-20
    Julia Le Noë; Sarah Matej; Andreas Magerl; Manan Bhan; Karl‐Heinz Erb; Simone Gingrich

    The development of appropriate tools to quantify long‐term carbon (C) budgets following forest transitions, i.e., shifts from deforestation to afforestation, and to identify their drivers are key issues for forging sustainable land‐based climate‐change mitigation strategies. Here, we develop a new modelling approach, CRAFT (CaRbon Accumulation in ForesTs) based on widely available input data to study the C dynamics in French forests at the regional scale from 1850 to 2015. The model is composed of two interconnected modules which integrate biomass stocks and flows (Module 1) with litter and soil organic C (Module 2) and build upon previously established coupled climate‐vegetation models. Our model allows to develop a comprehensive understanding of forest C dynamics by systematically depicting the integrated impact of environmental changes and land use. Model outputs were compared to empirical data of C stocks in forest biomass and soils, available for recent decades from inventories, and to a long‐term simulation using a bookkeeping model. The CRAFT model reliably simulates the C dynamics during France’s forest transition and reproduces C‐fluxes and stocks reported in the forest and soil inventories, in contrast to a widely used bookkeeping model which strictly only depicts C‐fluxes due to wood extraction. Model results show that like in several other industrialized countries, a sharp increase in forest biomass and SOC stocks resulted from forest area expansion and, especially after 1960, from tree growth resulting in vegetation thickening (on average 7.8 MtC yr‐1 over the whole period). The difference between the bookkeeping model, 0.3 MtC yr‐1 in 1850 and 21 MtC yr‐1 in 2015, can be attributed to environmental and land management changes. The CRAFT model opens new grounds for better quantifying long‐term forest C dynamics and investigating the relative effects of land use, land management, and environmental change.

    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Stronger regional biosecurity is essential to prevent hundreds of harmful biological invasions
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-19
    Katelyn T. Faulkner; Mark P. Robertson; John R.U. Wilson

    Biological invasions often transcend political boundaries, but the capacity of countries to prevent invasions varies. How this variation in biosecurity affects the invasion risks posed to the countries involved is unclear. We aimed to improve the understanding of how the biosecurity of a country influences that of its neighbours. We developed six scenarios that describe biological invasions in regions with contiguous countries. Using data from alien species databases, socio‐economic and biodiversity data, and species distribution models, we determined where 86 of 100 of the world's worst invasive species are likely to invade and have a negative impact in the future. Information on the capacity of countries to prevent invasions was used to determine whether such invasions could be avoided. For the selected species, we predicted 2,523 discrete invasions, most of which would have significant negative impacts and are unlikely to be prevented. Of these invasions, approximately a third were predicted to spread from the country in which the species first establishes to neighbouring countries where they would cause significant negative impacts. Most of these invasions are unlikely to be prevented as the country of first establishment has a low capacity to prevent invasions or has little incentive to do so as there will be no impact in that country. Regional biosecurity is therefore essential to prevent future harmful biological invasions. In consequence, we propose that the need for increased regional co‐operation to combat biological invasions be incorporated in global biodiversity targets.

    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land‐use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-19
    Thomas Knoke; Carola Paul; Anja Rammig; Elizabeth Gosling; Patrick Hildebrandt; Fabian Härtl; Thorsten Peters; Michael Richter; Karl‐Heinz Diertl; Luz Maria Castro; Baltazar Calvas; Santiago Ochoa; Liz Anabelle Valle‐Carrión; Ute Hamer; Alexander Tischer; Karin Potthast; David Windhorst; Jürgen Homeier; Wolfgang Wilcke; Andre Velescu; Andres Gerique; Perdita Pohle; Julia Adams; Lutz Breuer; Reinhard Mosandl; Erwin Beck; Michael Weber; Bernd Stimm; Brenner Silva; Peter H. Verburg; Jörg Bendix

    Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio‐economic objectives in decision‐making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio‐economic objectives in land‐use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi‐objective optimisation of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision‐makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimising only socio‐economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975‐2015) in the projected land‐use allocation (2015‐2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio‐economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land‐use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38‐80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes two main effects prevail: 1) accelerated expansion of diversified non‐natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators, 2) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimisation was deforestation consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.

    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Remote sensing of forest gas exchange: Considerations derived from a tomographic perspective
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-19
    A. Damm; E. Paul‐Limoges; D. Kükenbrink; C. Bachofen; F. Morsdorf

    The global exchange of gas (CO2, H2O) and energy (sensible and latent heat) between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere is often assessed using remote sensing (RS) products. Although these products are essential in quantifying the spatial variability of forest‐atmosphere exchanges, large uncertainties remain from a measurement bias towards top of canopy fluxes since optical RS data are not sensitive for the vertically integrated forest canopy. We hypothesize that a tomographic perspective opens new pathways to advance upscaling gas exchange processes from leaf to forest stands and larger scales. We suggest a 3D modelling environment comprising principles of ecohydrology and radiative transfer modelling with measurements of micrometeorological variables, leaf optical properties, and forest structure, and assess 3D fields of net CO2 assimilation (An) and transpiration (T) in a Swiss temperate forest canopy. 3D simulations were used to quantify uncertainties in gas exchange estimates inherent to RS approaches and model assumptions (i.e. a big leaf approximation in modelling approaches). Our results reveal substantial 3D heterogeneity of forest gas exchange with top of canopy An and T being reduced by up to 98% at the bottom of the canopy. We show that a simplified use of RS causes uncertainties in estimated vertical gas exchange of up to 300% and that the spatial variation of gas exchange in the footprint of flux towers can exceed diurnal dynamics. We also demonstrate that big leaf assumptions can cause uncertainties up to a factor of ten for estimates of An and T. Concluding, we acknowledge the large potential of 3D assessments of gas exchange to unravelling the role of vertical variability and canopy structure in regulating forest‐atmosphere gas and energy exchange. Such information allows to systematically link canopy with global scale controls on forest functioning and eventually enables advanced understanding of forest responses to environmental change.

    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Paradise lost: End‐of‐century warming and acidification under business‐as‐usual emissions have severe consequences for symbiotic corals
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-18
    Rene M van der Zande; Michelle Achlatis; Dorothea Bender‐Champ; Andreas Kubicek; Sophie Dove; Ove Hoegh‐Guldberg

    Despite recent efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, current global emission trajectories are still following the business‐as‐usual RCP8.5 emission pathway. The resulting ocean warming and acidification have transformative impacts on coral reef ecosystems, detrimentally affecting coral physiology and health, and these impacts are predicted to worsen in the near future. In this study, we kept fragments of the symbiotic corals Acropora intermedia (thermally sensitive) and Porites lobata (thermally tolerant) for 7 weeks under an orthogonal design of predicted end‐of‐century RCP8.5 conditions for temperature and pCO2 (3.5 °C and 570 ppm above present‐day respectively) to unravel how temperature and acidification, individually or interactively, influence metabolic and physiological performance. Our results pinpoint thermal stress as the dominant driver of deteriorating health in both species because of its propensity to destabilize coral‐dinoflagellate symbiosis (bleaching). Acidification had no influence on metabolism but had a significant negative effect on skeleton growth, particularly when photosynthesis was absent such as in bleached corals or under dark conditions. Total loss of photosynthesis after bleaching caused an exhaustion of protein and lipid stores and collapse of calcification that ultimately led to A. intermedia mortality. Despite complete loss of symbionts from its tissue, P. lobata maintained small amounts of photosynthesis and experienced a weaker decline in lipid and protein reserves that presumably contributed to higher survival of this species. Our results indicate that ocean warming and acidification under business‐as‐usual CO2 emission scenarios will likely extirpate thermally‐sensitive coral species before the end of the century, while slowing the recovery of more thermally‐tolerant species from increasingly severe mass coral bleaching and mortality. This could ultimately lead to the gradual disappearance of tropical coral reefs globally, and a shift on surviving reefs to only the most resilient coral species.

    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Climate drives global soil carbon sequestration and crop yield changes under conservation agriculture
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-17
    Wenjuan Sun; Josep G. Canadell; Lijun Yu; Lingfei Yu; Wen Zhang; Pete Smith; Tony Fischer; Yao Huang

    Conservation agriculture has been shown to have multiple benefits for soils, crop yield and the environment, and consequently, no‐till, the central practice of conservation agriculture, has rapidly expanded. However, studies show that the potential for carbon (C) sequestration in no‐till farming sometimes is not realized, let alone the ability to maintain or improve crop yield. Here we present a global analysis of no‐till induced changes of soil C and crop yield based on 260 and 1,970 paired studies, respectively. We show that, relative to local conventional tillage, arid regions can benefit the most from conservation agriculture by achieving a win‐win outcome of enhanced C sequestration and increased crop yield. However, more humid regions are more likely to increase SOC only, while some colder regions have yield losses and soil C loss as likely as soil C gains. In addition to site‐specific characteristics and management, a careful assessment of the regional climate is needed to determine the potential benefits of adopting conservation agriculture.

    更新日期:2020-01-21
  • Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-17
    Natalie Z. Kerr; Tyson Wepprich; Fritzi S. Grevstad; Erik B. Dopman; Frances S. Chew; Elizabeth E. Crone
    更新日期:2020-01-17
  • Megacity development and the demise of coastal coral communities: Evidence from coral skeleton δ15N records in the Pearl River estuary
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-16
    Nicolas N. Duprey; Tony X. Wang; Taihun Kim; Jonathan D. Cybulski; Hubert B. Vonhof; Paul J. Crutzen; Gerald H. Haug; Daniel M. Sigman; Alfredo Martínez‐García; David M. Baker
    更新日期:2020-01-17
  • Climate change fingerprints in recent European plant phenology
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-17
    Annette Menzel; Ye Yuan; Michael Matiu; Tim Sparks; Helfried Scheifinger; Regula Gehrig; Nicole Estrella

    A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971‐2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951‐2018 in a corresponding dataset, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978‐2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for non‐woody insect‐pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers’ decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers’ spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers’ spring and summer activities were very likely / likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers’ activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public.

    更新日期:2020-01-17
  • Drivers of long‐term invertebrate community stability in changing Swedish lakes
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-14
    Hannah B. Fried‐Petersen; Yimen G. Araya‐Ajoy; Martyn N. Futter; David G. Angeler
    更新日期:2020-01-14
  • Simultaneous quantification of N2, NH3 and N2O emissions from a flooded paddy field under different N fertilization regimes
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-14
    Longlong Xia; Xiaobo Li; Qianqian Ma; Shu Kee Lam; Benjamin Wolf; Ralf Kiese; Klaus Butterbach‐Bahl; Deli Chen; Zhian Li; Xiaoyuan Yan
    更新日期:2020-01-14
  • Extending the range of applicability of the semi‐empirical ecosystem flux model PRELES for varying forest types and climate
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-14
    Xianglin Tian; Francesco Minunno; Tianjian Cao; Mikko Peltoniemi; Tuomo Kalliokoski; Annikki Mäkelä

    Applications of ecosystem flux models on large geographical scales are often limited by model complexity and data availability. Here, we calibrated and evaluated a semi‐empirical ecosystem flux model, PRELES, for various forest types and climate conditions, based on eddy covariance data from 55 sites. A Bayesian approach was adopted for model calibration and uncertainty quantification. We applied the site‐specific calibrations and multisite calibrations to nine plant functional types (PFTs) to obtain the site‐specific and PFT specific parameter vectors for PRELES. A systematically designed cross‐validation was implemented to evaluate calibration strategies and the risks in extrapolation. The combination of plant physiological traits and climate patterns generated significant variation in vegetation responses and model parameters across but not within PFTs, implying that applying the model without PFT‐specific parameters is risky. But within PFT, the multisite calibrations performed as accurately as the site‐specific calibrations in predicting gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, the variations among sites within one PFT could be effectively simulated by simply adjusting the parameter of potential light‐use efficiency (LUE), implying significant convergence of simulated vegetation processes within PFT. The hierarchical modelling of PRELES provides a compromise between satellite‐driven LUE and physiologically oriented approaches for extrapolating the geographical variation of ecosystem productivity. Although measurement errors of eddy covariance and remotely sensed data propagated a substantial proportion of uncertainty or potential biases, the results illustrated that PRELES could reliably capture daily variations of GPP and ET for contrasting forest types on large geographical scales if PFT‐specific parameterizations were applied.

    更新日期:2020-01-14
  • Invasive non‐native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-13
    Kevin A. Hughes; Oliver L. Pescott; Jodey Peyton; Tim Adriaens; Elizabeth J. Cottier‐Cook; Gillian Key; Wolfgang Rabitsch; Elena Tricarico; David K. A. Barnes; Naomi Baxter; Mark Belchier; Denise Blake; Peter Convey; Wayne Dawson; Danielle Frohlich; Lauren M. Gardiner; Pablo González‐Moreno; Ross James; Christopher Malumphy; Stephanie Martin; Angeliki F. Martinou; Dan Minchin; Andrea Monaco; Niall Moore; Simon A. Morley; Katherine Ross; Jonathan Shanklin; Katharine Turvey; David Vaughan; Alexander G. C. Vaux; Victoria Werenkraut; Ian J. Winfield; Helen E. Roy
    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-12
    Maxime Olmos; Mark R. Payne; Marie Nevoux; Etienne Prévost; Gérald Chaput; Hubert Du Pontavice; Jérôme Guitton; Timothy Sheehan; Katherine Mills; Etienne Rivot
    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Impacts of land management practices on blue carbon stocks and greenhouse gas fluxes in coastal ecosystems—A meta‐analysis
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-12
    J. Jack O’Connor; Benedikt J. Fest; Michael Sievers; Stephen E. Swearer
    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Sensitivity of mangrove soil organic matter decay to warming and sea level change
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-12
    Marie Arnaud; Andy J. Baird; Paul J. Morris; Thuong Huyen Dang; Tai Tue Nguyen
    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • 更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Land‐use controls on carbon biogeochemistry in lowland streams of the Congo Basin
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-11
    Travis W. Drake; David C. Podgorski; Bienvenu Dinga; Jeffrey P. Chanton; Johan Six; Robert G. M. Spencer
    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • The overlooked spatial dimension of climate‐smart agriculture
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-11
    Reinhard Prestele; Peter H. Verburg
    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Light and warming drive forest understorey community development in different environments
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-11
    Haben Blondeel; Michael P. Perring; Leen Depauw; Emiel De Lombaerde; Dries Landuyt; Pieter De Frenne; Kris Verheyen
    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Changes in soil greenhouse gas fluxes by land use change from primary forest
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-13
    Mengguang Han; Biao Zhu

    Primary forest conversion is a worldwide serious problem associated with human disturbance and climate change. Land use change from primary forest to plantation, grassland or agricultural land may lead to profound alteration in the emission of soil greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, we conducted a global meta‐analysis concerning the effects of primary forest conversion on soil GHG emissions and explored the potential mechanisms from 101 studies. Our results showed that conversion of primary forest significantly decreased soil CO2 efflux and increased soil CH4 efflux, but had no effect on soil N2O efflux. However, the effect of primary forest conversion on soil GHG emissions was not consistent across different types of land use change. For example, soil CO2 efflux did not respond to the conversion from primary forest to grassland. Soil N2O efflux showed a prominent increase within the initial stage after conversion of primary forest and then decreased over time, while the responses of soil CO2 and CH4 effluxes were consistently negative or positive across different elapsed time‐intervals. Moreover, either within or across all types of primary forest conversion, the response of soil CO2 efflux was mainly moderated by changes in soil microbial biomass carbon and root biomass, while the responses of soil N2O and CH4 effluxes were related to the changes in soil nitrate and soil aeration‐related factors (soil water content and bulk density) respectively. Collectively, our findings highlight the significant effects of primary forest conversion on soil GHG emissions, enhance our knowledge on the potential mechanisms driving these effects, and improve future models of soil GHG emissions after land use change from primary forest.

    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Microbial resistance and resilience in response to environmental changes under the higher intensity of human activities than global average level
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-13
    Laibin Huang; Junhong Bai; Xiaojun Wen; Guangliang Zhang; Chengdong Zhang; Baoshan Cui; Xinhui Liu

    With the increasing intensity of global human activities, the ecosystem function, which is supported by the microbial community, will be dramatically changed and impaired. To investigate microbial resistance and resilience of microbial communities to human activities, we chose two typical types of human disturbances, urbanization, and reclamation under the higher intensity of human activities than the global average level. We examined microbial traits, including the abundance, diversity, phylogeny and co‐occurrence interactions in soil microbial communities, together with the nitrification activities observed in the subtropical coastal ecosystem of the Pearl River Estuary and in soil microcosm experiments. Microbial communities were less resistant to the environmental changes caused by urbanization than to those caused by reclamation, which was significantly reflected in the nitrogen and/or carbon‐related patterns. However, most of the microbial traits could be recovered almost to the original level without significant differences in the microcosm after 40 days of incubation. The co‐occurrence interactions between nitrifiers and other microbial communities were dramatically changed and could not be completely recovered, but this change did not affect their nitrification activities for balancing the ammonium in the soil to the original level during the recovery stage, suggesting that the interactions between microbial communities might have fewer effects on their activities than previously thought. This study quantitatively demonstrated that microbial communities as a whole can recover to a status similar to the original state in a short time after the removal of stress at a large ecosystem scale even under the higher intensity of human activities than global average level in coastal ecosystems, which implied a strong recovery capacity of soil microbial community even after intense human disturbance.

    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Microbial dynamics and soil physicochemical properties explain large scale variations in soil organic carbon
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-11
    Haicheng Zhang; Daniel S. Goll; Ying‐Ping Wang; Philippe Ciais; William R. Wieder; Rose Abramoff; Yuanyuan Huang; Bertrand Guenet; Anne‐Katrin Prescher; Raphael A. Viscarra Rossel; Pierre Barré; Claire Chenu; Guoyi Zhou; Xuli Tang

    First‐order organic matter decomposition models are used within most Earth System Models (ESMs) to project future global carbon cycling; these models have been criticized for not accurately representing mechanisms of soil organic carbon (SOC) stabilization and SOC response to climate change. New soil biogeochemical models have been developed, but their evaluation is limited to observations from laboratory incubations or few field experiments. Given the global scope of ESMs, a comprehensive evaluation of such models is essential using in situ observations of a wide range of SOC stocks over large spatial‐scales before their introduction to ESMs. In this study, we collected a set of in situ observations of SOC, litterfall and soil properties from 206 sites covering different forest and soil types in Europe and China. These data were used to calibrate the model MIMICS (The MIcrobial‐MIneral Carbon Stabilization model), which we compared to the widely used first‐order model CENTURY. We show that, compared to CENTURY, MIMICS more accurately estimates forest SOC concentrations and the sensitivities of SOC to variation in soil temperature, clay content and litter input. The ratios of microbial biomass to total SOC predicted by MIMICS agree well with independent observations from globally‐distributed forest sites. By testing different hypotheses regarding (by using alternative process representations) of the physicochemical constraints on SOC deprotection and microbial turnover in MIMICS, the errors of simulated SOC concentrations across sites were further decreased. We show that MIMICS can resolve the dominant mechanisms of SOC decomposition and stabilization and that it can be a reliable tool for predictions of terrestrial SOC dynamics under future climate change. It also allows us to evaluate at large scale the rapidly evolving understanding of SOC formation and stabilization based on laboratory and limited filed observation.

    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Warming counteracts defoliation‐induced mismatch by increasing herbivore‐plant phenological synchrony
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-10
    Ping Ren; Valérie Néron; Sergio Rossi; Eryuan Liang; Mathieu Bouchard; Annie Deslauriers

    Climate change is altering phenology; however, the magnitude of this change varies among taxa. Compared with phenological mismatch between plants and herbivores, synchronization due to climate has been less explored, despite its potential implications for trophic interactions. The earlier budburst induced by defoliation is a phenological strategy for plants against herbivores. Here, we tested whether warming can counteract defoliation‐induced mismatch by increasing herbivore‐plant phenological synchrony. We compared the larval phenology of spruce budworm and bud burst in balsam fir, black spruce and white spruce saplings subjected to defoliation in a controlled environment at temperatures of 12°C, 17°C and 22°C. Budburst in defoliated saplings occurred 6–24 days earlier than in the controls, thus mismatching needle development from larval feeding. This mismatch decreased to only 3–7 days, however, when temperatures warmed by 5°C and 10°C, leading to a resynchronization of the host with spruce budworm larvae. The increasing synchrony under warming counteracts the defoliation‐induced mismatch, disrupting trophic interactions and energy flow between forest ecosystem and insect populations. Our results suggest that the predicted warming may improve food quality and provide better growth conditions for larval development, thus promoting longer or more intense insect outbreaks in the future.

    更新日期:2020-01-13
  • Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-10
    Hubert du Pontavice; Didier Gascuel; Gabriel Reygondeau; Aurore Maureaud; William W. L. Cheung
    更新日期:2020-01-11
  • Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co‐occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-10
    Mattia Brambilla; Davide Scridel; Gaia Bazzi; Luca Ilahiane; Aaron Iemma; Paolo Pedrini; Enrico Bassi; Radames Bionda; Luigi Marchesi; Fulvio Genero; Norbert Teufelbauer; Remo Probst; Al Vrezec; Primož Kmecl; Tomaž Mihelič; Giuseppe Bogliani; Hans Schmid; Giacomo Assandri; Renato Pontarini; Veronika Braunisch; Raphaël Arlettaz; Dan Chamberlain
    更新日期:2020-01-11
  • Vegetation expansion in the subnival Hindu Kush Himalaya
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-09
    Karen Anderson; Dominic Fawcett; Anthony Cugulliere; Sophie Benford; Darren Jones; Ruolin Leng
    更新日期:2020-01-11
  • Integrated management for sustainable cropping systems: looking beyond the greenhouse balance at the field scale
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-10
    M. Quemada; L. Lassaletta; A. Leip; A. Jones; E. Lugato

    Cover crops (CC) promote the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC), which provides multiple benefits to agro‐ecosystems. However, additional nitrogen (N) inputs into the soil could offset the CO2 mitigation potential due to increasing N2O emissions. Integrated management approaches use organic and synthetic fertilizers to maximize yields while minimizing impacts by crop sequencing adapted to local conditions. The goal of this work was to test whether integrated management, centered on CC adoption, has the potential to maximize SOC stocks without increasing the soil greenhouse gas (GHG) net flux and other agro‐environmental impacts such as nitrate leaching. To this purpose, we ran the DayCent bio‐geochemistry model on 8,554 soil sampling locations across the European Union. We found that soil N2O emissions could be limited with simple crop sequencing rules, such as switching from leguminous to grass CC when the GHG flux was positive (source). Additional reductions of synthetic fertilizers applications are possible through better accounting for N available in green manures and from mineralization of soil reservoirs, while maintaining cash crop yields. Therefore, our results suggest that a CC integrated management approach can maximize the agro‐environmental performance of cropping systems while reducing environmental trade‐offs.

    更新日期:2020-01-11
  • Benthic Ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-09
    S Fabri‐Ruiz; B Danis; N Navarro; P Koubbi; R Laffont; T Saucède

    The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well‐delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so‐called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two‐step approach was developed combining species distribution modelling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modelling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO are discussed with regards to the modeled benthic ecoregions. Twelve benthic ecoregions were determined under Present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub‐Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of CCAMLR for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.

    更新日期:2020-01-11
  • Causes and consequences of eastern Australia’s 2019‐20 season of mega‐fires
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-08
    Rachael H. Nolan; Matthias M. Boer; Luke Collins; Víctor Resco de Dios; Hamish Clarke; Meaghan Jenkins; Belinda Kenny; Ross A. Bradstock

    The 2019‐20 fire season in eastern Australia is attracting considerable national and international attention. At the time of writing c. 3.8 million ha of mainly temperate forest have burnt in the state of New South Wales (NSW; NSW Rural Fire Service, 29/12/2019; Fig. 1a). Major blazes are also occurring in other states, including over 0.5 million ha in the state of Victoria (situated on the southern border of NSW).

    更新日期:2020-01-09
  • Turbid reefs moderate coral bleaching under climate‐related temperature stress
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-08
    Shannon Sully; Robert van Woesik
    更新日期:2020-01-08
  • Human exploitation shapes productivity–biomass relationships on coral reefs
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-08
    Renato A. Morais; Sean R. Connolly; David R. Bellwood
    更新日期:2020-01-08
  • Lakes as nitrous oxide sources in the boreal landscape
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-08
    Pirkko Kortelainen; Tuula Larmola; Miitta Rantakari; Sari Juutinen; Jukka Alm; Pertti J. Martikainen
    更新日期:2020-01-08
  • Anthropogenic global shifts in biospheric N and P concentrations and ratios and their impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, food security, and human health
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-08
    Josep Penuelas; Ivan Jannssens; Philippe Ciais; Michael Obersteiner; Jordi Sardans

    The availability of carbon (C) from high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and anthropogenic release of nitrogen (N) is increasing, but these increases are not paralleled by increases in levels of phosphorus (P). The current unstoppable changes in the stoichiometries of C and N relative to P have no historical precedent. We describe changes in P and N fluxes over the last five decades that have led to asymmetrical increases in P and N inputs to the biosphere. We identified widespread and rapid changes in N:P ratios in air, soil, water, and organisms and important consequences to the structure, function, and biodiversity of ecosystems. A mass‐balance approach found that the combined limited availability of P and N was likely to reduce C storage by natural ecosystems during the remainder of the 21st Century, and projected crop yields of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment indicated an increase in nutrient deficiency in developing regions if access to P fertilizer is limited. Imbalances of the N:P ratio would likely negatively affect human health, food security, and global economic and geopolitical stability, with feedbacks and synergistic effects on drivers of global environmental change, such as increasing levels of CO2, climatic warming, and increasing pollution. We summarize potential solutions for avoiding the negative impacts of global imbalances of N:P ratios on the environment, biodiversity, climate change, food security, and human health.

    更新日期:2020-01-08
  • The Net Landscape Carbon Balance – Integrating terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes in a managed boreal forest landscape in Sweden
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-08
    Jinshu Chi; Mats B. Nilsson; Hjalmar Laudon; Anders Lindroth; Jörgen Wallerman; Johan E.S. Fransson; Natascha Kljun; Tomas Lundmark; Mikaell Ottosson Löfvenius; Matthias Peichl

    The boreal biome exchanges large amounts of carbon (C) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) with the atmosphere and thus significantly affects the global climate. A managed boreal landscape consists of various sinks and sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC) across forests, mires, lakes, and streams. Due to the spatial heterogeneity, large uncertainties exist regarding the net landscape carbon balance (NLCB). In this study, we compiled terrestrial and aquatic fluxes of CO2, CH4, DOC, DIC, and harvested C obtained from tall‐tower eddy covariance measurements, stream monitoring, and remote sensing of biomass stocks for an entire boreal catchment (~68 km2) in Sweden to estimate the NLCB across the land‐water‐atmosphere continuum. Our results showed that this managed boreal forest landscape was a net C sink (NLCB = 39 g C m‐2 yr‐1) with the landscape‐atmosphere CO2 exchange being the dominant component, followed by the C export via harvest and streams. Accounting for the global warming potential of CH4, the landscape was a GHG sink (−237 g CO2‐eq/m2 yr‐1), thus providing a climate‐cooling effect. The CH4 flux contribution to the annual GHG budget increased from 0.6% during spring to 3.2% during winter. The aquatic C loss was most significant during spring contributing 8% to the annual NLCB. We further found that abiotic controls (e.g. air temperature and incoming radiation) regulated the temporal variability of the NLCB whereas land cover types (e.g. mire vs. forest) and management practices (e.g. clear‐cutting) determined their spatial variability. Our study advocates the need for integrating terrestrial and aquatic fluxes at the landscape scale based on tall‐tower eddy covariance measurements combined with biomass stock and stream monitoring to develop a holistic understanding of the NLCB of managed boreal forest landscapes and to better evaluate their potential for mitigating climate change.

    更新日期:2020-01-08
  • A substantial role of soil erosion in the land carbon sink and its future changes
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-08
    Zeli Tan; L. Ruby Leung; Hong‐Yi Li; Teklu Tesfa; Qing Zhu; Maoyi Huang

    Realistic representation of land carbon sink in climate models is vital for predicting carbon climate feedbacks in a changing world. Although soil erosion that removes land organic carbon has increased substantially since the onset of agriculture, it is rarely included in the current generation of climate models. Using an Earth system model with soil erosion represented, we estimated that on average soil erosion displaces 5% of newly fixed land organic carbon downslope annually in the continental US. In the lower Mississippi river basin and the Cascades, the fraction can be as large as 40%. About 12% of the eroded organic carbon is eventually exported to inland waters, which is equal to 14% of the simulated net carbon gain by terrestrial ecosystems. By comparing the eroded organic carbon export to rivers with the particulate organic carbon export to oceans, we demonstrated that a large fraction of the carbon export to rivers could have been mineralized in inland waters. Importantly, with a direct comparison of eroded and exported soil organic carbon and land net carbon uptake, we found that Earth system models that ignore soil erosion likely offset the erosional carbon loss by increasing heterotrophic respiration implicitly. But as soil erosion and heterotrophic respiration respond differently to a warming climate, this unrealistic compensation would lead to biased predictions of future land carbon sink.

    更新日期:2020-01-08
  • Moisture‐driven shift in the climate sensitivity of white spruce xylem anatomical traits is coupled to large‐scale oscillation patterns across northern treeline in northwest North America
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-07
    Jelena Lange; Marco Carrer; Michael F. J. Pisaric; Trevor J. Porter; Jeong‐Wook Seo; Mario Trouillier; Martin Wilmking
    更新日期:2020-01-07
  • Soil carbon loss with warming: New evidence from carbon‐degrading enzymes
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-07
    Ji Chen; Lars Elsgaard; Kees Jan van Groenigen; Jørgen Eivind Olesen; Zhi Liang; Yu Jiang; Poul Erik Lærke; Yuefang Zhang; Yiqi Luo; Bruce A. Hungate; Robert L. Sinsabaugh; Uffe Jørgensen

    Climate warming affects soil carbon (C) dynamics, with possible serious consequences for soil C stocks and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the mechanisms underlying changes in soil C storage are not well understood, hampering long‐term predictions of climate C‐feedbacks. The activity of the extracellular enzymes ligninase and cellulase can be used to track changes in the predominant C sources of soil microbes and can thus provide mechanistic insights into soil C loss pathways. Here we show, using meta‐analysis, that reductions in soil C stocks with warming are associated with increased ratios of ligninase to cellulase activity. Furthermore, whereas long‐term (≥5 years) warming reduced the soil recalcitrant C pool by 14%, short‐term warming had no significant effect. Together, these results suggest that warming stimulates microbial utilization of recalcitrant C pools, possibly exacerbating long‐term climate‐C feedbacks.

    更新日期:2020-01-07
  • Conversion of coastal wetlands, riparian wetlands, and peatlands increases greenhouse gas emissions: A global meta‐analysis
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-02
    Lishan Tan; Zhenming Ge; Xuhui Zhou; Shihua Li; Xiuzhen Li; Jianwu Tang
    更新日期:2020-01-02
  • Assessment of yield gaps on global grazed‐only permanent pasture using climate binning
    Glob. Change Biol. (IF 8.880) Pub Date : 2020-01-01
    Leonardo A. Monteiro; Andrew M. Allee; Eleanor E. Campbell; Lee R. Lynd; Johnny R. Soares; Deepak Jaiswal; Julianne de Castro Oliveira; Murilo dos Santos Vianna; Ashley E. Morishige; Gleyce K. D. A. Figueiredo; Rubens A. C. Lamparelli; Nathaniel D. Mueller; James Gerber; Luis A. B. Cortez; John J. Sheehan
    更新日期:2020-01-02
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