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Consumer Search, Steering, and Choice Overload Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-23 Volker Nocke, Patrick Rey
We develop a model of within-firm sequential, directed search and study a firm’s ability and incentive to steer consumers. We find that the firm often benefits from adopting a noisy positioning strategy, which limits the information available to consumers. This induces consumers to keep searching but discourages some of them from visiting the firm. This occurs even though the firm and the consumers
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On the Joint Evolution of Culture and Political Institutions: Elites and Civil Society Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-23 Alberto Bisin, Thierry Verdier
We provide an abstract model of the interaction between culture and political institutions. The model is designed to study the political economy of elites and civil society on the determination of long-run socioeconomic activity. We characterize conditions such that the cultural traits of elites and civil society and the institutions determining their relative political power complement (substitute)
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Impact of financial support expansion on restaurant entries and exits during the COVID-19 pandemic Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-23 Masato Oikawa, Koichiro Onishi
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State responses during the COVID-19 pandemic and their impacts on small businesses Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-23 Cathy Yang Liu, Luísa Nazareno
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The role of culture in family firms Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Mario Daniele Amore, Danny Miller
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Are Older People Aware of Their Cognitive Decline? Misperception and Financial Decision-Making Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Fabrizio Mazzonna, Franco Peracchi
Journal of Political Economy, Ahead of Print.
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The Microgeography of Housing Supply Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Nathaniel Baum-Snow, Lu Han
We perform a comprehensive neighborhood-level analysis of housing supply. Predictions of floor space and housing unit supply elasticities using our estimates average 0.5 and 0.3 across all urban neighborhoods in the United States, exhibiting greater variation within than between metro regions. New construction accounts for about 50% of unit supply responses, with important additional roles for teardowns
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Augmenting State Capacity for Child Development: Experimental Evidence from India Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Alejandro J. Ganimian, Karthik Muralidharan, Christopher R. Walters
We use a large-scale randomized experiment to study the impact of augmenting staffing in the world’s largest public early-childhood program: India’s Integrated Child Development Services. Adding a worker doubled net preschool instructional time and led to increases of 0.28σ and 0.46σ in math and language test scores after 18 months for children who remained enrolled in the program and 0.13σ and 0.10σ
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Recent Referees Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-18
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 132, Issue 4, April 2024.
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JPE Turnaround Times Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-18
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 132, Issue 4, Page 1389-1389, April 2024.
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Front Matter Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-18
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 132, Issue 4, April 2024.
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European SMEs’ growth: the role of market-based finance and public financial support Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Simone Boccaletti, Annalisa Ferrando, Emanuele Rossi, Monica Rossolini
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Financial Innovation in the Twenty-First Century: Evidence from US Patents Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Josh Lerner, Amit Seru, Nicholas Short, Yuan Sun
We explore the evolution of financial innovation using US finance patents. Patented financial innovations are substantial and increasingly economically important. Their subject matter has changed, consistent with the industry’s shift toward household investors and borrowers. Information technology (IT) and other nonfinancial firms drove the surge in financial patenting. The location of innovation shifted
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Mr. Keynes Meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Benjamin Born, Francesco D’Ascanio, Gernot J. Müller, Johannes Pfeifer
Journal of Political Economy, Ahead of Print.
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The Ant and the Grasshopper: Seasonality and the Invention of Agriculture Q. J. Econ. (IF 13.7) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Andrea Matranga
The Neolithic revolution saw the independent development of agriculture among at least seven unconnected hunter-gatherer populations. I propose that the rapid spread of agricultural techniques resulted from increased climatic seasonality causing hunter-gatherers to adopt a sedentary lifestyle and store food for the season of scarcity. Their newfound sedentary lifestyle and storage habits facilitated
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Forecasting carbon prices under diversified attention: A dynamic model averaging approach with common factors Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Zhikai Zhang, Yudong Wang, Yaojie Zhang, Qunwei Wang
To improve the predictability of carbon prices under diversified attention, this paper develops a dynamic model averaging approach with common factors (DMA-CF) which uses dimension-reduction techniques to extract factors from all models including the subsets of attention predictors and allows time-varying coefficients and model switching. The in-sample results using univariate models reveal the strong
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Portfolio pumping in mutual fund families J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Pingle Wang
This paper investigates portfolio pumping at the fund family level, where non-star fund managers strategically purchase stocks held by star funds in the family to inflate their quarter-end performance. Star funds that engage in such activities show inflated performance after 2002 when the Securities and Exchange Commission increased regulation on portfolio pumping. Stocks pumped by the strategy show
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Entrepreneurial prototyping: the role of purpose, prototype recycling, and skills bricolage Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-11 Steffen Paust, Steffen Korsgaard, Claus Thrane
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Social enterprise, renewable energy, and cap-and-trade under sustainable insurance Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Shi Chen, Hanhan Bai, Bin Wang, Jyh-Horng Lin
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Measuring macroeconomic tail risk J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Roberto Marfè, Julien Pénasse
This paper estimates consumption and GDP tail risk dynamics over the long run (1900–2020). Our predictive approach circumvents the scarcity of large macroeconomic crises by exploiting a rich information set covering 42 countries. This flexible approach does not require asset price information and can thus serve as a benchmark to evaluate the empirical validity of rare disaster models. Our estimates
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Competition and Information Leakage Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Markus Baldauf, Joshua Mollner
When seeking to trade in over-the-counter markets, institutional investors typically restrict both the number of potential counterparties they contact and the information they disclose (e.g., by requesting two-sided rather than one-sided quotes). We rationalize these important facts in a model featuring endogenous front-running. Although an additional contact intensifies competition and aids in finding
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Persuasion for the Long Run Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 James Best, Daniel Quigley
We examine persuasion when the sole source of credibility today is a desire to maintain a public record for accuracy. A long-run sender plays a cheap talk game with a sequence of short-run receivers, who observe some record of feedback about past accuracy. When all feedback is public (as is standard in repeated games), persuasion frequently requires inefficient on-path punishment—even if accuracy is
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Hidden costs of entering self-employment: the spouse’s psychological well-being Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Safiya Mukhtar Alshibani, Ingebjørg Kristoffersen, Thierry Volery
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Financial Access and Entrepreneurship by Gender: Evidence from Rural India Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Sandhya Garg, Samarth Gupta, Sushanta Mallick
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Untangling the complexity of innovativeness in new ventures: The interplay between causal entrepreneurial processes and social capital Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-08 Parisa Haim Faridian, Donald Neubaum, Siri Terjesen
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Oil boom, rent sharing, job prospects and human capital investment: Evidence from Chad Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Mahamat Moustapha
A large body of literature shows that the drop in educational attainment resulting from the resource boom is one of the major drivers of the so-called resource curse. This paper explores how upstream actions can avoid this resource curse and promote human capital development at the local level. Specifically, I examine how a rent-sharing model and the employment opportunities induced by an oil boom
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The carbon tax and the crisis in Australia’s National Electricity Market Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Ricardo Gonçalves, Flávio Menezes
Australia faced a severe energy crisis in 2022, which prompted the Australian Energy Market Operator to halt in National Electricity Market operations from June 15 to June 24. In this study, which examines half-hourly data from Australia’s National Electricity Market between 2010 and 2016, we aim to demonstrate the notable and intended consequences of the carbon tax, which was enacted in 2012 and repealed
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Shattered housing J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Jonas Happel, Yigitcan Karabulut, Larissa Schäfer, Şelale Tüzel
Do negative housing shocks lead to persistent changes in household attitudes toward housing and homeownership? We use the residential destruction of Germany during World War II (WWII) as a quasi-experiment and exploit the reasonably exogenous region-by-cohort variation in destruction exposure. We find that WWII-experiencing cohorts from high destruction regions are significantly less likely to be homeowners
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Examining spillovers and connectedness among commodities, inflation, and uncertainty: A quantile-VAR framework Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-07 Nikolaos Kyriazis, Stephanos Papadamou, Panayiotis Tzeremes, Shaen Corbet
This paper explores dynamic interactions and connectedness between inflation, commodities, and economic and monetary policy uncertainty during various market phases between 1985 and 2022, developing upon the innovative quantile-VAR methodology. Results reveal that inflation exhibits strong interlinkages with money supply, as would be expected, along with the price of gold during periods of low-price
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Price differences within retail gasoline markets Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-06 Carlos Hurtado, Julia González
This paper characterizes fueling stations' pricing strategies to study price differentials within retail gasoline markets. We use a unique dataset with stations' locations and daily gasoline prices in the major cities of the continental U.S. to classify cycler and non-cycler stations. We exploit station-level variability in pricing behavior within retail gasoline markets to show that cyclers charge
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Was Robert Gibrat right? A test based on the graphical model methodology Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-04 Marco Guerzoni, Luigi Riso, Marco Vivarelli
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Effects of immigration on native entrepreneurship in the US: an analysis of self-employment over 1980–2018 Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Bulent Unel
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Belief Overreaction and Stock Market Puzzles Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, Andrei Shleifer
We construct an index of long-term expected earnings growth for S&P 500 firms and show that it has remarkable power to jointly predict future errors in expectations and stock returns, in both the aggregate market and the cross section. The evidence supports a mechanism whereby good news causes investors to become too optimistic about long-term earnings growth. This leads to inflated stock prices and
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Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Gabriel Garber, Atif Mian, Jacopo Ponticelli, Amir Sufi
Brazil initiated a major credit expansion program through government banks in 2011. The program primarily targeted public sector workers with offers of payroll-backed loans. Using individual-level administrative data we find that the program led to a 15 percentage point rise in debt to initial income for public sector workers. We develop a new method for estimating workers' expected income growth,
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In-sample and out-of-sample Sharpe ratios of multi-factor asset pricing models J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-04-04 Raymond Kan, Xiaolu Wang, Xinghua Zheng
Using available return data, many multi-factor asset pricing models present impressive in-sample Sharpe ratios, significantly surpassing that of the market portfolio. Such a performance, however, contradicts the conventional wisdom in finance. Investors cannot realistically attain the in-sample Sharpe ratios. They obtain the out-of-sample Sharpe ratios, which are significantly lower. Estimation risk
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Robust green Schumpeterian endogenous growth model and spatial Kuznets curve Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Yuwen Zhou, Lixin Tian, Xiaoguang Yang, Bingyue Wan
This paper examines the green Schumpeterian endogenous growth model is robust. The principal findings of this paper can be summarized as follows. Firstly, diverging from the knife-edge condition typical in endogenous growth theory, the study reveals that the green Schumpeterian model exhibits dual knife-edge conditions. However, the dual knife-edge conditions are not necessary conditions for the emergence
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Exploring non-linear causal nexus between economic growth and energy consumption across various R&D regimes: Cross-country evidence from a PSTR model Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Mohsen Khezri, Jamal Mamkhezri, Almas Heshmati
This study endeavors to elucidate the divergent conclusions encountered in empirical research regarding the interplay of Economic Growth (EG) and Energy Consumption (EC). For this purpose, we employ the Panel Smooth Threshold Regression (PSTR) model to intricately examine the non-linear impacts of independent variables on EC and EG within a dataset encompassing 46 countries over the period from 1996
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Mitigating energy instability: The influence of trilemma choices, financial development, and technology advancements Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Chien-Chiang Lee, Farzan Yahya
This research investigates the applicability of the renowned “impossible trinity” hypothesis within the context of energy instability, contributing a unique perspective to the relevant literature. Through asymmetrical analysis of the optimal trilemma policy choices aimed at mitigating energy volatility, we dissect energy instability into three dimensions: consumption, generation, and price volatility
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The timing of voluntary delisting J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Alcino Azevedo, Gonul Colak, Izidin El Kalak, Radu Tunaru
For many firms, voluntarily delisting from a stock exchange can be optimal. We model an entrepreneur's incentives to voluntarily delist the firm as a trade-off between consumption of private benefits when listed and expected improvements in the firm's performance after delisting. Our model allows for heterogeneity across firms and countries, and various micro and macro shocks affect the delisting decision
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Price ceilings, market structure, and payout policies J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Xiongshi Li, Mao Ye, Miles Zheng
To prevent issuers from inflating their share prices, SEC Rule 10b-18 sets price ceilings on share repurchases through open markets. We find that market-structure reforms in the 1990s and 2000s dramatically increased share repurchases because they relaxed constraints on issuers competing with other buyers under price ceilings. The Tick Size Pilot Program, a controlled experiment that partially reversed
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The energy efficiency gap and barriers to investments: Evidence from a firm survey in The Netherlands Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-29 Leon Bremer, Sacha den Nijs, Henri L.F. de Groot
This study investigates the energy efficiency (EE) gap, referring to private agents who are not making seemingly profitable investments to reduce energy use. We deploy a questionnaire among firms in The Netherlands in which we ask them about investment behavior and barriers to investing in EE. A set of 16 barriers is constructed based on the literature. We find that most firms (70%) have made EE investments
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Assessing the vulnerability of oil-dependent countries in Europe Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-29 Carla Oliveira Henriques, Alexandre Lima, Duc Khuong Nguyen, Maria Elisabete Neves
In this article, we attempt to assess the vulnerability of European oil-dependent countries, using the Weighted Russell Directional Distance Model, which provides a composite index and allows for the analysis of adjustments in different proportions for the evaluation factors to reduce oil vulnerability. Our empirical findings show heterogeneous degrees of vulnerability to oil across countries due to
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Do institutional dimensions matter at different stages of the entrepreneurial process? A multi-country study Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Claudia Alvarez, Tatiana Lopez, David Urbano
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Mediated Collusion Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Juan Ortner, Takuo Sugaya, Alexander Wolitzky
Cartels and bidding rings are often facilitated by intermediaries, who recommend prices/bids to firms and can impose penalties (such as reverting to competitive behavior in future interactions) if these recommendations are not followed. Motivated by such cases, we study correlated equilibria in first-price procurement auctions with complete information, where bidders who disobey their recommendations
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Re-examining crude oil and natural gas price relationship: Evidence from time-varying regime-switching models Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Mübariz Hasanli
In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices. Using a more flexible modelling approach, we find that the relationship between these two prices are more complex than previously documented. Specifically, we find that both the short-run and long-run relationships are highly nonlinear and shifted considerably over time. The effects of oil prices on gas prices fell
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Monetary policy uncertainty and the price bubbles in energy markets Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Jinyu Yang, Dayong Dong, Chao Liang, Yang Cao
We examine the relationship between the monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) and the price bubbles in U.S. oil futures, including WTI crude oil future, heating oil future, and gasoline future. The Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model is firstly used to analyze and validate the price bubbles of U.S. oil futures. We find that (1) the timing of local peaks of MPU closely aligns with the occurrence
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The pricing of U.S. Treasury floating rate notes J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Jonathan S. Hartley, Urban J. Jermann
Since January 2014, the U.S. Treasury has been issuing floating rate notes (FRNs). These notes pay quarterly interest based on an average of the constant maturity rates of newly issued three-month T-bills during the quarter. We show how to price such FRNs. We estimate that they have been paying excess interest between 3 and 42 basis points above the implied interest of other Treasury securities. We
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Sustainability or performance? Ratings and fund managers’ incentives J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Nickolay Gantchev, Mariassunta Giannetti, Rachel Li
We explore how mutual fund managers and investors react when the tradeoff between a fund's sustainability and performance becomes salient. Following the introduction of Morningstar's sustainability ratings (the “globe” ratings), mutual funds increased their holdings of sustainable stocks to attract flows. Such sustainability-driven trades, however, underperformed, impairing the funds’ overall performance
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The role of cognitive legitimacy in social entrepreneurship: a multilevel analysis Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-03-26 Xing Li, Wanxiang Cai, Niels Bosma
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Credit default swaps and corporate carbon emissions in Japan Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-26 Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, Sumiko Takaoka
We examine the relationship between carbon emissions and the market perception of firms’ default risk, measured by corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads in Japan. While corporate revenue size is the most significant factor of carbon emissions, pressure from investors has a significant decreasing effect on carbon emissions, which is greater for investment-grade companies. We find that carbon emissions
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Heterogeneity in PhD entrepreneurship: strategic alignment of institutional, organisational, and individual factors Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-03-25 Alessandro Muscio, Fumi Kitagawa
Much of the existing research on PhD entrepreneurship is focused on Academic Spin-Offs (ASOs) within the parent institution’s formal intellectual property (IP) structure. Cross-level analysis of a survey administered to 23,500 PhD students in Italy shows the heterogeneity of PhD students’ entrepreneurial activities, which, in addition to ASOs, include start-ups, corporate spin-offs and other types
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Wired together: Integration and efficiency in European electricity markets Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-25 Cenk C. Karahan, Attila Odabaşı, C. Sani Tiryaki
This study investigates the efficiency dynamics of spot and futures electricity markets across a sample of European countries, while taking into account the impact of market couplings. The analysis employs three distinct efficiency measures, namely entropy, Hurst measure, and fractal dimension, to examine the markets of ten different countries. Specifically, entropy is used to gauge the randomness
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A racial identity approach to entrepreneurship: the lived experiences of African American and Black entrepreneurs Small Bus. Econ. (IF 7.096) Pub Date : 2024-03-23 Susana C. Santos, Eric W. Liguori, Michael H. Morris, SherRhonda R. Gibbs
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Does aging affect renewable energy? The role of extreme events and economic development Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-24 Bo Sui, Susan Sunila Sharma, Liu-Yang Yao, Guo-Hua Ni, Chun-Ping Chang
The world population structure and the global energy system are undergoing profound changes. Research on the relationships between population structure and energy changes is necessary for global sustainable development. This research mainly investigates the impact of aging on renewable energy development by using the data of 212 countries from 2000 to 2021 and further discusses the demand and supply
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Forecasting the VaR of the crude oil market: A combination of mixed data sampling and extreme value theory Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-24 Yongjian Lyu, Fanshu Qin, Rui Ke, Mo Yang, Jianing Chang
When forecasting the value-at-risk (VaR) of the crude oil market, traditional models often fail to capture the information embedded in low-frequency macro-variables and tend to underestimate the high quantiles caused by adopting commonly used distributions. To address these problems, this paper proposes a new approach, which combines the generalized autoregressive condition heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-mixed
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Global climate change mitigation technology diffusion: A network perspective Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-24 Jianhua Zhang, Dimitris Ballas, Xiaolong Liu
There is a rapidly growing number of studies on transnational climate change mitigation technology (CCMT) diffusion. Most of these studies have adopted a bilateral perspective, treating countries as primary agents driving the diffusion process. However, CCMT diffusion typically arises from the interactions between firms and involves strong network effects. In this paper, we explore the global CCMT
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Inform me when it matters: Cost salience, energy consumption, and efficiency investments Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-24 Puja Singhal
Using a large-scale natural experiment in staggered billing dates for energy use in Germany and a unique billing dataset for multi-apartment buildings, this paper shows that the month of billing is a significant determinant of heat energy consumption. A large set of residential buildings demand significantly more heat energy annually, when the bill is issued during off-winter months. The paper finds
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Impacts of a Large-Scale Parenting Program: Experimental Evidence from Chile Journal of Political Economy (IF 9.637) Pub Date : 2024-03-22 Pedro Carneiro, Emanuela Galasso, Italo Lopez Garcia, Paula Bedregal, Miguel Cordero
We present results from a large-scale experimental evaluation of a national parenting program in Chile. The program is low cost: it lasts only 6–8 weeks, and it is administered to groups of eight to 12 parents. It is implemented by the national health system, taking advantage of its existing physical infrastructure and human resources. We find that 3 years after the interventions ends, children whose
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Sentiment and energy price volatility: A nonlinear high frequency analysis Energy Econ. (IF 12.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-22 Fredj Jawadi, David Bourghelle, Philippe Rozin, Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou, Gazi Salah Uddin
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Robo advisors and access to wealth management J. Financ. Econ. (IF 8.238) Pub Date : 2024-03-22 Michael Reher, Stanislav Sokolinski
We investigate how access to robo-advisors impacts the financial investment and welfare of less-wealthy investors. We leverage a quasi-experiment where a major U.S. robo-advisor significantly expands access by reducing its account minimum, increasing participation by middle-class investors but not the poor. A benchmark model calibrated to portfolio-level data rationalizes this increase: middle-class