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Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 Emilio Calvano, Giacomo Calzolari, Vincenzo Denicolò, Sergio Pastorello
Increasingly, pricing algorithms are supplanting human decision making in real marketplaces. To inform the competition policy debate on the possible consequences of this development, we experiment with pricing algorithms powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in controlled environments (computer simulations), studying the interaction among a number of Q-learning algorithms in a workhorse oligopoly
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Voter Turnout with Peer Punishment American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 David K. Levine, Andrea Mattozzi
We introduce a model where social norms of voting participation are strategically chosen by competing political parties and determine voters' turnout. Social norms must be enforced through costly peer monitoring and punishment. When the cost of enforcement of social norms is low, the larger party is always advantaged. Otherwise, in the spirit of Olson (1965), the smaller party may be advantaged. Our
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Sources of Inaction in Household Finance: Evidence from the Danish Mortgage Market American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 Steffen Andersen, John Y. Campbell, Kasper Meisner Nielsen, Tarun Ramadorai
We build an empirical model to decompose delays in mortgage refinancing into time-dependent inaction (a low probability of responding to a refinancing incentive in a given quarter) and state- dependent inaction (a psychological addition to the financial cost of refinancing). We estimate the model on high-quality administrative panel data from Denmark, where mortgage refinancing without cash-out is
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Misperceived Social Norms: Women Working Outside the Home in Saudi Arabia American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 Leonardo Bursztyn, Alessandra L. González, David Yanagizawa-Drott
We show that the vast majority of young married men in Saudi Arabia privately support women working outside the home (WWOH) and substantially underestimate support by other similar men. Correcting these beliefs increases men's (costly) willingness to help their wives search for jobs. Months later, wives of men whose beliefs were corrected are more likely to have applied and interviewed for a job outside
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Business-Cycle Anatomy American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 George-Marios Angeletos, Fabrice Collard, Harris Dellas
We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other
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Liquidity versus Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel
We use variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long-term obligations with no change in short-term payments (“wealth”), and reducing short-term payments with approximately no change in long-term obligations (“liquidity”). Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences research designs with administrative data measuring default and consumption, we find
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Upping the Ante: The Equilibrium Effects of Unconditional Grants to Private Schools American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 Tahir Andrabi, Jishnu Das, Asim I. Khwaja, Selcuk Ozyurt, Niharika Singh
This paper tests for financial constraints as a market failure in education in a low-income country. In an experimental setup, unconditional cash grants are allocated to one private school or all private schools in a village. Enrollment increases in both treatments, accompanied by infrastructure investments. However, test scores and fees only increase in the setting of all private schools along with
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Patronage and Selection in Public Sector Organizations American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 Emanuele Colonnelli, Mounu Prem, Edoardo Teso
In all modern bureaucracies, politicians retain some discretion in public employment decisions, which may lead to frictions in the selection process if political connections substitute for individual competence. Relying on detailed matched employer-employee data on the universe of public employees in Brazil over 1997–2014, and on a regression discontinuity design in close electoral races, we establish
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Job Matching under Constraints American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Fuhito Kojima, Ning Sun, Ning Neil Yu
Studying job matching in a Kelso-Crawford framework, we consider arbitrary constraints imposed on sets of doctors that a hospital can hire. We characterize all constraints that preserve the substitutes condition (for all revenue functions that satisfy the substitutes condition), a critical condition on hospitals' revenue functions for well-behaved competitive equilibria. A constraint preserves the
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Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer
We study the rationality of individual and consensus professional forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which examines predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We report two key findings: forecasters typically over-react to their individual news, while consensus forecasts under-react to average forecaster news
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Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Emil Verner, Győző Gyöngyösi
We examine the consequences of a sudden increase in household debt burdens by exploiting variation in exposure to household foreign currency debt during Hungary's late-2008 currency crisis. The revaluation of debt burdens causes higher default rates and a collapse in spending. These responses lead to a worse local recession, driven by a decline in local demand, and negative spillover effects on nearby
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Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Kurt G. Lunsford
I show that the nature of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) forward guidance language shapes the private sector’s responses to monetary policy statements. From February 2000 to June 2003, the FOMC only gave forward guidance about economic outlook risks, and an increase in the expected federal funds rate path caused stock prices to increase, Treasury term premia to fall, and GDP growth forecasts
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Nonrivalry and the Economics of Data American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Charles I. Jones, Christopher Tonetti
Data is nonrival: a person’s location history, medical records, and driving data can be used by any number of firms simultaneously. Nonrivalry leads to increasing returns and implies an important role for market structure and property rights. Who should own data? What restrictions should apply to the use of data? We show that in equilibrium, firms may not adequately respect the privacy of consumers
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Rich Pickings? Risk, Return, and Skill in Household Wealth American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Laurent Bach, Laurent E. Calvet, Paolo Sodini
This paper empirically investigates the portfolios of wealthy households and their implications for the dynamics of inequality. Using an administrative panel of all Swedish residents, we document that returns on financial wealth are on average 4% higher per year for households in the top 1% compared to the median household. These high average returns are primarily compensations for high levels of systematic
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Ultimatum Bargaining with Rational Inattention American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Doron Ravid
A seller bargains with a rationally inattentive buyer (Sims 2003) over a good of random quality. After observing quality, the seller makes a take-it-or-leave-it offer. The buyer pays attention to the seller's product and offer at a cost proportional to expected entropy reduction. Because attention is free off-path, multiple equilibria emerge, many of which are efficient. A trembling-hand-like refinement
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Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador
We establish that creditor beliefs regarding future borrowing can be self-fulfilling, leading to multiple equilibria with markedly different debt accumulation patterns. We characterize such indeterminacy in the Eaton-Gersovitz sovereign debt model augmented with long maturity bonds. Two necessary conditions for the multiplicity are: (i) the government is more impatient than foreign creditors, and (ii)
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An Estimated Structural Model of Entrepreneurial Behavior American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 John Bailey Jones, Sangeeta Pratap
Using a rich panel of owner-operated New York dairy farms, we provide new evidence on entrepreneurial behavior. We formulate a dynamic model of farms facing uninsured risks and financial constraints. Farmers derive nonpecuniary benefits from operating their businesses. We estimate the model via simulated minimum distance, matching both production and financial data. We find that financial factors and
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Cities in Bad Shape: Urban Geometry in India American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 Mariaflavia Harari
The spatial layout of cities is an important feature of urban form, highlighted by urban planners but overlooked by economists. This paper investigates the causal economic implications of city shape in India. I measure cities' geometric properties over time using satellite imagery and historical maps. I develop an instrument for urban shape based on geographic obstacles encountered by expanding cities
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Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 Luigi Bocola, Guido Lorenzoni
Foreign currency debt is considered a source of financial instability in emerging markets. We propose a theory in which liability dollarization arises from an insurance motive of domestic savers. Since financial crises are associated to depreciations, savers ask for a risk premium when saving in local currency. This force makes domestic currency debt expensive, and incentivizes borrowers to issue foreign
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Using Aggregated Relational Data to Feasibly Identify Network Structure without Network Data American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Tyler H. McCormick, Mengjie Pan
Social network data is often prohibitively expensive to collect, limiting empirical network research. Typical economic network mapping requires (1) enumerating a census, (2) eliciting the names of all network links for each individual, (3) matching the list of social connections to the census, and (4) repeating (1)-(3) across many networks. In settings requiring field surveys, steps (2)-(3) can be
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Long-Run Growth of Financial Data Technology American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 Maryam Farboodi, Laura Veldkamp
"Big data" financial technology raises concerns about market inefficiency. A common concern is that the technology might induce traders to extract others' information, rather than to produce information themselves. We allow agents to choose how much they learn about future asset values or about others' demands, and we explore how improvements in data processing shape these information choices, trading
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A Behavioral New Keynesian Model American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 Xavier Gabaix
This paper presents a framework for analyzing how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy. The model is a tractable and parsimonious enrichment of the widely-used New Keynesian model – with one main new “cognitive discounting” parameter, which quantifies how poorly agents understand future economic disturbances. That myopia parameter, in turn, affects the power of monetary and fiscal
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Multidimensional Skills, Sorting, and Human Capital Accumulation American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 Jeremy Lise, Fabien Postel-Vinay
We construct a structural model of on-the-job search in which workers differ in skills along several dimensions (cognitive, manual, interpersonal...) and sort themselves into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements along those same dimensions. We further allow for skills to be accumulated when used, and eroded away when not used. We estimate the model using occupation-level measures of skill requirements
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Stability and Bayesian Consistency in Two-Sided Markets American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 Qingmin Liu
We propose a criterion of stability for two-sided markets with asymmetric information. A central idea is to formulate off-path beliefs conditional on counterfactual pairwise deviations and on-path beliefs in the absence of such deviations. A matching-belief configuration is stable if the matching is individually rational with respect to the system of on-path beliefs and is not blocked with respect
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Escalation of Scrutiny: The Gains from Dynamic Enforcement of Environmental Regulations American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 Wesley Blundell, Gautam Gowrisankaran, Ashley Langer
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses a dynamic approach to enforcing air pollution regulations, with repeat offenders subject to high fines and designation as high priority violators (HPV). We estimate the value of dynamic enforcement by developing and estimating a dynamic model of a plant and regulator, where plants decide when to invest in pollution abatement technologies. We use a fixed
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Field Experiments and the Practice of Economics American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee delivered his Prize Lecture on Sunday 8 December 2019, at the Aula Magna, Stockholm University.
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Risk Premia and the Real Effects of Money American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Sebastian Di Tella
This paper proposes a flexible-price theory of the role of money in an economy with incomplete idiosyncratic risk sharing. When the risk premium goes up, money provides a safe store of value that prevents interest rates from falling, reducing investment. Investment is too high during booms when risk is low, and too low during slumps when risk is high. Monetary policy cannot correct this: money is superneutral
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Experimentation, Innovation, and Economics American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Michael Kremer
The experimental method not only helps identify causal relationships, but also provides economists with a rich sense of context, focuses research on specific practical questions, stimulates collaboration with practitioners and specialists from other fields, and allows for rapid iteration. In this lecture, I present a series of examples illustrating how together these features make the experimental
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Field Experiments and the Practice of Policy American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Esther Duflo
Esther Duflo delivered her Prize Lecture on Sunday 8 December 2019, at the Aula Magna, Stockholm University.
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Relational Contracting, Negotiation, and External Enforcement American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Joel Watson, David A. Miller, Trond E. Olsen
We study relational contracting and renegotiation in environments with external enforcement of long-term contractual arrangements. An external, long-term contract governs the stage games the contracting parties will play in the future (depending on verifiable stage-game outcomes) until they renegotiate. In a contractual equilibrium, the parties choose their individual actions rationally, they jointly
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Home Values and Firm Behavior American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis, Gabor Pinter
The homes of those in charge of firms are an important source of finance for ongoing businesses. We use firm level accounting data, transaction level house price data and loan level residential mortgage data from the UK to show that a £1 increase in the value of the residential real estate of a firm’s directors increases the firm’s investment and wage bill by £0.03 each. These effects run through smaller
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The Competitive Impact of Vertical Integration by Multiproduct Firms American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Fernando Luco, Guillermo Marshall
We study the impact of vertical integration on pricing incentives in multiproduct industries. To do so, we exploit recent variation in vertical structure in the US carbonated-beverage industry. While the elimination of double marginalization with vertical integration is normally characterized as procompetitive, economic theory predicts that it may cause anticompetitive price increases in multiproduct
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Incentivized Kidney Exchange American Economic Review (IF 5.561) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Tayfun Sönmez, M. Utku Ünver, M. Bumin Yenmez