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Assessing border walls’ varied impacts on terrorist group diffusion Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-09-18 Andrew S Rosenberg, Nazli Avdan
Do border walls inhibit the spread of transnational terrorism? Previous research has primarily measured the volume of terrorism without explicitly modeling its diffusion or considering how walls might affect different groups differently. To address these oversights, the study adopts a network-based approach, analyzing the impact of border walls on the spread of violence among 63 extremist organizations
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Using committee amendments to improve estimates of state foreign policy preferences Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-09-14 Courtenay R Monroe, Nathan W Monroe, Shengkuo Hu
Ideal point estimates, used as measures of state foreign policy preference, are typically constructed from country votes cast on resolutions in the plenary of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). In this article, we argue that revealed preferences on UNGA votes are dependent on the procedural context in which they are cast. We develop a theory of measurement and show empirically that constructing
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Arming to fight: Rebel-government militarization and the escalation of violence in civil wars Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-08-19 Oliver Pamp, Paul W. Thurner, Paul Binder, Andreas Mehltretter
Do more weapons in the hands of rebel groups escalate civil wars? We address this question using a recently published dataset on the armaments of 270 non-state actors. We provide a comprehensive overview of their arsenals and utilize this information in a dyadic analysis that also considers the effects of governments’ weapons stock. We show that better-armed rebel groups are involved in higher-intensity
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Media impact on perceptions in postwar societies: Insights from Nepal Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-08-05 Sabine C Carey, Christian Gläßel, Katrin Paula
Can media have a lasting impact on attitudes in postwar countries? A lingering impact of media could substantially shape peace and security in postwar societies. Our quasi-experimental research design and original survey data utilize variation in the reception of an anti-government radio station in Nepal's Terai region, which was shut down after violent clashes. Our results show that individuals with
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Internal drivers of self-rule referendums Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-07-26 Harriet Goers, Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, Laia Balcells
From Catalonia to Kurdistan to Scotland, referendums have increasingly become popular strategies of self-rule movements. Despite this, many referendums are considered failures by the movements (revealing a dearth of support), some are marred by violence, and few garner external backing. Given this, when are they likely to be employed? We argue that internal competition serves as one driving force for
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If we cooperate together, we intervene together: Defense cooperation agreements and support to conflict parties Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-05-08 Sara Norrevik, Mehwish Sarwari
As governments increasingly turn to defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) to institutionalize defense relations, there is little scholarly knowledge of the impact of these agreements in civil wars. Are DCA partners more likely to militarily intervene in civil conflicts together compared with countries without DCAs? While studies show that formal alliance commitments impact the likelihood of parties
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Commitment problems and Russia's invasion of Ukraine Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-04-27 Bradley C. Smith
This paper applies the logic of commitment problems to deliver insights about the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the canonical crisis bargaining framework, an anticipated power shift can cause bargaining failure. Bargaining breaks down in this context because a declining state reasons that fighting in the present from a strong position is preferable to negotiating in the future from a weaker
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Treaty legalization, security interests, and ratification of multilateral disarmament treaties Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-04-24 Michal Onderco, Valerio Vignoli
Multilateral treaties are essential for the effectiveness of global disarmament efforts. Ratification delays have deep repercussions on international cooperation for disarmament. Yet what determines their duration? In this paper, we offer the first comprehensive study of multilateral disarmament treaty ratification, covering the period between 1976 and 2020. We test the effects of treaty legalization
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The bargaining framework and Russia's invasion of Ukraine Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Scott Wolford
I introduce this issue's symposium on the Russo-Ukrainian War by giving a brief overview of the bargaining framework, which asks why states sometimes use war to resolve disputes despite common knowledge that fighting is wasteful. I describe two types of mechanism—costly war and costly peace—and briefly discuss each symposium contribution in relation to its proposed mechanism(s). I also discuss the
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Crisis bargaining, domestic politics and Russia's invasion of Ukraine Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Sasha de Vogel, Jessica S Sun
How do domestic political considerations constrain or enable the initiation of interstate wars? We answer this question in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While prominent theories predict that domestic constraints reduce the likelihood of conflict, we show how structural features of Putin's regime rendered these concerns moot. Fighting was not likely to shift the domestic distribution
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Why gendered quantification trends are a problem: Post-traumatic growth arguments and the civil war malestream Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-04-17 Maren Duvendack, Ulrike G Theuerkauf
Feminist scholars have long debated quantification trends in the social sciences. Of particular concern has been the extent to which the prestige assigned to quantitative methods may reinforce ‘malestream’ dynamics in academic knowledge production. ‘Malestream’ dynamics include the (implicit or explicit) privileging of a male-centric lens in the research process and the association of ‘hard’ numerical
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Information problems and Russia's invasion of Ukraine Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-04-11 Işıl İdrisoğlu, William Spaniel
This paper explores the role of asymmetric information as a cause of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In the classic bargaining model of war, negotiations break down when one side privately believes that it is sufficiently more likely perform better in battle than the other side expects. There is strong evidence that this mechanism was at play on the eve of the invasion. Chronic problems with Russian
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UN peacekeeping presence and local food security outcomes Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-03-29 Sara Lindberg Bromley, Nina von Uexkull
A now extensive literature examines effects of international peacekeeping on conflict-affected countries’ war-to-peace transitions. Still, we know little about how impactful peacekeeping is in stemming a wider set of hardships affecting host communities, such as hunger. Addressing this gap, we theorize and empirically examine the relationship between local UN peacekeeping deployment and food security
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Nuclear weapons and interstate conflict behavior: The moderating influence of civil–military relations Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-03-25 Rizwan Asghar
Do nuclear weapons deter aggression or make states more likely to engage in conflict? I argue that we can explain whether and when nuclear capabilities increase state belligerence by examining the role of domestic institutions that shape state security policy. This study provides evidence that nuclear weapons have an emboldening effect on conflict initiation by elevating state capacity but that whether
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Peacekeeping operations and shadow economy growth in host countries Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Robert G Blanton, Dursun Peksen
While a great deal of scholarship has been devoted to peacekeeping operations (PKOs), relatively few works have examined their economic effects. Toward better understanding this area of inquiry, we examine the impact of PKOs on the growth of the shadow economies of host countries. We posit that the conflict cessation brought about by peacekeeping missions, as well as their stimulative economic effects
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International virtue signaling: How female combatants shape state support for armed rebellion Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Lindsey A Goldberg
International audiences view rebel groups with female combatants as more virtuous and legitimate because of gender norms regarding women and war. As actors who care about their international reputation, states often virtue-signal their support for popular humanitarian norms—norms such as promoting gender inclusivity in political processes. I argue that this performative dynamic motivates states to
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The importance of immigrants on American intervention in international crises Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Tyler Kustra, Patrick James
Immigrants have a substantial impact on US foreign policy: doubling the proportion of the American voters who were born in a country yields a 4% increase in the probability that the United States will intervene in a crisis involving that country. This result is significant at the 1% level. Moreover, the immigrants’ level of education and income do not affect this result. Apart from unemployment and
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The implementation of truth commission recommendations: Exploring the ‘beyond words’ database for Latin America Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-02-13 Elin Skaar, Adriana Rudling, Lisa-Marie Måseidvåg Selvik, Eric Wiebelhaus-Brahm, Jemima García-Godos
We know little about the processes surrounding the formulation and implementation of truth commission recommendations (TCRs). This article introduces the Beyond Words database, which systematically identifies and tracks the formulation and implementation processes behind 960 recommendations from 13 truth commissions established across Latin America between 1983 and 2012. The database offers information
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Ethnic preferences, domestic audiences and military coalition formation Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-02-05 Roman Hlatky, Joshua Landry
Ethnically motivated domestic pressure can incentivize leaders to support co-ethnics via military cooperation during international crises. When a leader requires the support of an ethnic group to retain office, she may face pressure to support foreign co-ethnics involved in an international crisis. Supporting co-ethnics can bolster a leader domestically, but constraints on the executive limit a leader's
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Civil war and state support for conventional arms control Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-01-11 Tobias Risse
Conventional arms control imposes costs and benefits on states in civil wars: it restricts their own armament and that of rebel groups. I argue that the benefits outweigh the costs because states design conventional arms control measures that primarily curb rebels’ armament. I investigate these arguments through regression analyses of United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting records and a content
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Rebel network theory: The case of Moro Islamic Liberation Front Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2024-01-04 Sweta Sen
This paper explores rebel legitimacy building by investigating rebel network formation during civil wars. Through a longitudinal study of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, it examines various mechanisms through which a non-state armed group (NSAG) embellishes and enhances its legitimacy among domestic and international support networks. The research also theorizes the complex interaction between domestic
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Rugged terrain, forest coverage, and insurgency in Myanmar Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-05-09 Wilfred Chow, Enze Han
This paper examines whether non-monotonic patterns exist between forest coverage and conflict processes in Myanmar. Specifically, the paper finds that forest coverage and civil conflict follow an i...
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School of influence: Human rights challenges in US foreign military training Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-03-20 Carla Martinez Machain
Can military training decrease human rights violations by security forces? The case of foreign military training is a complicated one because often the aim of the training itself is to address huma...
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Trust, cooperation, and the tradeoffs of reciprocity Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-03-15 Kyle Haynes, Brandon K. Yoder
This article demonstrates that foreign policies of reciprocity entail previously unrecognized tradeoffs. The conventional wisdom in international relations holds that reciprocating another state's ...
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A game of domestic imperatives: Audience costs and conflict avoidance Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-02-23 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
I propose an audience costs game with considerations added from selectorate theory. We see that winning coalition and selectorate size have competing effects on conflict choices in an audience cost...
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Private military and security companies and human rights abuses: The impact of CEOs’ military background Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-02-21 Elizabeth Radziszewski
This study examines how military background of chief executive officers (CEOs) of private military and security companies (PMSCs) that intervened in Iraq from 2003 to 2019 affected the frequency wi...
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Lethal aid and human security: The effects of US security assistance on civilian harm in low- and middle-income countries Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-02-14 Patricia L. Sullivan
Since 2001, there has been a dramatic increase in the amount of US military aid flowing to foreign governments. What is the impact of this aid on human security? Drawing on recent research on the p...
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Why don’t democracies fight each other? The role of territorial issues Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-02-14 Andrew P Owsiak, John A Vasquez
Why don't democracies fight each other? Since discovering this empirical regularity, scholars have assumed that the answer must lie with regime type (i.e. democracy). Our paper provides and tests a...
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The limits of shame: UN shaming, NGO repression, and women's protests Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-02-10 Bimal Adhikari, Jeffrey King, Lie Philip Santoso
Within the human rights literature, a growing number of studies have focused on the factors that explain engagement in protests. Most prior studies of this type give little or no consideration to t...
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Beyond deterrence: Uncertain stability in the nuclear era Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-02-10 Kyungkook Kang, Jacek Kugler
This paper identifies profound contradictions within and across nuclear deterrence strategies that evolved in response to the proliferation and modernization of nuclear weapons. To reconcile theory...
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Exogenous factors and the crisis bargaining process Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-02-07 Vesna Danilovic, Joe Clare
We examine whether bargaining behavior alters the initially expected effects of exogenous factors, such as power balance, issues, and domestic regimes, influencing crisis outcomes. Our argument is ...
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The problem with accidental war Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-02-02 Stephen L. Quackenbush
Many theories of international conflict are based on the premise that war can occur by accident. The basic idea of accidental war is that crisis situations can spiral out of control, leading to the...
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Explaining the conflicting behavior of inexperienced and experienced political elites Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-01-26 Lisa J. Carlson, Raymond Dacey
The empirical results on the influence of inexperience and experience in decision making are inconclusive. This paper offers a resolution to the puzzle of how empirical studies that advance contrad...
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Sticking it out: Instability, regime type, and personnel withdrawals from UN peacekeeping operations Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-01-18 Molly M. Melin, Jacob D. Kathman
What explains UN member-state personnel withdrawals from peacekeeping operations? Withdrawals can occur at the behest of contributor states, as contributions are voluntary. We argue that withdrawal...
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Rebel institutions and negotiated peace Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2023-01-03 Karen Albert
Civil wars are difficult to resolve through negotiated settlements. Rebel institutions are thought to make negotiations more successful. I show, however, that this positive association does not hol...
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Relative political capacity: A dataset to evaluate the performance of nations, 1960–2018 Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-12-29 Ali Fisunoglu, Kyungkook Kang, Tad Kugler, Marina Arbetman-Rabinowitz
Measuring the ability of governments to implement policy remains one of the most significant questions of political science. This paper presents the latest iteration of the Relative Political Capac...
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The scars of violence and repression on founding elections: Evidence from Spain Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-12-12 Toni Rodon
Do violence during a civil war and its aftermath leave a mark on political behaviour? In this article I study how violence perpetrated by the left and repression by the right during and after the S...
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Intervention, war expansion, and the international sources of civil war Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-11-03 Hans-Inge Langø
Why do some civil wars turn into interstate wars? I analyze an asymmetric information model of civil war onset, rebel-sided intervention, and interstate retaliation with endogenous stakes. Intersta...
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External intelligence assistance and the recipient government’s violence against civilians Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-10-03 Wakako Maekawa
During a civil war, does external intelligence assistance reduce violence perpetrated by the recipient government against civilians? I contend that intelligence assistance reduces violence against ...
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The lesser evil? Experimental evidence on the strength of nuclear and chemical weapon “taboos” Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-09-05 Michal Smetana, Marek Vranka, Ondrej Rosendorf
We present findings of a survey experiment on a sample of 2350 American and British citizens, in which we examined attitudes towards nuclear and chemical strikes. Our findings demonstrate that even...
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Why incumbents perpetrate election violence during civil war Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-08-15 Thomas Edward Flores, Irfan Nooruddin
Civil conflict increases incumbents’ vulnerability, expands their coercive capacity, enervates public good provision, and stifles public opposition. Consequently, we expect that elections held duri...
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Revisiting the security–development nexus: Human security and the effects of IMF adjustment programmes Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-07-06 Bernhard Reinsberg, Daniel O Shaw, Louis Bujnoch
The concept of ‘human security’ holds promise of capturing the strong connections between economic development and personal security that has ushered in the debate about the ‘security−development n...
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Hitting back or holding back in cyberspace: Experimental evidence regarding Americans’ responses to cyberattacks Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-06-29 Marcelo M Leal, Paul Musgrave
Theorists offer many predictions about how Americans will respond to significant cyberattacks but systematic evaluations of American public opinion regarding these issues remain rare. We present re...
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Environmental pressures and pro-government militias: Evidence from the Philippines Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-06-28 Joshua Eastin, Steven T Zech
This study analyzes whether climate disasters and climate-induced food scarcities influence individuals’ willingness to fight for the state in a pro-government militia in the Philippines. We find t...
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Human rights organizations and transitional justice agenda-setting: Evidence from peace agreement provisions Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-06-14 Sam R. Bell, Risa Kitagawa
How do human rights organizations (HROs) shape transitional justice policy in countries emerging from conflict? We investigate this question in the context of peace processes, a vital stage when ma...
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Crafting international apologies that work: A conjoint analysis approach Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-06-06 Shoko Kohama, Toshiyuki Himichi, Kazunori Inamasu, Nobuhiro Mifune, Yohsuke Ohtsubo, Atsushi Tago
Apologies by political leaders to the citizens of a victimized country have attracted attention in recent years as a means of improving relations between nations. Existing studies have identified s...
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Securing guarantees: How nuclear proliferation can strengthen great power commitments Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-06-06 Julianne Phillips
How does expanding the nuclear club alter the structure of the international system? The structure of alignments in the international system clearly shapes nuclear proliferation, as great powers of...
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A certain gamble: Institutional change, leader turnover, and their effect on rivalry termination Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-05-06 Richard J Saunders
Previous research shows that leader turnover and change in a leader's winning coalition are associated with rivalry termination. However, this research often conflates change in leadership or winni...
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How civilian attitudes respond to the state’s violence: Lessons from the Israel–Gaza conflict Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-05-06 Amit Loewenthal, Sami H Miaari, Alexei Abrahams
States, in their conflicts with militant groups embedded in civilian populations, often resort to policies of collective punishment to erode civilian support for the militants. We attempt to evalua...
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Fear, accessibility, and legitimacy: An examination of the effects of political violence on health security in Pakistan Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-04-26 Amira Jadoon,Hina Khalid
How does political violence affect public health risks? While past research provides useful insights, it remains unclear how the effect of violence on health risks varies by perpetrator identity, target, and the intensity of attacks. We argue that indiscriminate attacks by militants will discourage civilians from accessing healthcare services. In contrast, clashes between militants and governments
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Guns and lightning: Power law distributions in intrastate conflict intensity dynamics Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-04-12 Christoph Trinn,Lennard Naumann
The discovery of power laws in conflict intensities has spurred numerous explanation attempts. Two different interpretations have persisted: the notion that power laws are spurious results of random processes and the opposing view that power-law distributions attest to endogenous dynamics linked to self-organized criticality (SOC). We substantiate the SOC forest-fire model for intrastate conflicts
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{peacesciencer}: An R package for quantitative peace science research Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-03-24 Steven V Miller
This article introduces {peacesciencer}, an R package that contains a litany of tools for creating data of widespread interest to the peace science community. The package is cross-platform, assuming only a somewhat recent installation of the R programming language with some of the enhanced functionality of the broadly popular {tidvyerse} packages. Peace science researchers can use this package to greatly
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Can religious norms reduce violent attitudes? Experimental evidence from a Muslim–Christian conflict Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-03-22 Anselm Hager, Kunaal Sharma
We study whether religious anti-violence norms can reduce violent attitudes in settings of deep religious divisions. Our study context is a neighborhood in Nairobi with a history of religious violence. We randomly expose 576 Christian and Muslim respondents to anti-violence norms drawn from religious sources and find that the primes reduce violent attitudes by 0.2 standard deviations. We find no evidence
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Financial contributions to United Nations peacekeeping, 1990–2010: A new dataset Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-03-21 Timothy JA Passmore,Megan Shannon,Morgan Nadeau
Despite evidence that United Nations peacekeeping is a cost-effective tool for addressing civil and interstate conflict, it has consistently experienced financial shortfalls as member states neglect to pay their dues. To enable investigation into the dynamics of peacekeeping support, we present newly collected data on all member-state financial contributions to all UN peacekeeping operations from 1990
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Democratization as an impetus for peace talks in civil wars Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-03-07 Barış Arı
Costs associated with recognizing an internal armed challenger as a legitimate bargaining partner deter governments from initiating peace talks. Yet peaceful termination of conflict requires formal negotiations between the belligerents. This article presents evidence that democratic reforms provide a window of opportunity for peace talks. Democratic reforms represent an opportunity to break away from
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Female combatants and rebel group behaviour: Evidence from Nepal Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-03-02 Marius Mehrl
Recent research examines when and why women join rebel groups as combatants. However, we are only beginning to understand how their presence affects rebel group behaviour and conflict dynamics more generally. I address this gap by analysing how women's participation influences two dimensions of rebel behaviour: their relationship to civilians and their fighting performance. I argue that a greater number
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Against polarization Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-02-22 Christian Davenport
This extension of Christian Davenport's virtual Presidential address to the Peace Science Society International attempts to: (1) identify as well as confront some of the issues that divide the Peace Science community and (2) provide some ideas/actions about what can be done to fix them. The article is as much a reflection on where we have been as it is a call to where we must go.
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Violence, co-optation, and postwar voting in Guatemala Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-02-22 Francisco Villamil
Wartime civilian victimization produces a counter-reaction against the perpetrator. However, this effect hinges on the creation of collective memories of wartime events. In many countries, former fighting actors and political elites try to redirect memories of wartime events through denial, propaganda, and co-optation. Previous works have ignored these aspects. I argue that the effect of violence is
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Does transnational terrorism stimulate foreign assistance? Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-02-22 Wukki Kim, Todd Sandler
This paper quantifies how past transnational terrorist attacks against a potential donor's assets result in enhanced foreign aid flows to a country hosting the responsible terrorist group. Given the reversed causality between foreign aid and terrorism, our empirical analysis puts forward an instrumental variable. Both conflict and governance assistance are shown to stem from transnational terrorist
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Judicial independence and refugee flights Conflict Management Peace Sci (IF 1.7) Pub Date : 2022-02-09 Saadet Ulasoglu Imamoglu
Recent studies suggest that a lack of judicial independence increases the risk of violent action, diminishing the incentives to solve disputes peacefully. However, violent action is not the only option when judiciaries are under the control of the executive. I argue that individuals become refugees in countries with non-independent judiciaries, losing their hope that violations of rules by the executive