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Measuring Arms: Introducing the Global Military Spending Dataset Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2024-02-19 Miriam Barnum, Christopher J. Fariss, Jonathan N. Markowitz, Gaea Morales
Military spending data measure key international relations concepts such as balancing, arms races, the distribution of power, and the severity of military burdens. Unfortunately, missing values and measurement error threaten the validity of existing findings. Addressing this challenge, we introduce the Global Military Spending Dataset (GMSD). GMSD collates new and existing expenditure variables from
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Pathways to Cooperation: A Relational Theory of Rebel Alliance Formation Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2024-02-13 Sedef A. Topal
Why do some rebel organizations form a united front when others confine themselves to a loose partnership? Existing research on rebel movements reveals that insurgents should quickly leave cooperative agreements if doing so will provide particular advantages in a post-conflict setting. Still, rebel groups may build diverse alliances, from joint attacks to shared command structures. If rebels are indeed
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Diplomatic Statements and the Strategic Use of Terrorism in Civil Wars Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2024-02-05 Gabriella Levy, Rebecca Dudley, Chong Chen, David A. Siegel
How does third-party diplomatic and material support affect rebel groups’ use of terrorism in civil wars? We argue via a game-theoretic model that diplomatic support prompts prospective shifts in rebel tactics, from civilian to military targets, in anticipation of material support, while material support alters the cost structure of attacks, leading to the same tactical shift. We empirically test the
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War on Aisle 5: Casualties, National Identity, and Consumer Behavior Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2024-02-02 Benjamin Helms, Sonal S. Pandya, Rajkumar Venkatesan
A growing body of research argues that external threats from the international system strengthen ethnocentrism and authoritarianism, personal values anchored in national identity. We evaluate a necessary implication of this argument, that these shifting values drive change in broader social behaviors. Our focus is revealed value change in a non-political setting: American consumers’ choice of supermarket
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“Right-Peopling” the State: Nationalism, Historical Legacies, and Ethnic Cleansing in Europe, 1886-2020 Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2024-01-24 Carl Müller-Crepon, Guy Schvitz, Lars-Erik Cederman
Many European nation-states were historically homogenized through violent ethnic cleansing. Despite its historical importance, we lack systematic evidence of the conditions under which groups where targeted with cleansing and how it impacted states’ ethnic demography. Rising nationalism in the nineteenth century threatened multi-ethnic states with “right-sizing” through secessionism and irredentism
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The Interwar Period International Trade in Arms: A New Dataset Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2024-01-18 Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner
International weapons transfers send military capabilities, make arms production economically feasible, and construct security relations. They influence buyers’ and sellers’ foreign policies, domestic politics, and military spending behavior. However, data availability has limited their study to the bipolar Cold War and unipolar post-Cold War periods. We thus introduce the Interwar Period International
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The Militarized Interstate Confrontation Dataset, 1816-2014 Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-05-05 Douglas M. Gibler, Steven V. Miller
We use this article to introduce the Militarized Interstate Confrontation (MIC) dataset, 1816-2014—a new dataset for international conflict with a host of innovative features. The MIC data corrects...
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Do Proxies Provide Plausible Deniability? Evidence From Experiments on Three Surveys Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-05-05 Scott Williamson
A purported advantage of secrecy in international politics is its ability to reduce pressures for conflict escalation by obscuring responsibility for hostile actions. Delegating these actions to pr...
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Natural Experiments of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effects Using Worldwide Surveys Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-23 TaeJun Seo, Yusaku Horiuchi
The “rally 'round the flag” effect—a short-term boost in a political leader’s popularity during an interstate political dispute—was first proposed by Mueller (1970) more than half a century ago. Ho...
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Transatlantic Shakedown: Presidential Shaming and NATO Burden Sharing Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-21 Jordan Becker, Sarah E Kreps, Paul Poast, Rochelle Terman
Does “shaming” work in NATO? More precisely, does publicly using negative language criticizing allies’ defense spending improve burden-sharing, or is it counterproductive, leading to lower spending...
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The Long-Term Economic Legacies of Rebel Rule in Civil War: Micro Evidence From Colombia Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-20 Ana María Ibáñez, Ana Arjona, Julián Arteaga, Juan C. Cárdenas, Patricia Justino
A growing literature has documented widespread variation in the extent to which insurgents provide public goods, collect taxes, and regulate civilian conduct. This paper offers what is, to our know...
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The Shadow of Deterrence: Why Capable Actors Engage in Contests Short of War Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-20 J. Andrés Gannon, Erik Gartzke, Jon R. Lindsay, Peter Schram
Defense policy makers have become increasingly concerned about conflict in the “gray zone” between peace and war. Such conflicts are often interpreted as cases of deterrence failures, as new techno...
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Rebel Leader Age and the Outcomes of Civil Wars Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-12 Daniel Silverman, Benjamin Acosta, Reyko Huang
What determines the outcomes of civil wars? Existing literature highlights numerous factors at the systemic, state, and organizational levels of analysis. Yet there is little research on the attrib...
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Gentrification and Social Unrest: The Blitz, Urban Change and the 2011 London Riots Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-11 Gabriel Leon-Ablan, Juta Kawalerowicz
Many of the world’s major cities have recently seen large episodes of social unrest. What is the relationship between the changes these cities have experienced, particularly in the form of gentrifi...
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Exploiting Ultimatum Power When Responders Are Better Informed − Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-11 Werner Güth, Francesca Marazzi, Luca Panaccione
In dyadic ultimatum bargaining proposers, who are privately informed about the pie size, can exploit their “moral wiggle room” by engaging in unfairness which is unobservable by responders. Our set...
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Militant Splinter Groups and the Use of Violence Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-08 Kaitlyn Robinson, Iris Malone
Existing research portrays militant splinter groups as more violent than their parent organizations due to factors like more extreme preferences or capacity-building needs. Though widely held, the ...
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Egoism and Altruism in Intergroup Conflict Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-03 Simon Varaine, Raul Magni-Berton, Ismaël Benslimane, Paolo Crosetto
Studies have shown that intergroup conflict may result from two distinct human motives: the desire to obtain personal retributions from conflict (egoism), and the desire to sacrifice for the benefi...
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Beyond Ransom and Political Concessions? Explaining Changes in Insurgents’ Kidnapping Involvement Versus Event-frequency Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-04-03 Lu Liu, Manuel Eisner
Kidnapping is a common tactic used by insurgent groups. However, why insurgents commit kidnappings remains insufficiently understood. Based on 1,386 group-year observations of 140 insurgents betwee...
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The Determinants of Terrorist Listing Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-03-27 Chia-yi Lee, Yasutaka Tominaga
Terrorist designation has increasingly become an important counterterrorism tool used by intergovernmental organizations and state governments. This article examines the determinants of terrorist l...
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Choosing Where to Fight: Do Social Networks Distinguish American ISIS Foreign Fighters from ISIS-Inspired Terrorists? Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-03-26 Michael A. Jensen, Neil Ferguson, Sheehan Kane, Gary LaFree
Why did some American citizens choose to travel to fight in Syria and Iraq rather than engage in Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)-inspired terrorism in the United States? We conducted a socia...
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Named and Shamed: International Advocacy and Public Support for Repressive Leaders Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-03-24 Kelly Morrison
Do international naming and shaming campaigns reduce public support for repressive leaders? International advocacy can provide domestic audiences with new information about human rights abuses and ...
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Muddying the Waters: The Anatomy of Resistance Campaigns and the Failure of Ceasefires in Civil Wars Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-03-15 Jessica Maves Braithwaite, Charles Butcher
Ceasefires are a critical tool for those engaged in conflict management during civil wars, yet little scholarship exists that systematically assesses the durability of these arrangements. We argue ...
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Fighting in Cyberspace: Internet Access and the Substitutability of Cyber and Military Operations Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-03-13 Nadiya Kostyuk, Erik Gartzke
Pundits debate whether conflict in cyberspace is more likely to trigger or preempt conflict in other domains. We consider a third possibility. Rather than directly complementing or substituting for...
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A Room Full of ‘Views’: Introducing a New Dataset to Explore Compliance with the Decisions of the UN Human Rights Treaty Bodies’ Individual Complaints Procedures Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-03-15 Andreas J. Ullmann, Andreas von Staden
Quantitative research into the effectiveness of the UN human rights treaty bodies (UNTBs) in eliciting remedial responses from states is impeded by a lack of usable data on how states respond to th...
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What is in a Mandate? Introducing the UN Peace Mission Mandates Dataset Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-03-02 Sara Hellmüller, Xiang-Yun Rosalind Tan, Corinne Bara
UN peace missions are constantly evolving. Yet, we lack a detailed understanding of the shifting types and objectives of peace missions beyond broad categorizations that distinguish for instance be...
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The Long-run Impact of Childhood Wartime Violence on Preferences for Nuclear Proliferation Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-03-01 James D. Kim
How do childhood experiences of wartime violence affect individuals’ preferences for nuclear proliferation? This paper argues that individuals who experienced severe war violence during childhood a...
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Electoral Integrity, the Concession of Power, and the Disciplining Role of Protests Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-24 Chanelle Duley, Prasanna Gai
Coordination on mass protest plays an important disciplining role in ensuring compliance with electoral rules, with elections serving as a public signal of the incumbent’s popularity. But the link ...
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Symbolic Conflict Resolution and Ingroup Favoritism Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-12 Sergi Martínez, Vicente Valentim, Elias Dinas
What are the domestic consequences of symbolic conflict resolution? We isolate the effect of symbolic conflict by looking into a dispute with no material stakes (for one side), but high symbolic on...
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Global Governance From Below: Regional Sanctions as Drivers of UN Sanctions Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-09 Inken von Borzyskowski, Clara Portela
The imposition of sanctions by the UN Security Council (UNSC) is notoriously selective. Many crises have qualified for UNSC sanctions by endangering peace and security, yet the UN has imposed sanct...
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Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-08 Jonathan N. Markowitz
Why do some states project military force to seek control of resources, while others do not? Conventional wisdom asserts that resource-scarce states should have the strongest interest in securing c...
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Contributing to Peace Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-06 Gautam Bose
Contest theory analyses an anarchic economy where agents use resources for consumption or acquisitive conflict, and explores conditions under which peace or conflict prevail in equilibrium. History...
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UN Security Council Elections as an Incentive for Compliance Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-06 Johann Caro-Burnett, Eric Weese
Standard economic theory would predict that costly demands placed by the United Nations on its members should be rewarded. Similarly, when rewards are not attractive enough, countries are not expec...
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Excessive Force or Armored Restraint? Government Mechanization and Civilian Casualties in Civil Conflict Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-03 Ryan Van Wie, Jacob Walden
Does increasing counterinsurgent mechanization result in higher levels of unintentional civilian casualties? Existing research on unintentional civilian victimization in recent conflicts has focuse...
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Sanctions-Busting, Material Power, and Institutional Support for Economic Sanctions Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-02 Jin Mun Jeong
International institutions play a key role in sanctions success. However, little is known about when senders mobilize institutional sanctions and how they induce international institutions to suppo...
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Tolerant Solidarity With Violent Protesters: Evidence From a Survey Experiment Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-01-31 Samson Yuen
Conventional wisdom holds that violent protests alienate the public. But violence could also create tactical disagreement among protesters and weaken their unity. So, to what extent does protesters...
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Responding to Uncertainty: The Importance of Covertness in Support for Retaliation to Cyber and Kinetic Attacks Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-01 Kathryn Hedgecock, Lauren Sukin
This paper investigates the escalation dynamics of cyber attacks. Two main theories have been advanced. First, “means-based” theory argues attack type determines response; cyber attacks are less li...
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Recruiting Rebels: Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-02-01 Michael J. Soules
There is an extensive body of literature examining how rebel groups recruit civilians. Much of this scholarly work focuses on the role of material and ideological appeals in mobilizing recruits. Ho...
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Inclusion, Recognition, and Inter-Group Comparisons: The Effects of Power-Sharing Institutions on Grievances Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-01-28 Andreas Juon
Extant evidence suggests that power-sharing reduces the participation of minorities in civil conflict by alleviating their grievances. Yet, it remains unclear how and to what degree power-sharing s...
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The Double-Edged Sword of Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic Terrorism Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-01-27 Glen Biglaiser, Lance Y Hunter, Ronald J McGauvran
This paper studies the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic terrorism. Using a cross-national, time-series analysis of 114 countries from 1991–2017, and employing structural equat...
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Local Ceasefires and De-escalation: Evidence From the Syrian Civil War Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-01-09 Magnus Lundgren, Isak Svensson, Dogukan Cansin Karakus
Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the S...
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Dis-Embedded Identity of Majority Members: The Case of Catholics in Poland Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2023-01-09 Julian Paffrath, Bernd Simon
In this article, we focus on the process of dis-embedded identification (the accentuation and prioritization of the identification with a particular subordinate ingroup relative to the identificati...
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Peacekeeping, Mediation, and the Conclusion of Local Ceasefires in Non-State Conflicts Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-12-24 Allard Duursma
This article theorizes on how military and civilian components of peacekeeping operations contribute to the conclusion of local ceasefires in non-state conflicts involving armed opposition groups o...
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Elite Cues and Public Attitudes Towards Military Alliances Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-12-22 Joshua Alley
Do elite cues exert extensive, conditional or minimal influence on public support for military alliances in the United States? I assess the boundaries of elite leadership on public opinion towards ...
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Democracy’s Ambivalent Effect on Terrorism Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-12-04 Ashlyn W. Hand, Nilay Saiya
Does democracy heighten or lessen the incidence of terrorism? This question has eluded a definitive answer for over three decades. Some terrorism researchers find that democracy has dampened terror...
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When Do Imposed Sanctions Work? The Role of Target Regime Type Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-11-22 Omer Zarpli
A number of studies on sanction effectiveness have highlighted the importance of regime type and how it affects the sensitivity of sanctioned states (target) to the economic costs of sanctions. The...
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International Negotiations in the Shadow of Elections Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-11-18 Justin Melnick, Alastair Smith
Within a formal model of international agreements in the shadow of renegotiations and domestic competition, we highlight three important ways elections shape international agreements. Elections det...
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When Deterrence Backfires: House Demolitions, Palestinian Radicalization, and Israeli Fatalities Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-11-17 Michael Freedman, Esteban F. Klor
Conflict points around the world involve government forces fighting terrorist groups. In this type of warfare, there is a danger that counterterrorist efforts may backfire, providing ammunition for...
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The New Terrain of Global Governance: Mapping Membership in Informal International Organizations Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-11-12 Charles Roger, Sam Rowan
We present a new dataset of membership in informal international organizations—IOs founded with non-binding instruments—which constitute one-third of operating IOs. We introduce state-IO-year–level...
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Triangles, Major Powers, and Rivalry Duration Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-10-29 Bomi K. Lee
Why do some international rivalries last longer than others? Rivalry literature focuses on the dyadic interactions within rivalries, but most rivalries have been connected to other rivalries. This ...
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Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-10-12 Govinda Clayton, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand, Siri A. Rustad, Claudia Wiehler, Tora Sagård, Peder Landsverk, Reidun Ryland, Valerie Sticher, Emma Wink, Corinne Bara
This article introduces the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. The CF data covers all ceasefires in civil conflict between 1989 and 2020, including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral arrang...
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Does the Bomb Really Embolden? Revisiting the Statistical Evidence for the Nuclear Emboldenment Thesis Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-10-07 Kyungwon Suh
This paper revisits the latest statistical evidence for the nuclear emboldenment thesis—nuclear-armed states are more likely to initiate military aggression than non-nuclear states—from (Bell and M...
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Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-10-06 Govinda Clayton, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri Aas Rustad, Håvard Strand
Ceasefires are arrangements through which conflict parties commit to stop fighting. They are a common part of intra-state conflict. Existing research on intra-state ceasefires is largely limited to...
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Your Reputation Precedes You: Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-10-04 Corinne Bara, Govinda Clayton
How does the state’s behavior in negotiations with one non-state group influence the behavior of other non-state actors? We argue that the dynamics of different conflicts within the same country ar...
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Costs and Cover: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires in Civil Conflict Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-10-04 Govinda Clayton, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri A. Rustad, Håvard Strand
Ceasefires are common in civil conflict. Yet we have surprisingly little comparative analysis of why and under what conditions they occur. A ceasefire provides temporary relief from the costs of co...
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Does Violence Against Journalists Deter Detailed Reporting? Evidence From Mexico Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-09-26 Cassy Dorff, Colin Henry, Sandra Ley
Over the last 12 years, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous places to be a journalist. We examine how this risk-environment influences the content and strategies of reporting at one of Mexi...
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Political Imprisonment and Protest Mobilization: Evidence From the GDR Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-09-22 Christoph V. Steinert, Christoph Dworschak
How does political imprisonment influence anti-regime protest? We argue that political imprisonment facilitates rather than stifles protest. Political imprisonment is a salient indicator of arbitra...
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Stealing an Election: Violence or Fraud? Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-09-19 Dawn Brancati, Elizabeth M Penn
Political actors often resort to electoral violence to gain an edge over their competitors even though violence is harder to hide than fraud and more likely to delegitimize elections as a result. E...
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Can Western Donors Constrain Repressive Governments? Evidence from Debt Relief Negotiations in Africa Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-09-19 Brett L Carter
There is limited evidence that reliance on foreign aid from Western donors compels repressive governments to embrace democratic reforms and respect citizens’ rights. However, donors have another, p...
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Nonproliferation Information and Attitude Change: Evidence From South Korea Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-09-16 Sangyong Son, Jong Hee Park
What explains the foreign policy gap between elites and the general public on nuclear proliferation? We investigate specific contexts in which experts’ nonproliferation information changes public a...
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Targeting Quality or Quantity? The Divergent Effects of Targeting Upper Verses Lower-Tier Leaders of Militant Organizations Journal of Conflict Resolution (IF 3.211) Pub Date : 2022-09-16 Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, Daniel Milton
Research on the efficacy of leadership decapitation has focused primarily on targeting the topmost leaders of groups. Yet, most organizations rely on multiple leaders with specific functional or ge...