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Is artificial intelligence a hazardous technology? Economic trade-off model European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-09-03 Bodo Herzog
Artificial intelligence (AI) demonstrates various opportunities and risks. Our study explores the trade-off of AI technology, including existential risks. We develop a theory and a Bayesian simulation model in order to explore what is at stake. The study reveals four tangible outcomes: (i) regulating existential risks has a boundary solution of either prohibiting the technology or allowing a laissez-faire
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Is high-intensity conflict escalation inevitable in the future? A two-level game analysis on the causes of US-Iran risky rivalry European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-09-02 Yaohui Wang, Richard Xuetao Wang, Jiajia Zhang
In recent years, there appears to be a growing consensus among policymakers in both the East and the West, that the decades of global peace after the Cold War has now come to an end, and that the world is facing mounting security risks to the future of humanity. Among those challenges, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict poses particularly significant risks to regional and global security, and is closely
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The state of foresight in small and medium enterprises: literature review and research agenda European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-08-29 Ulrike-Sabine Dörr, Gerhard Schönhofer, Jan Oliver Schwarz
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of many economies. In today's world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), SMEs face diverse challenges to survive and stay competitive. SMEs must prepare themselves for these challenges by practicing foresight. However, foresight, and especially corporate foresight, has been conceptualized and researched in the context of
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CERN for AI: a theoretical framework for autonomous simulation-based artificial intelligence testing and alignment European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-08-24 Ljubiša Bojić, Matteo Cinelli, Dubravko Ćulibrk, Boris Delibašić
This paper explores the potential of a multidisciplinary approach to testing and aligning artificial intelligence (AI), specifically focusing on large language models (LLMs). Due to the rapid development and wide application of LLMs, challenges such as ethical alignment, controllability, and predictability of these models emerged as global risks. This study investigates an innovative simulation-based
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“Eradicating hunger through climate litigation?” – An assessment of the opportunities and challenges of enforcing the human right to food through courts European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-07-30 Anna Kunz
Globally, hunger and malnutrition have been on the rise, with climate change exacerbating food insecurity by affecting food production and accessibility. In international law, the human right to food provides a legal protection for individuals. It emphasises that food should not just meet minimal nutritional needs but ensure the ability to obtain food in a dignified manner. In order to achieve this
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The other side of the coin: expectations of Polish and Hungarian students on soft skills in the labour market – a futures perspective European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-07-13 Norbert Laurisz, Tamás Gáspár, Wioleta Gałat, Tímea Juhász
There is common agreement that we are facing a great transition, which poses a challenge for the labour market, too. The expending literature on soft skills reflects the restructuring of the competition factors, and several papers discuss the future of the labour market: what new professions may emerge and what new skills these jobs demand. However, the attention on the expectations of the future generation
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The (In)Vulnerable: the futures of the Halligen in the North Sea in the face of climate change European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-06-22 Anna Jank-Humann
Islands and small island groups are among the areas most affected by global climate change and face major adaptation challenges. Their role as hotspots of climate change impacts is widely recognized in the scientific literature, and it is not uncommon for small islands to act as poster children for particular climate-related vulnerability. Nonetheless, many island communities have a long tradition
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Hindsight to foresight: an AI-powered analysis of future events in EJFR in 10 years European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-27 Carlos Eduardo Barbosa, Alan Lyra, Jano Moreira de Souza, Yuri Lima, Herbert Salazar, Matheus Argôlo
The world is changing increasingly faster, bringing uncertainty and complexity to many processes, and this acceleration leads to the rise of demand for studies regarding the future. Futures Studies have been widely used to support decision-making, emphasizing forecasting technologies’ timing, diffusion, and life cycle. Therefore, evaluating previous forecasts to understand their proposed scenarios
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Correction: Futures literacy in collaborative foresight networks: advancing sustainable shipbuilding European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-04 Leena Jokinen, Nicolas A. Balcom Raleigh, Katariina Heikkilä
Correction: European Journal of Futures Research 11, 9 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-023-00221-1 Following publication of the original article [1], the authors identified a typographical error in the 1st sentence of the 3rd paragraph under the heading ‘Moving towards comprehensive collaborative foresight by incorporating anticipation’ and a missing author name in references 7 and 30. The sentence
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Development tendencies and turning points of futures studies European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Tamás Kristóf
In honor of its 50th anniversary, the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) held its XXV World Conference in Paris. The conference provided a venue for reviewing earlier developments and reevaluating prospective directions in the futures field. Scientific-based futures studies has a long history, drawing from a variety of fields including sociology, policy sciences, philosophy of science, economic
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Options for making responsive future strategy to foster sustainability transitions in the German agri-food sector: a Delphi-based approach European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-14 Delia Mangelkramer
In response to pressing global challenges, sustainability transitions research has emerged as an interdisciplinary field focused on fundamental changes, necessitating novel approaches for strategy-making from research and innovation. Foresight practitioners need to extend their well-established methodological toolkit, which can inform subsequent planning processes about managing conflicts and shaping
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Dyadic risk mechanisms–a nomenclature for 36 proto-cascading effects determining humanity’s future European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-26 Trond Arne Undheim
Re-reading the risk literature, I sketch a novel nomenclature for 36 dyadic risk interactions that constitute the prototypes of what eventually become cascading effects. This analysis demonstrates where cascading risk effects originate and also hints at how they get their enormous power. Risk dyads derive from basic first-order interactions across six disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics
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Trend mining with Orange – using topic modeling in futures research with the example of urban mobility European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Matthias Sonk, Dirk Tunger
Today, assumptions about probable future developments (at least as far as they make use of quantifiable scientific methods and are not pure speculation) are generally based on data from the past. An interesting way to analyze the future through this type of data is text mining or individual methods out of the spectrum of text mining, such as topic modeling. Topic Modeling itself is a combination of
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Farmers’ futures: an application of the Delphi method in the context of Finnish agriculture European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Jaana Sorvali, Vilja Varho, Pasi Rikkonen, Janne Kaseva, Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio
In Finland, agriculture is practiced in variable growing conditions that are further challenged by climate change and under external pressure caused by international competition, changing consumer preferences and demands, and the renewal of the European Union Common Agriculture Policy and Paris Agreement climate targets. Futures studies in agriculture have focused on scenario building with expert panels
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Social studies teacher competencies in 2050: an e-Delphi study European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Tugce Zehra Kizilgol, Koray Kasapoglu
With the input of 16 experts from a variety of social studies disciplines—including anthropology, art, communication, curriculum and instruction, economics, geography, history, law, measurement and assessment, philosophy, politics, psychology, social studies education, sociology, technology, and Turkish language and literature—as well as two social studies teachers, the goal of this research is to
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Futures participation as anticipatory practice — what do futures workshops do? European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-02-15 Anna Riikka Airiina Armanto
Futures workshop is a participatory futures research method for producing views on futures and facilitating transformation and empowerment. Since different workshop methods are generally considered to have many advantages, they are widely used in various futures contexts. However, there is little knowledge on how futures participation entails empowerment for thinking and acting on futures. This paper
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A hybrid foresight study of the environmental reference laboratory system in Finland: a foresight study for the Government of Finland European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-31 Yrjö Myllylä, Jari Kaivo-oja
This article presents a hybrid foresight study using the Delphi methodology. The study is part of a strategic research project of the Finnish state named “Foresight in Environmental Reference Laboratory Operations.” The main starting point for this study was the Policy Delphi method, which was supplemented with other Delphi variants and decision support methods. In this hybrid foresight application
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Lives ‘on hold’ in Europe: an explorative review of literature on youth aspirations and futures in situations of migration and mobility European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-08 Kyriaki Doumas, Helen Avery
This explorative literature review aims to examine the content and methodologies of recent empirical studies on the aspirations of youth in situations of migration in Europe. The search yielded 30 peer-reviewed social science publications in English for the period 2010–2022, including both intra-European migrants ages 10–24 and youth with backgrounds from outside Europe. Contextual analysis was used
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What’s next in hospital digitization? A Delphi-based scenario study European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-20 Philipp Koebe, Sabine Bohnet-Joschko
The digital transformation has induced significant social and economic changes, impacting services of general interest, including healthcare. National healthcare systems serve as crucial pillars of social and prosperity security, necessitating adaptation in the face of digital transformation. Among healthcare institutions, hospitals play a vital role due to the nature and scope of their care services
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Futures literacy in collaborative foresight networks: advancing sustainable shipbuilding European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-10-26 Leena Jokinen, Nicolas A. Balcom Raleigh, Katariina Heikkilä
Businesses are facing increasing pressure from society and regulators to become more sustainable and do their part to address the climate crisis. These businesses will require continual sustainability innovation formulation and implementation processes to meet these demands. Collaborative foresight (CF) has high potential for helping business sectors produce a continuous stream of sustainability options
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Curtailing political short-termism in legislatures: a trade-off between influence and institutionalization? European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-09-29 Vesa Koskimaa, Tapio Raunio
Legislatures have recently started to invest in anticipatory governance. Alongside new practices, they have introduced designated future committees and organs that connect MPs to future-regarding visioning and advice. Two decades ago, only Finland had a ‘future committee’, today broadly similar organs exist in 10 countries around the world. While signaling an important attempt to take expert-driven
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The Mammoth prophecies: a role-playing game on controversies around a socio-technical innovation and its effects on students’ capacities to think about the future European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-07-08 Christian Dayé, Roman Lukas Prunč, Martin Hofmann-Wellenhof
This article reports on a political game played between November 2021 and February 2022 at a European university in the frame of an elective course open to students from all disciplines. It started from a scenario that combined a real and ongoing innovation process—the use of CRISPR/Cas9 technology to introduce specific genes from unfrozen mammoths onto an elephant species to make it more resistant
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Ambiguity in utopian XR-games European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-06-10 Wolfgang Höhl
Utopian images in XR-games are often ambiguous. How can ambiguity be consciously designed in virtual worlds? What are the design principles for game designers? Ambiguity arises from discontinuity and decontextualization, from the deliberate omission of facts, and from the skillful superimposition of contradictory codes. An ontology of interactive media explains the elusive visual poetry and image perception
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Using corporate foresight to enhance strategic management practices European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-04-24 Mohsen Taheri Demneh, Ali Zackery, Amir Nouraei
The ever-increasing environmental complexity makes strategizing a difficult multidimensional task. In this paper, we conducted a corporate foresight case study in an SME in packaging industry in Iran. The case study offers a detailed procedure of implementing corporate foresight (CF) and how it can reshape traditional strategic planning. A multimethodological approach was taken in this case study.
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Toward computer-supported semi-automated timelines of future events European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-04-01 Alan de Oliveira Lyra, Carlos Eduardo Barbosa, Yuri Oliveira de Lima, Herbert Salazar dos Santos, Matheus Argôlo, Jano Moreira de Souza
During a Futures Study, researchers analyze a significant quantity of information dispersed across multiple document databases to gather conjectures about future events, making it challenging for researchers to retrieve all predicted events described in publications quickly. Generating a timeline of future events is time-consuming and prone to errors, requiring a group of experts to execute appropriately
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Transformation through (re-)politicisation of socio-technical futures: how cultural semiotics can improve transformative vision assessment European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-03-21 Paulina Dobroć, Andreas Lösch
The politicisation of the future is gaining attention, especially in research on the impact of emerging technologies on modern societies. This observation has motivated technology assessment (TA) and related research in science and technology studies (STS) to involve transformative practices in their examination of existing socio-technical futures in order to adapt them to societal needs. To this end
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The determinants of a resilient food system for Finland in the 2020s—three opinion polls for improvements based on a Delphi study among food system experts European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-03-13 Pasi Rikkonen, Karoliina Rimhanen, Kalle Aro, Jyrki Aakkula
Sudden shocks, disturbances, and changes in today’s and the future’s operating environment call for a more resilient food system. COVID-19 and Russia’s latest war in Ukraine have revealed that rapid shocks and disturbances in global social-ecological systems can affect societies and pose various risks to food security. The discussion of food security and especially food supply security under uncertain
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Possible future scenarios of the general health social security system in Colombia for the year 2033 European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2023-02-10 Pedro Leon Cruz Aguilar, Javier Enrique Medina Vásquez
This article formulates possible future scenarios for the Colombian General Health and Social Security System (GHSSS) in 2033 when it reaches its 40th anniversary. The research draws on intuitive logic from the School of Human and Social Foresight (Masini, Penser le futur, 2000). The approach considers that in contexts of high instability and high conflict of interests, a combination of methods is
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Future of work in 2050: thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-12-10 Carlos Eduardo Barbosa, Yuri Oliveira de Lima, Luis Felipe Coimbra Costa, Herbert Salazar dos Santos, Alan Lyra, Matheus Argôlo, Jonathan Augusto da Silva, Jano Moreira de Souza
Work has been continuously changing throughout history. The most severe changes to work occurred because of the industrial revolutions, and we are living in one of these moments. To allow us to address these changes as early as possible, mitigating important problems before they occur, we need to explore the future of work. As such, our purpose in this paper is to discuss the main global trends and
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Strengthening futures-oriented agenda for building innovation ecosystems European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-11-23 Jouko Myllyoja, Nina Rilla, Maria Lima-Toivanen
This article locates itself at the interface of the innovation ecosystem approach and foresight methodologies. The need for writing this paper emerged from the notion that despite existing common praxis, there is a lack of academic studies combining these approaches simultaneously in a more profound sense. The study adapts the perspective of how foresight can assist in the development of innovation
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Politicizing the future: on lithium exploration in Portugal European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-10-13 Emília Araújo, Sofia Bento, Marcia Silva
This text explores the meaning of the expression “mined future,” which has been used by local populations who oppose lithium production in Northern Portugal. We argue that the expression encapsulates the existence of a conflict for the “ownership” of future, unfolding a battle of visions of the future between local populations and governments. The local population sees the exploitation of lithium as
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Metaverse through the prism of power and addiction: what will happen when the virtual world becomes more attractive than reality? European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-10-12 Ljubisa Bojic
New technologies are emerging at a fast pace without being properly analyzed in terms of their social impact or adequately regulated by societies. One of the biggest potentially disruptive technologies for the future is the metaverse, or the new Internet, which is being developed by leading tech companies. The idea is to create a virtual reality universe that would allow people to meet, socialize,
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Mysterious faces of hybridisation: an anticipatory approach for crisis literacy European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-09-10 Joni Karjalainen, Sirkka Heinonen, Amos Taylor
Our complex world is changing at such a pace that we are struggling to address many of the global challenges ahead of us. As one of its symptoms, hybridisation means that fields, functions, characteristics and roles are increasingly combined and fused. This paper is an opening to the study of hybridisation, as an overlooked topic in the field of futures studies and foresight. We explore how hybridisation
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A causal model for creating public value (in institutional voids)—the case of Lesvos European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-08-02 Andrea Cederquist
The Greek island of Lesvos is a holiday destination that became the main entry point for forced migrants to Europe during 2015 and 2016. These circumstances of disruptive societal change are used as the basis for developing a causal and dynamic model that creates public value in institutional voids. The clash between a holiday location and a humanitarian-ecological disaster and the fact that volunteers
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Radical Technology Inquirer: a methodology for holistic, transparent and participatory technology foresight European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-07-14 Risto Linturi, Maria Höyssä, Osmo Kuusi, Ville Vähämäki
This paper introduces and motivates the Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) methodology for anticipation of technological breakthroughs and their combined cross-sectoral and social impacts. The primary use of the methodology is long-term policy evaluation and design. The first version of the methodology was published in 2013. This paper reports the current RTI 2018 version, which is based on systematic
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Codesign with more-than-humans: toward a meta co-design tool for human-non-human collaborations European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-07-11 Alessia Romani, Francesca Casnati, Alessandro Ianniello
What does more-than-human mean? How can we, as humans, understand that our ecology is only one of the many that do exist within the world? Furthermore, in which way should we step aside to let all ecological actors exercise their agency? And, more specifically, what should be the role of design and designers in tackling complex issues and in contributing to a major shift in thoughts? These questions
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The future as aesthetic experience: imagination and engagement in future studies European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-07-06 Harro van Lente, Peter Peters
In this paper, we examine the question how future studies can productively engage with the future by considering how art is engaging. This question is pertinent, as doubts about the future are increasingly urgent, while the need to engage with the future is not sufficiently addressed by the quantitative growth of future studies. In the case of climate change, for example, the future consequences of
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Setting life cycle assessment (LCA) in a future-oriented context: the combination of qualitative scenarios and LCA in the agri-food sector European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-06-27 Ariane Voglhuber-Slavinsky, Alberto Zicari, Sergiy Smetana, Björn Moller, Ewa Dönitz, Liesbet Vranken, Milena Zdravkovic, Kemal Aganovic, Enno Bahrs
By combining qualitative scenarios and life cycle assessment (LCA), we place the latter in a larger context. This study outlines the importance of the integration of future perspectives into LCA, and also the significance of taking changes in the environment of technology into account, rather than just technological development itself. Accordingly, we focused on adapting the background system of an
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A comprehensive review of Hungarian futures studies in light of international journal articles European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-06-23 Erzsébet Nováky, Tamás Kristóf
This article offers an overview of the evolution of Hungarian futures studies via a systematic literature review of articles with at least one Hungarian futurist (co-)author, published in high-ranking international or English-language Hungarian journals. The review reveals how researchers from a relatively small European country, where central planning had been applied for decades, have made their
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Policymaking to support resilience in democratic countries: an examination of Sweden, Israel, and Australia European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-06-08 Livia Dewaele, Rebecca Lucas
The term ‘resilience’ has increasingly featured in foreign and security policy discourse, appearing in the 2016 European Union Global Strategy, the 2017 US National Security Strategy, and most recently in the UK’s 2021 Integrated Review. These strategies note the importance of preparing for, responding to, and recovering from crises that could affect civilian society. While these strategies agree on
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Stage performances as means for linking sociotechnical imaginaries and projective genres in the discourse around urban air mobility European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-05-25 Marcel Woznica
Sociotechnical imaginaries play a crucial role in the context of urban air mobility. At the beginning of this article, I present the Pop.Up, commonly described as ‘air taxi’, as one such vision. Taking the analysis of multiple visions as an orientation, I show secondly, how other temporal figures such as projective genres fulfil different functions to establish specific visions as dominant ones. By
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Medium-term consequences (5 years) of the Covid-19 crisis on work organization and occupational risks: a prospective study European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-05-05 Michel Héry, Marc Malenfer, François de Jouvenel, Laurie Grzesiak
The health crisis linked to Covid-19 has had the effect of strongly increasing the activity of certain trades or, on the contrary, decreasing it to the point of stopping. It has also disrupted the organization of work in companies: remote work, physical distancing, etc. The question that now arises is to know the sustainability of these developments, their influence on working conditions, and the associated
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Socio-psychedelic imaginaries: envisioning and building legal psychedelic worlds in the United States European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-04-30 Claudia Schwarz-Plaschg
After decades of criminalization, psychedelic substances such as psilocybin and LSD are experiencing their comeback in science and Western culture more broadly. While psychedelic plants and fungi have a long history of use in Indigenous cultures, the Western prohibitionist reality instantiated around 1970 has stigmatized psychedelics as medically useless and a threat to society. Yet studies are increasingly
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Re-discovering Aurelio Peccei’s contribution to Futures Studies European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-04-29 Carolina Facioni, Roberto Paura
This work aims to enhance the contribution of Aurelio Peccei to Futures Studies and its unaltered relevance in the light of the world’s current scientific issues. Peccei’s contribution in Futures Studies is often identified with his propulsive role in the birth of the Club of Rome (1968) and in the promotion of the report “The Limits to Growth” (1972). Although this would be enough to make him a central
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Energizing collaborative industry-academia learning: a present case and future visions European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-04-25 Petri Kettunen, Janne Järvinen, Tommi Mikkonen, Tomi Männistö
In Industry-Academia Collaborations (IAC) both academic, scientific research results and industrial practitioner findings and experiences are produced. Both types of knowledge should be gathered, codified, and disseminated efficiently and effectively. This paper investigates a recent (2014–2017) large-scale IAC R&D&I program case (Need for Speed, N4S) from a learning perspective. It was one of the
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(Re)politicization of climate change mitigating projects: environmental forms and motives of the Seine Nord Europe canal European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-04-20 Rémy Petitimbert, Gabrielle Bouleau, Clémence Guimont
Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies are gaining visibility and support. Decision-makers are defending the extension of large infrastructures that are low greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, as a way to act quickly and massively without calling into question existing economic models. This situation depoliticizes these projects, masking their other ecological consequences such as their impacts
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Chain and silk: alternative futures of blockchain governance in Kyrgyzstan European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-04-05 Saikal Anvar kyzy, Gregory J. Dunn, John A. Sweeney
Few technologies have been mired in hype more than blockchain, which is the underlying peer-to-peer network protocol for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Given the technology’s emphasis on purported “immutable ledgers” and trust-less sharing models, there has been a great deal of interest in applying blockchain to democratic reforms. From localized decision-making to national-scale voting systems
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Young people’s technological images of the future: implications for science and technology education European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 Tapio Rasa, Antti Laherto
Modern technology has had and continues to have various impacts on societies and human life in general. While technology in some ways defines the ‘digital age’ of today, discourses of ‘technological progress’ may dominate discussions of tomorrow. Conceptions of technology and futures seem to be intertwined, as technology has been predicted by experts to lead us anywhere between utopia and extinction
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Technological disruption and democracy in the twenty-first century European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-03-27 Felipe Arocena, Sebastián Sansone, Nicolás Alvarez
In 2019, sociologist Manuel Castells categorically stated that liberal democracy has exhausted its historical trajectory and, quoting some verses by Octavio Paz, expressed: “Not what it could have been:/it is what it was./And what it was is dead.” In this paper, we will reflect on this diagnosis based on five interrelated questions. To what extent is liberal democracy being affected by the current
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Life in the hole: practices and emotions in the cultural political economy of mitigation deterrence European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-03-13 Nils Markusson, Duncan McLaren, Bronislaw Szerszynski, David Tyfield, Rebecca Willis
Negative emissions techniques (NETs) promise to capture greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and sequester them. Since decarbonisation efforts have been slow, and the climate crisis is intensifying, it is increasingly likely that removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will be necessary to meet internationally-agreed targets. Yet there are fears that pursuing NETs might undermine other mitigation
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Foresight: a new approach based on the Z-number cognitive map European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2022-01-14 Mostafa Izadi, Hamidreza Seiti, Mostafa Jafarian
Foresight has recently emerged as one of the most attractive and practical fields of study, while being used to draw up a preferable future and formulate appropriate strategies for achieving predetermined goals. The present research aimed at providing a framework for foresight with a primary focus on the role of a cognitive approach and its combination with the concept of fuzzy cognitive map in the
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Futures literacy in the loop European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-11-23 Jan Erik KARLSEN
This article proposes a functional historicist explanation to explicate the core ideas and underlying logic embedded in the futures literacy concept. Futures literacy assumes a capacity to reflect on the past, sense and make sense of the present and use this reflective body of knowledge when anticipating the future. Arguably, futures literacy must be learned, sustained, and regained; it requires a
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Data-driven smart eco-cities and sustainable integrated districts: A best-evidence synthesis approach to an extensive literature review European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-11-13 Simon Elias Bibri
As materializations of trends toward developing and implementing urban socio-technical and enviro-economic experiments for transition, eco-cities have recently received strong government and institutional support in many countries around the world due to their ability to function as an innovative strategic niche where to test and introduce various reforms. There are many models of the eco-city based
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Conceptualization of a new generation of smart energy systems and the transition toward them using anticipatory systems European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-11-08 Zahra Heidari Darani, Mohsen Taheri Demne, Darush Mohammadi Zanjirani, Ali Zackery
Emerging energy systems are inherently different from their conventional counter-parts. To address all issues of these systems, comprehensive approaches of transdisciplinary and post-normal sciences are needed. This article tries to re-conceptualize emerging energy systems using Robert Rosen’s theory of anticipatory system and introduces the concept of the anticipatory smart energy system (ASES). Three
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Five transition pathways to renewable energy futures—scenarios from a Delphi study on key drivers and policy options European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-10-27 Pasi Rikkonen, Ville Lauttamäki, Marjukka Parkkinen, Vilja Varho, Petri Tapio
At many levels of society—in regions, corporations, and among citizens—awareness is increasing, and actions towards more sustainable energy are being taken. The key drivers of this transition have been climate change, the scarcity of resources, and environmental consciousness. The speed of change and its impacts on the energy system transition are still unknown. It is therefore important to anticipate
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The underlying components of data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future: a case study approach to an applied theoretical framework European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-10-11 Simon Elias Bibri
The increased pressure on cities has led to a stronger need to build sustainable cities that can last. Planning sustainable cities of the future, educated by the lessons of the past and anticipating the challenges of the future, entails articulating a multi-scalar vision that, by further interplaying with major societal trends and paradigm shifts in science and technology, produce new opportunities
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The future of polarisation in Europe: relative cosmopolitanism and democracy European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-10-10 Markus Pausch
One of the central features of our societies is an increasing polarisation between communitarian and cosmopolitan positions. The theoretically sound and differentiated concepts are increasingly being escalated and misused in political practice by authoritarian populists and polarising pushers who try to pull the undecided to their side and tear society apart. Two essential agreements of the post-war
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Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for loss of electricity/industry compared to artificial general intelligence safety European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-09-20 David Denkenberger, Anders Sandberg, Ross John Tieman, Joshua M. Pearce
Extreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions
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Emergent technologies, divergent frames: differences in regulator vs. developer views on innovation European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-08-28 Jeffrey M. Keisler, Benjamin D. Trump, Emily Wells, Igor Linkov
Technology innovation is inherently uncertain. The risk–benefit divide for such innovation is a classical debate within scholarly literature and is often framed on a monetary scale where innovation approval is granted if benefit outweighs risk. However, such discussion leaves out a critical yet subjective vein of discussion within the innovation evaluation process — stakeholder context. Specifically
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Anticipatory governance for newcomers: lessons learned from the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, and Korea European Journal of Futures Research (IF 3.1) Pub Date : 2021-07-11 Kyungmoo Heo, Yongseok Seo
Anticipatory governance (AG) is defined as a “system of systems” that employs foresight to create future plans and execute relevant actions. Recently, various frameworks of AG have been introduced, but there is little practical information available for newcomers on how to do this. This research conducted a framework-based comparative country analysis to provide lessons learned for newcomers in the