Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) struggle to reproduce recently observed sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns. Here, we quantify the relevance of this SST pattern uncertainty to global-mean temperature projections through convolving Green's functions with SST pattern scenarios that differ from the ones AOGCMs produce by themselves. We find that future SST pattern uncertainty

In December 2021, Super Typhoon Rai caused significant devastation to the South Philippines and East Malaysia. In the meantime, an unprecedented flood event occurred in Peninsular Malaysia at 2,000 km west of the typhoon's path, causing comparable socioeconomic impacts as Rai. Record-breaking 3-day precipitation was received by Peninsular Malaysia during 16–18 December. Based on the storm tracking

The Cascadia margin is an unusual subduction zone characterized by the downdip movement of young and thin oceanic plates, where mantle flow and intraslab deformation are still unclear. Here we present new anisotropic tomography of the Cascadia subduction zone, in which the hexagonal symmetry axis of anisotropy is tilting rather than horizontal or vertical as assumed in previous studies of seismic anisotropy

In many applications of data assimilation, especially when the size of the problem is large, a substantial assumption is made: all variables are well-described by Gaussian error statistics. This assumption has the advantage of making calculations considerably simpler, but it is often not valid, leading to biases in forecasts or, even worse, unphysical predictions. We propose a simple, but effective

The inversion of remote sensing signatures of internal solitary waves (ISWs) can retrieve dynamic characteristics in the ocean interior. However, the presence of ubiquitous large-amplitude ISWs poses challenges to the commonly used weakly nonlinear methods for parameter retrieval. Through laboratory experiments, we establish a relationship between surface features and internal characteristics of ISWs

Greenhouse gases and aerosols play a major role in controlling global climate change. Greenhouse gases drive a radiative imbalance which warms the ocean, while aerosols cool the ocean. Since 1980, the effective radiation felt by the planet due to anthropogenic aerosols has leveled off, global ocean cooling due to aerosols has decelerated, and greenhouse gas-driven ocean warming has accelerated. We

Solid organic matter (OM) is a biogeochemically relevant constituent of soils and sediments. It also affects sediments' geophysical properties, but is often overlooked in hydro- and biogeophysical approaches for the characterization of the shallow subsurface. Here, we explore the potential of spectral induced polarization (SIP) to delineate OM-rich zones in the subsurface and provide insights into

One of the major factors controlling the phase partitioning in mixed-phase cloud is entrainment mixing, but it is still poorly understood. In this study, the liquid-ice mass partitioning across the edge of shallow to moderately deep cumulus clouds are analyzed using airborne measurements. The results show the concentration and water content of both liquid and ice decrease toward the cloud edge. However

Solar radiation-topography interaction plays an important role in surface energy balance over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, the impacts of such interaction over the TP on climate locally and in the Asian regions remain unclear. This study uses the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to evaluate the regional and teleconnected impacts of solar radiation-topography interaction over the TP.

Modeling the short-term (<50 years) evolution of glaciers is difficult because of issues related to model initialization and data assimilation. However, this timescale is critical, particularly for water resources, natural hazards, and ecology. Using a unique record of satellite remote-sensing data, combined with a novel optimisation and surface-forcing-calculation method within the framework of the

The differential axial rotation of the solid inner core (IC) is suggested by seismic observations and expected from core dynamics models. A rotation of the IC by an angle α takes its degree 2, order 2 topography (peak-to-peak amplitude δh) out of its gravitational alignment with the mantle. This creates a gravity variation of degree 2, order 2 proportional to δh and to α. Here, we use gravity observations

Seismic anisotropy in the upper mantle reveals geodynamic processes and the tectonic evolution of the Earth. The two most powerful methods, surface wave tomography, and shear-wave splitting observations, cannot investigate the deep local anisotropy with good vertical and lateral resolution, resulting in poor constraints on plate deformation processes of the complex plate boundary beneath the Southern

Increasing the model resolution is expected to be one way for improving air quality forecasts in urban areas. In this study, we evaluate the model performance in a large city at various resolutions to examine the best resolution for air pollution simulations. The comparison with measurements at a station near the traffic emissions shows the advantage of using high resolutions for capturing the extreme

In this study, we differentiate wet processes from dry processes in shaping the extratropical thermal stratification during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our findings indicate that even during the dry glacial period the influence of wet processes on thermal stratification cannot be overlooked. The applicability of dry and wet baroclinic adjustment theory strongly depends on the seasonality rather than

Previous studies suggested that tropical sea surface salinity (SSS) can influence tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) through mixing and entrainment and thus it may be a signal for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. This paper explores the influence of SSS on ENSO spring predictability barrier (SPB) using an empirical dynamic model - Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By coupling and

The Hawaiian Ridge has long been a focus site for studying lithospheric flexure due to intraplate volcano loading, but crucial load and flexure details remain unclear. We address this problem using wide-angle seismic refraction and reflection data acquired along a ∼535-km-long profile that intersects the ridge between the islands of Maui and Hawai'i and crosses 80–95 Myr-old lithosphere. A tomographic

Fluid-induced earthquakes adversely affect industrial operations like hydraulic fracturing (e.g., 4.6 Mw in Alberta, Canada) and enhanced geothermal systems (e.g., 5.5 Mw in Pohang, South Korea). Identifying all underlying physical processes contributing to fluid-induced seismicity presents an open challenge. Recent work reports signatures of event-event triggering or aftershocks—common for tectonic

Geometric heterogeneities in tight reservoir rocks saturated with a fluid mixture may exhibit different scale distribution characteristics. Conventional models of rock physics based on poroelasticity, which usually consider single-scale pore structure and fluid patches, are inadequate for describing elastic wave responses. A major challenge is to establish the relationship between the wave response

A combination of receiver function (RF) analysis and shear wave splitting can reveal the anisotropic properties of the Earth's velocity structure. The RF profile exhibits harmonic patterns partially generated from the discontinuities of anisotropic media near the receiver. The anisotropic properties are determined using splitting parameters, which include the fast polarization direction (FPD) and split

Field Line Resonances (FLRs) are a critical component in Earth's magnetospheric dynamics, associated with the transfer of energy between Ultra Low Frequency waves and local plasma populations. In this study we investigate how the polarisation of FLRs are impacted by cold plasma density distributions during geomagnetic storms. We present an analysis of Van Allen Probe A observations, where the spacecraft

Seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction is crucial for decision-making in a number of industries, but forecasts on these timescales have limited skill. Here, we develop a data-driven method for selecting optimal analogs for seasonal-to-decadal analog forecasting. Using an interpretable neural network, we learn a spatially-weighted mask that quantifies how important each grid point is for determining

Internally generated radiative feedback at interannual timescales can influence climate sensitivity estimates. This study has clarified the mechanisms of variability in radiative feedback associated with the El Niño and Southern Oscillation based on preindustrial control simulations for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Radiative feedback showed large modulation with a comparable magnitude

An anomalous crust and lithospheric mantle in the Deccan Volcanic Province are imaged below a 160 km long W-E profile through the joint inversion of receiver functions and surface wave dispersion. The upper crust has an unusually low S-wave velocity (Vs ∼ 3.3–3.5 km/s) at 8–17 km depth, underlying a 4 km thick high-velocity layer (Vs > 3.8 km/s). The low velocity possibly represents the frozen magma

Compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, the Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) has been improved in Phase 6 (CMIP6). However, the lack of knowledge about the reliability of sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the CMIP6 models still limits the accuracy of Antarctic sea ice projections. Here, by using a novel and systematic statistical metric, the performance

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) and Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are impactful weather events for California communities. Emergency planning efforts and resource management would benefit from extending lead times of skillful prediction for these and other types of extreme weather patterns. Here we describe a methodology for subseasonal prediction of impactful winter weather in California, including ARs, SAWs and

During the Cretaceous, there were two factors that had important influences on the East Asian climate, the East Asian coastal mountains and Earth's orbital cycling. An important question is how the coastal mountains modulated the variability of East Asian climate over orbital timescales. Here, we perform simulations with the coastal mountains of 0, 2, and 4 km high and three orbital configurations

This study investigated ice cloud formation associated with marine bioaerosols over the Southern Ocean (SO) using a combination of cloud particle sensor (CPS) sonde observations, satellite products, reanalysis data, and backward trajectory analysis. The CPS sonde detected ice clouds at temperatures higher than −10°C in the mid-troposphere near an atmospheric river at high-latitudes over the SO. Backward

The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has strengthened over the past decades despite ongoing global warming, and the cause has been a puzzle. Because PWC is coupled with the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, quantifying the relative impact of SST

The rapid growth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports underscores the importance of CO2 monitoring for LNG export terminals. We present a method for measuring LNG terminal CO2 emissions using remote sensing imaging spectroscopy. The method is first validated using 47 power plant emission events with in situ measured data, then applied to 22 emission events in Sabine Pass and Cameron. The power plant

A new cable-damper stopper equipped for Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plants (CFTPPs) was proposed in our previous paper, where a series of shaking table tests were carried out to investigate its seismi...

Axial forces are generated in the plates of ADAS-yielding dampers when subjected to lateral loading due to their boundary conditions. This on one hand can lead to an increase in strain level of the...

An energy-based damper design methodology is presented to achieve equal displacement at the building edges for torsionally coupled existing new buildings. Considering ductile and non-ductile RC bui...

We propose a new model for the crust and upper mantle in Iran by joint inversion of gravity and magnetic fields, constrained with a seismic tomography model. We then calculate shear modulus from the Vs velocities and densities. The crust and mantle tomography model is first converted to a density cube through empirical and petrological velocity-density relations. The starting susceptibility is assigned

Tsunamis can have devastating consequences for coastal communities. Yet hazards from future tsunamis are difficult to quantify due to their rarity in the instrumental record. Statistical earthquake catalogs have previously been used to quantify tsunami hazards. For the first time, we use a physics-based synthetic earthquake catalog to assess probabilistic tsunami hazard in a local region. We analyze

Magma supply likely exerts primary control on seafloor morphology of oceanic crust, but most studies have related morphology to spreading rate. Here we examine global patterns of morphology on mid-ocean ridge (MOR) flanks in relation to magma supply derived from residual mantle Bouguer gravity anomaly (proxy for relative crustal thickness) and spreading rate. We use multibeam bathymetry to characterize

We measure group velocity dispersion of surface waves generated by two meteoroid impacts on Mars close to the lander of the InSight mission. This allows us to probe the crustal structure in the first few kilometers beneath the InSight lander. In combination with body wave arrival times from five impact events, we obtain direct seismic constraints on the seismic velocity of the crust in the vicinity

A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century

Quantitative methods to pinpoint the origin of atmospheric temperature anomalies (T′) associated with heatwaves are pivotal for the construction of physically plausible synoptic storylines of heatwave formation and their evaluation in models. Here, we combine a Lagrangian T′ decomposition with concepts from moisture tracking techniques to identify where and when the principal physical processes generate

We identify for the first time an Indian Easterly Jet (IEJ) in the mid-troposphere during the pre-monsoon using reanalysis data. The IEJ is weaker and smaller than the African Easterly Jet over West Africa, with a climatological location of 10°N, 60–90°E, 700 hPa, and strength 6–7 m s−1 during March–May. The IEJ is a thermal wind associated with low-level meridional gradients in temperature (positive)

With increasing coverage, density, and accuracy of the global inland water altimetry record, remote sensing observations of water surface elevation (WSE) and water surface slope (WSS) are becoming available for the world's rivers. In steady, uniform flows, WSS is invariable, while there is a unique one-to-one relationship between WSE and discharge, the rating curve. While the assumptions of steady

Properly capturing the transition from shallow to deep convection remains a major shortcoming of numerical weather and climate models due to poor understanding of the physical processes controlling this transition. Although recent studies suggest shallow preconditioning and cold pool feedbacks to be important, these studies are unable to explain the initial phase of the transition. We identify an additional

Baroclinic or extratropical cyclones (ETCs) transport heat and moisture to higher latitudes, making it fundamentally important to understand how their influence changes as Earth's climate evolves. A 2–8-day Lanzcos bandpass filter is applied to European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting 5th Generation Reanalysis latent energy (LE) and kinetic energy (KE) data to assess how ETCs have changed

Using the high-quality measurements of plasma by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft, we investigate the wave-particle interaction between cold protons and Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves of different polarizations in the inner magnetosphere. Both the left-hand and right-hand polarized EMIC waves can interact with cold protons via non-resonance interaction, and energize the cold

The generation of kinetic-scale flux ropes (KSFRs) is closely related to magnetic reconnection. Both flux ropes and reconnection sites are detected in the magnetosheath and can impact the dynamics upstream of the magnetopause. In this study, using the Magnetospheric Multiscale satellite, 12,623 KSFRs with a scale <20 RCi are statistically studied in the Earth's dayside magnetosheath. It is found that

Determination of the optimal parameter values in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has a significant impact on predictions. Here, we propose a knee point-based multiobjective optimization (KMO) method to find an optimal solution of the NWP model parameters. We apply it to optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's summer precipitation and temperature simulations for the Greater

The interpretation of stalagmite δ18O in terms of reflecting Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation is still elusive. Here, we present high-resolution stalagmite trace element ratios (X/Ca, X = Mg, Sr, Ba) records from southwest China covering 116.09 to 4.07 ka BP. δ18O, δ13C, and X/Ca values exhibit clear precessional cycles, with δ18O values reflecting ASM circulation/intensity, while X/Ca ratios

The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) profoundly modulates precipitation from central to southeastern Brazil in the present-day climate. However, the understanding of its long-term behavior responding to various climate forcings remains limited. Here, we use an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM4.6) to examine the precipitation response of the SACZ during the mid-Holocene

Subducting the buoyant crustal material of an aseismic oceanic ridge has been regarded as a dominant contributor to flat slab subduction. However, normal-dip subduction is also observed in some cases where ridges are subducting. In this study, we compare the subduction of two ridges on the Nazca Plate: Nazca Ridge (flat slab) and Iquique Ridge (normal-dip slab). Anisotropy determined by shear wave

The climate sensitivity peaks around 310 K in a wide variety of climate models, ranging from idealized single column models to fully comprehensive climate models. Here, we increase CO2 using a clear-sky three-dimensional atmospheric model with a radiation scheme which maintains accuracy for high CO2 and temperature levels. In contrast, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of our model plateaus

Airborne Doppler radar observations of the wind field in the tropical cyclone boundary layer (TCBL) during the landfall of Hurricane Ida (2021) are examined here. Asymmetries in tangential and radial flow are governed by tropical cyclone (TC) motion and vertical wind shear prior to landfall, while frictional effects dominate the asymmetry location during landfall. Strong TCBL inflow on the offshore-flow

No abstract is available for this article.

Monitoring groundwater levels in aquifers is crucial for water resources management on a global scale. In Greece, water stress is particularly high due to the expansion of agricultural land, urbanization and tourism, leading to aquifer over-exploitation. In this study, we investigate the possibility of monitoring groundwater reservoirs from seismic velocity changes (δv/v) measured using noise autocorrelations

Along the strike of subduction zones, tectonic tremor episodicity is segmented on a geologic scale. Here, we study how this segmentation reflects large-scale variations of the structure and conditions of the fault interface where tremor is generated. We try to understand which properties of the hydraulic system of the fault allow elementary tremor sources to synchronize, leading to the emergence of

Hydroclimate is an important factor controlling landscape evolution. But establishing the impact of hydroclimate is complicated by the influences of other processes and is especially hard to prove for those in deep time from geological record. During the late Permian, voluminous basaltic sediments were derived from the erosion of the Emeishan large igneous province in western South China. They provide

The responses of atmospheric kinetic energy (KE) spectra to three convective parameterizations (CPs) in global high-resolution simulations are revealed. The results show that the KE spectra exhibit high sensitivity to the CPs, mainly at mesoscales in the middle and upper troposphere. The New Tiedtke scheme produces the steepest mesoscale slope, followed by the Kain-Fritsch scheme and then the Grell-Freitas