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Tropical cyclone-related heatwave episodes in the Greater Bay Area, China: Synoptic patterns and urban-rural disparities Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Minxuan Zhang, Yuanjian Yang, Chenchao Zhan, Lian Zong, Chaman Gul, Mengya Wang
Tropical cyclone (TC) peripheral downdrafts and urbanization can promote extreme heatwave (HW) events in the Greater Bay Area (GBA), a highly urbanized coastal area in China. However, the roles of synoptic patterns and urbanization in the HW events remain unclear, particularly for the joint occurrences of the tropical cyclone and heatwave (TC-HW) extremes. Here, we identify three synoptic patterns
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Corrigendum to “Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling” [Weather Clim. Extrem. 43 (2024) 100651] Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Flavio Maria Emmanuele Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
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Analysis and comparison of water vapor transport features and circulation anomalies during the super-strong Meiyu period of 2020 and 1998* Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 Hao Yang, Chunguang Cui, Cuihong Wu, Yan Wang, Xiaofang Wang, Wen Zhou, Jingyu Wang
2020 and 1998 are the strongest Meiyu years in recent decades. The characteristics of the super-strong Meiyu precipitation and water vapor sources in 2020 and 1998 were compared, and the atmospheric circulation anomalies and the forcing factor SST were examined. (1) In 2020, the Meiyu duration, accumulated precipitation, and number of rainstorm days were greater than in 1998, and the highest since
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Deep learning model for heavy rainfall nowcasting in South Korea Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-22 Seok-Geun Oh, Seok-Woo Son, Young-Ha Kim, Chanil Park, Jihoon Ko, Kijung Shin, Ji-Hoon Ha, Hyesook Lee
Accurate nowcasting is critical for preemptive action in response to heavy rainfall events (HREs). However, operational numerical weather prediction models have difficulty predicting HREs in the short term, especially for rapidly and sporadically developing cases. Here, we present multi-year evaluation statistics showing that deep-learning-based HRE nowcasting, trained with radar images and ground
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Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analog importance sampling Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-17 Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
During the summer of 2021, the North American Pacific Northwest was affected by an extreme heatwave that broke previous temperature records by several degrees. The event caused severe impacts on human life and ecosystems, and was associated with the superposition of concurrent drivers, whose effects were amplified by climate change. We evaluate whether this record-breaking heatwave could have been
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Arctic springtime temperature and energy flux interannual variability is driven by 1- to 2-week frequency atmospheric events Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-09 Raleigh Grysko, Jin-Soo Kim, Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
The Arctic is experiencing amplified climate warming, decreasing sea ice extent, increasingly earlier springtime snowmelt, and a related increase in fire activity. The transition from cold to warm season in the Arctic strongly varies between years, but our understanding of temperature and surface energy budget changes over the springtime is limited. Here we investigate intraseasonal variability of
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Air-sea coupling influence on projected changes in major Atlantic hurricane events Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-30 Derrick K. Danso, Christina M. Patricola, Jaison Kurian, Ping Chang, Philip Klotzbach, I.-I. Lin
Tropical cyclone (TC) projections with atmosphere-only models are associated with uncertainties due to their inability to represent TC-ocean interactions. However, global coupled models, which represent TC-ocean interactions, can produce basin-scale sea surface temperature biases in seasonal to centennial simulations that lead to challenges in representing TC activity. Therefore, focusing on recent
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The meteorology and impacts of the September 2020 western United States extreme weather event Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-30 Emma N. Russell, Paul C. Loikith, Idowu Ajibade, James M. Done, Chris Lower
In September 2020, Western North America was impacted by a highly anomalous meteorological event. Over the Pacific Northwest, strong and dry easterly winds exceeded historically observed values for the time of year and contributed to the rapid spread of several large wildfires. Nine lives were lost and over 5000 homes and businesses were destroyed in Oregon. The smoke from the fires enveloped the region
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Uneven evolution of regional European summer heatwaves under climate change Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-30 Samira Khodayar Pardo, L. Paredes-Fortuny
Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme events magnified under climate change with critical implications for the human and environmental systems they impact. These phenomena are generally investigated as a large-scale effect over extensive regions. However, their regional-to-local characteristics and trends are responsible for the specific effects on local communities. This study presents a comprehensive analysis
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Hurricane track trends and environmental flow patterns under surface temperature changes and roughness length variations Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-28 Oussama Romdhani, Leo Matak, Mostafa Momen
Given the significant damage that hurricanes can cause every year, accurate forecasts of these extreme weather events are crucial. Ocean warming can substantially impact the intensity and track of hurricanes in the future. Forecasting the track of hurricanes is typically more challenging than intensity predictions since tracks are influenced not only by hurricane vortex dynamics but also by global
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Analysis of climatic extremes in the Parnaíba River Basin, Northeast Brazil, using GPM IMERG-V6 products Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-28 Flávia Ferreira Batista, Daniele Tôrres Rodrigues, Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva
Satellite products, such as the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals of IMERG from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, have emerged as promising tools to analyze precipitation distribution and extremes, particularly in regions with low rain gauge density and sparse distribution, such as Brazil. However, regional validation of satellite data is crucial. In this context, the validation
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Moisture source differences between the 2020 and 1998 super Meiyu-flood events in the Yangtze River Valley Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-20 Chi Zhang, Qiuhong Tang, Yang Zhao, Deliang Chen, Jinchuan Huang, Yubo Liu, Xu Zhang
Two historic Meiyu events in 1998 and 2020 hit the Yangtze River Valley (YRV), causing catastrophic damage to the socio-economy. By tracking moisture supplies to the extreme precipitation events using Water Accounting Model-2Layers and ERA5 reanalysis, the moisture origins and their differences in feeding the YRV precipitation were revealed. Climatologically, the southwest monsoon channel is the most
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The 2021 heatwave was less rare in Western Canada than previously thought Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Elizaveta Malinina, Nathan P. Gillett
The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave resulted in record temperatures observed across the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan as well as the US states of Washington and Oregon. Previous studies of extreme temperatures over arbitrarily-defined rectangular regions covering parts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia have estimated return periods of 200–100 000 years, generally
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Synoptic dynamics of cold waves over north India: Underlying mechanisms of distinct cold wave conditions Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-11 K.S. Athira, Raju Attada, V. Brahmananda Rao
The cold air outbreaks in the northern parts of India exert significant impacts on human health, energy, agriculture and transportation. In this study, we investigate the synoptic dynamics of cold waves and their linkages to large scale circulations for the winter period from 1982 to2020. Cold waves are classified into normal and intense (NCWs and ICWs) based on intensity and we examine the underlying
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Who is the major player for 2022 China extreme heat wave? Western Pacific Subtropical high or South Asian high? Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-11 Dapeng Zhang, Yanyan Huang, Botao Zhou, Huijun Wang, Bo Sun
A long-lasting, wide-ranging, and record-breaking extreme high-temperature (EHT) event hit China in the summer of 2022, causing adverse impacts on electricity supply, agriculture, and people's livelihoods. The abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high (SAH) in the upper troposphere was the dominant driver of the durative enhancement of EHT and can explain approximately 55.7% of
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Assessing the escalating human-perceived heatwaves in a warming world: The case of China Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2024-01-11 Jintao Zhang, Guoyu Ren, Qinglong You
With increased global warming, heatwaves are expected to become more intense, frequent, and persistent. Although the spatiotemporal characteristics of heatwaves have been extensively studied, the vast majority of these studies have solely used near-surface air temperatures, particularly daily maximum temperatures (Tmax), to identify heatwaves. Given that air temperature alone proves inadequate as a
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Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USA Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-19 Gebrekidan Worku Tefera, Ram L. Ray, Adrienne M. Wootten
This study evaluates statistical downscaling techniques using different metrics and compares climate change signals and extreme precipitation and temperature changes under future climate change scenarios in the Bosque watershed, North-Central Texas. The study utilizes observed gridded Daymet data to assess the effectiveness of statistical downscaling techniques. It involves comparing the mean, the
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Decadal to centennial extreme precipitation disaster gaps — Long-term variability and implications for extreme value modelling Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-16 Joel Zeder, Erich M. Fischer
A material consequence of climate change is the intensification of extreme precipitation in most regions across the globe. The respective trend signal is already detectable at global to regional scales, but long-term variability still dominates local observational records, which are the basis for extreme precipitation risk assessment. Whether the frequency of extreme events is purely random or subject
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Saharan rainfall climatology and its relationship with surface cyclones Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-14 Moshe Armon, Andries Jan de Vries, Francesco Marra, Nadav Peleg, Heini Wernli
The Sahara is the largest and driest of the hot deserts on Earth, with regions where rainfall reaches the surface on average less than once a year. Water resources are scarce, and rainfall tends to occur sporadically in space and time. While rain is a precious resource in the Sahara, heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the desert have the potential to trigger flash floods on the barren soil. Because
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Teleconnections link to summer heat extremes in the south-central U.S.: Insights from CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-08 Jung-Hee Ryu, Song-Lak Kang
This study examines the relationship between teleconnections, which represent quasiperiodic modes of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability, and extreme heatwaves in the south-central (SC) U.S. region, aiming to understand multiyear variability in the heat extremes. Observational data and model simulations reveal that soil water has a stronger influence on surface air temperature in the SC
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Rainfall frequency analysis using event-maximum rainfalls – An event-based mixture distribution modeling approach Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-08 Ke-Sheng Cheng, Bo-Yu Chen, Teng-Wei Lin, Kimihito Nakamura, Piyatida Ruangrassamee, Hidetaka Chikamori
Rainfall frequency analysis, an essential work for water resources management, is often conducted by using the annual maximum rainfall series. For rainfall stations with short record lengths and outliers presence, the use of annual maximum series for rainfall frequency analysis may yield design rainfall estimates of higher uncertainties. Moreover, for regions with cyclostationary climate patterns,
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Understanding the Magnification of Heatwaves over Spain: Relevant changes in the most extreme events Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-25 L. Paredes-Fortuny, S. Khodayar
Heatwaves (HW) are a growing climate change-related risk affecting people's lives every year. A consensus exists about the magnification of this phenomena under climate change; however, less is known about their regional-to-local evolution characteristics' undermining appropriate policy and preparedness actions. This study investigates, from 1951 to 2019, regional changes in the occurrence and characteristics
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Modulation of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones and extreme weather in Europe during North American cold spells Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-22 Richard Leeding, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Recent research has established a statistical link between North American cold spells (CS) and concurrent wet or windy extremes in Europe. Here, we investigate whether such a link can be related to changes in the characteristics of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones (hereafter cyclones). Despite large regions of anomalous baroclinicity during periods of North American CS, the number of cyclones
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Drought-heatwave compound events are stronger in drylands Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-22 Chuan Wang, Zhi Li, Yaning Chen, Lin Ouyang, Yupeng Li, Fan Sun, Yongchang Liu, Jianyu Zhu
Climate change is exacerbating the occurrence of compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs), which pose a serious threat to human health and socio-economic development. Using daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and monthly self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI) dataset, the evolution patterns of CDHWs and compound wet-heatwave events, the dominant drivers and the relative contributions
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Why are severe weather and anomalous climate events often associated with the orthogonal convergence of airflows? Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-22 Weihong Qian, Jun Du, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin Leung, Weijing Li, Fangfang Wu, Banglin Zhang
Severe weather often occurs in the areas where different cold-warm and dry-wet air masses converge orthogonally. The orthogonal convergence of two-adjacent air parcels can be observed from planetary-scale to synoptic-scale and meso-scale circulations. This study pointed out that an orthogonal convergence of two-adjacent horizontal air parcels can produce a significant non-zero shear stress with its
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Increase in optimal configuration of 25–60-day atmospheric circulations for Yangtze heavy rainfall under global warming background Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-19 Jianying Li, Yang Chen, Jiangyu Mao, Panmao Zhai
In summer, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) often suffers from severe floods as a result of a dominant intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of rainfall with the quasi-period of 25–60 days. 75% of flooding events during summers of 1961–2022 are found to occur following wet phases of the 25−60-day ISO in rainfall. This study objectively extracts the optimal configuration (OC) of 25−60-day
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Statistical and hydrodynamic numerical modeling to quantify storm surge hazard: Comparison of approaches applied to U.S. North Atlantic coast Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-18 Yasser Hamdi, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Joseph Kanney, Meredith L. Carr, Vincent Rebour
Estimating the storm surge magnitude and annual exceedance probability is a key element in the siting and design of coastal nuclear power plants in both the U.S. and France. However, differences in storm climatology, specifically the relative importance of tropical cyclones (TCs) versus extratropical storms (XTCs), have driven differences in estimation method development. This work compares purely
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A new and efficient method for tropical cyclone detection and tracking in gridded datasets Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-18 Tiantian Wu, Zhongdong Duan
Most of existing algorithms for detecting tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate model employed multiple detectors, and screened the field grid by grid by thresholding, while a quantitative assessment of the performance of these algorithms has been infrequent. A new method based on mathematical morphology for detecting and tracking TC in gridded reanalysis data is proposed and evaluated. The method
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The role of compound climate and weather extreme events in creating socio-economic impacts in South Florida Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-16 Javed Ali, Thomas Wahl, Alejandra R. Enriquez, Md Mamunur Rashid, Joao Morim, Melanie Gall, Christopher T. Emrich
Natural hazards such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires cause devastating socio-economic impacts on communities. In South Florida, most of these hazards are becoming increasingly frequent and severe because of the warming climate, and changes in vulnerability and exposure, resulting in significant damage to infrastructure, homes, and businesses. To better understand the drivers of these impacts,
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Stratosphere-troposphere coupling during stratospheric extremes in the 2022/23 winter Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-13 Qian Lu, Jian Rao, Chunhua Shi, Rongcai Ren, Yimin Liu, Siming Liu
Using the ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature, sea ice observations, and the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, the evolution of the stratospheric extreme circulation in the winter of 2022/2023 is explored. The stratospheric polar vortex was disturbed three times in the 2022/23 winter, contrasted with only one disturbance during the other three recent winters with an
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Attribution of extreme events to climate change in the Australian region – A review Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 T.P. Lane, A.D. King, S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, A.J. Pitman, L.V. Alexander, J.M. Arblaster, N.L. Bindoff, C.H. Bishop, M.T. Black, R.A. Bradstock, H.G. Clarke, A.J.E. Gallant, M.R. Grose, N.J. Holbrook, G.J. Holland, P.K. Hope, D.J. Karoly, T.H. Raupach, A.M. Ukkola
Extreme event attribution is a rapidly growing field of climate science with important implications for public and government understanding of human-induced climate change. However, there is substantial variation in how well events can be attributed to human-induced climate change, depending on the nature of the event. Focusing on Australia: at one end of the scale, large-scale heat events on both
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The future of extreme meteorological fire danger under climate change scenarios for Iberia Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-26 Virgilio A. Bento, Daniela C.A. Lima, Luana C. Santos, Miguel M. Lima, Ana Russo, Silvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Ricardo M. Trigo, Pedro M.M. Soares
Wildfires are disturbances that occur in ecosystems, both naturally and derived from anthropogenic factors, often caused by extreme meteorological conditions, and have recurrently destructive impacts on forests throughout the world. The complex nature of the interactions between wildfires, their dynamics, and human interference from a climate change perspective has motivated a growing number of researchers
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Incorporating rapidly developing thunderstorm data into a deep convection scheme for improving short-term prediction of heavy rainfall over South Korea Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-27 Namgu Yeo, Eun-Chul Chang, Ki-Hong Min
In this study, we examined the potential of the Korea Rapid-Development Thunderstorm (K-RDT) product obtained from a geostationary meteorological satellite to improve the short-term prediction of heavy rainfall caused by a mesoscale convective system over South Korea. Specifically, we utilized a simple nudging technique to integrate K-RDT data into the Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) deep convection
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Long-term warming and interannual variability contributions’ to marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-23 Amélie Simon, Carlos Pires, Thomas L. Frölicher, Ana Russo
In the past 40 years, marine heatwaves (MHWs) have experienced a worldwide increase in duration, intensity, frequency and spatial extent. This trend has been particularly evident in the Mediterranean, where exceptional events were observed during the summers of 2022, 2018 and 2003. This study proposes a twofold analysis of MHWs in the Mediterranean, focusing on their statistical characteristics and
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Projected changes in rainfall amount and distribution in the Democratic Republic of Congo – Evidence from an ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-18 Freddy Bangelesa, Daniel Abel, Felix Pollinger, Praveen Rai, Katrin Ziegler, Dav Ebengo, Raphael M. Tshimanga, Mapatano Mala Ali, Jasper Knight, Heiko Paeth
Extreme precipitation has been threatening many sectors of human society and is likely to intensify with global warming. In the present study, we have analysed the impact of future climate change on daily mean rainfall and heavy rainfall on seasonal and annual scales in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by using ten long-term runs of high-resolution regional climate models. We initially assessed
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Forecasting daily extreme temperatures in Chinese representative cities using artificial intelligence models Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-18 Hongyu An, Qinglan Li, Xinyan Lv, Guangxin Li, Qifeng Qian, Guanbo Zhou, Gaozhen Nie, Lijie Zhang, Linwei Zhu
Accurate daily extreme temperature forecasts are important for public safety. However, traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methods for temperature forecasting become increasingly costly and time-consuming as forecast resolution improves. To overcome these challenges, recent studies have embraced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. In this paper, we select five AI models: Multiple linear
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Human influences on spatially compounding flooding and heatwave events in China and future increasing risks Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-11 Cheng Qian, Yangbo Ye, Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler
Attribution of high-impact weather events to anthropogenic climate change is important for disentangling long-term trends from natural variability and estimating potential future impacts. Up to this point, most attribution studies have focused on univariate drivers, despite the fact that many impacts are related to multiple compounding weather and climate drivers. For instance, co-occurring climate
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Predictability of Northwest Pacific marine heatwaves in summer based on NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-11 Tong Zhang, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Jiechun Deng
Marine ecosystems in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being threatened by marine heatwaves (MHWs), which are abnormally high sea-surface temperature (SST) lasting for more than 5 days. However, there is limited research on the predictability of these MHWs. In this study, we investigate the predictability of NWP MHWs in summer using daily data from the coupled climate forecast system (version 1.0) of
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Spatiotemporal extension of extreme heat stress over East Asia under shared socioeconomic pathways Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-14 Yujin Kim, Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim, Eun-Soon Im, Dong-Hyun Cha, Joong-Bae Ahn, Eun-Chul Chang, Young-Hwa Byun, Youngeun Choi
This study examines future changes in extreme heat stress over East Asia and its sub-regions using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) based on the CORDEX East Asia Phase II multiple Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations performed under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Daily maximum WBGTs (WX) are obtained from 3-hourly bias-corrected WBGTs and their future changes in the late 21st century
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Efficient coastal inundation early-warning system for low-lying atolls, dealing with lagoon and ocean side inundation in Tarawa, Kiribati Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-10 Antonio Espejo, Moritz Wandres, Hervé Damlamian, Anuj Divesh, Judith Giblin, Jerome Aucan, Mauna Eria, Ueneta Toorua
Tarawa is a low-lying atoll in the Gilbert Island group, capital of the Republic of Kiribati and home of nearly 70.000 inhabitants. With limited land area, rapid population growth and urbanization, strong interannual sea level variability induced by ENSO and sea level rise, Tarawa is highly vulnerable to coastal flooding. In this context, Early Warning Systems are a proven cost-effective climate adaptation
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Analysis of precipitation-related climatic conditions in European plain regions Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-09 Alexandra Berényi, Judit Bartholy, Rita Pongrácz
Significant increases of extreme precipitation and drought events have been detected in Europe in the past few decades. In this study, 16 selected climate indices (11 recommended by the Expert Team of Climate Change and Indices) were used for the analysis of the temporal changes and spatial distribution of precipitation patterns in European plain regions during 1950–2022. Using an objective, two-step
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Analyzing temperature and precipitation extremes in China using multiple gridded datasets: A comparative evaluation Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-06 Shilong Ge, Chao Jiang, Jun Wang, Songnan Liu
Gridded meteorological datasets offer valuable data sources for monitoring and studying climate extremes. Based on the 2291 CMA meteorological observations, this paper evaluates and compares seven high-resolution gridded datasets and a global climate extremes indices datasets, HadEX3. Temporal and spatial consistency are assessed at the location of CMA observations. High-resolution gridded products
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Thermal stress during heat waves and cold spells in Poland Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-09-27 Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk, Ewa Bednorz
The study objective was the determination of the temporal and spatial variability/changes in the occurrence of heat waves and cold spells in Poland, and characteristics of biometeorological conditions during their occurrence based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The research was based on data provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute
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Study of early flood warning based on postprocessed predicted precipitation and Xinanjiang model Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-09-27 Xiaolei Jiang, Liping Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Xiaolei Fu, Jun Wang, Jiaxin Xu, Yuchen Zhang, Qi Zhong
Precipitation is the most common cause of flood. Accurate precipitation prediction is therefore important for flood forecasting and can be a key factor that increases lead time and the accuracy of early flood warning. In this study, the reforecast precipitation of the global ensemble forecast system (GEFS) was postprocessed using CSG EMOS (censored and shifted gamma distribution-based ensemble model
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Emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation intensification: from global to continental scales Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-09-27 Seungmok Paik, Soon-Il An, Seung-Ki Min, Andrew D. King, Soong-Ki Kim
Extreme precipitation intensification due to global warming has received significant attention; however, large uncertainties remain regarding how much it will change in the future, even under a given greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our constraining analysis provides smaller future extreme precipitation intensification with reduced uncertainties than raw/unconstrained model simulation projections
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Abrupt and persistent atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic under La Niña conditions Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-09-04 Marina García-Burgos, Iñigo Gómara, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Pablo Zurita-Gotor, Blanca Ayarzagüena
Several recent studies have linked the exceptional North Atlantic and Eurasian atmospheric evolution during late February and March 2018 to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) that took place a few weeks earlier. February 2018 was characterized by an abrupt transition from the positive to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a subsequent persistence of the negative NAO
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The emergence of a climate change signal in long-term Irish meteorological observations Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-09-04 Conor Murphy, Amy Coen, Ian Clancy, Victoria Decristoforo, Steven Cathal, Kevin Healion, Csaba Horvath, Christopher Jessop, Shane Kennedy, Rosalynd Lavery, Kevin Leonard, Ciara McLoughlin, Rory Moore, Daire O'Hare-Doherty, Ricky Paisley, Bipendra Prakash, Julie Vatu, Peter Thorne, Carla Mateus, Ciara Ryan, Simon Noone
Detecting the emergence of a forced anthropogenic climate change signal from observations is critical for informing adaptation responses. By regressing local variations in climate onto annual Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST), we track the emergence of an anthropogenic signal in long-term quality assured observations of temperature and precipitation for the island of Ireland, a sentinel location
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Anthropogenic warming reduces the likelihood of drought-breaking extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-09-05 C.M. Holgate, A.S. Pepler, I. Rudeva, N.J. Abram
Future climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts in many drought-prone regions of the world. However, coarsely-resolved and sometimes opposing rainfall changes across global climate models, and a lack of understanding of the weather-scale processes that cause droughts to begin and end, create uncertainties around these future changes in many regions. Here, we reveal
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Changes in design precipitation over the Nordic-Baltic region as given by convection-permitting climate simulations Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-08-26 Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, Erika Médus, Andreas Dobler, Øivind Hodnebrog, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Jonas Olsson, Emma Dybro Thomassen, Petter Lind, Dace Gaile, Piia Post
The increased risk of flooding due to global warming and subsequent heavy rainfall events in the Nordic-Baltic region, call for recommendations directed at long-term planning. One example of such recommendations are climate change allowances. These are often based on expected changes in design precipitation as given by climate model simulations, and are used as a buffer on top of current design values
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A spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climatic drivers influencing extreme precipitation events in a Costa Rican basin Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-08-21 Caroline N. Huguenin, Katherine A. Serafin, Peter R. Waylen
Regional patterns of rainfall are changing around the world, putting pressure on social, economic, and environmental systems, and changing the outlook for food, water, and health security. This is the case in the Tempisque-Bebedero River Basin (TBRB), located on the Pacific slope of northwest Costa Rica, which relies heavily on water resources for tourism, agriculture, ranching, and fish farming. In
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Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving factors of flash drought recovery: From the perspective of soil moisture and GPP changes Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-08-21 Haichen Wang, Qian Zhu, Yushi Wang, Hao Zhang
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Season-dependent heatwave mechanisms: A study of southern China Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-08-17 Sijia Wu, Ming Luo, Xiaoyu Wang, Erjia Ge, Wei Zhang, Xihui Gu, Jianyu Liu
Heatwaves are among the deadliest weather-related disasters. They are not only seen in summer but also may appear in spring and autumn, especially under climate warming. Although the mechanisms of summertime heatwaves have been extensively studied, how they differ from spring and autumn seasons and possibly season-dependent mechanisms of heatwaves are poorly understood. Here we examine the specific
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Accounting for seasonality in the metastatistical extreme value distribution Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-08-14 Marc-André Falkensteiner, Harald Schellander, Gregor Ehrensperger, Tobias Hell
The typical approach to account for non-stationarity in the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is to model the temporal behavior of the GEV parameters, e. g.,with linear relationships between the parameters and e. g.,the year. When in addition, seasonality, i. e., sub-yearly patterns are of interest, this relationship needs to be more complex. A natural candidate for nonstationary analysis
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Estimation of skew surge uncertainties when predicting tides in the past Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-08-04 Nathalie Giloy, Alexa Latapy, Gaël André
The study of storm surges and more generally of extreme events is a subject of growing interest in the current context of coastal risk management in a changing climate. Recent studies show that the consideration of past events improves statistical models. In this context, important investigations have been carried out in the last decade to retrieve and quantify water levels and skew surges associated
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Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-08-02 Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Robert A. Jane, Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh
Flooding in low-lying coastal zones arises from coastal (storm surge, tides, and waves), fluvial (excessive river discharge), and pluvial (excessive surface runoff) drivers. We analyse changes in compound flooding potential around the contiguous United States (CONUS) coastline stemming from select combinations of these flooding drivers using long observational records with at least 55 years of data
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Flash flood detection and susceptibility mapping in the Monsoon period by integration of optical and radar satellite imagery using an improvement of a sequential ensemble algorithm Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-07-29 Seyed Vahid Razavi-Termeh, MyoungBae Seo, Abolghasem Sadeghi-Niaraki, Soo-Mi Choi
Rainfall monsoons and the resulting flooding have always been cataclysmic disasters that have heightened global concerns in light of climate change. Flood susceptibility modeling is an indirect method for reducing flood disaster losses. This study aimed to improve flood susceptibility modeling by developing a sequential ensemble (extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)) model utilizing three swarm-based
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A spatially-dependent synthetic global dataset of extreme sea level events Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-07-29 Huazhi Li, Toon Haer, Anaïs Couasnon, Alejandra R. Enríquez, Sanne Muis, Philip J. Ward
Current coastal flood risk assessments fail to capture flood spatial dependence at large scales. In this paper, we develop the first global synthetic dataset of spatially-dependent extreme sea level events, by applying an existing conditional multivariate statistical model to 40-year global reanalysis sea levels. The resulting dataset contains 10,000 years of extreme events with realistic spatial dependence
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How persistent and hazardous will extreme temperature events become in a warming Portugal? Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-07-29 Rita M. Cardoso, Daniela C.A. Lima, Pedro M.M. Soares
The impact of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere on the temperature distributions is felt not only in the mean values but primarily in the extremes. The temperature distributions are becoming slightly flattened and more broadened towards higher values, leading to a decrease in extreme cold events and more importantly to a considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme
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Quantifying uncertainties in tropical cyclone wind hazard assessment due to synthetic track stochastic variability for Southeast Asia Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-07-29 Wei Jian, Edmond Yat-Man Lo, Pane Stojanovski, Tso-Chien Pan
Extreme tropical cyclones (TCs) present serious threat to Southeast Asian communities, causing widespread loss of lives and property damages. This study investigates the uncertainties in probabilistic TC wind hazard assessment due to stochastic variability in the underlying synthetic TC track ensembles. We focus on landfall TCs in the Philippines and Vietnam using multiple realisations from a single
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What is the probability that a drought will break in Australia? Weather Clim. Extrem. (IF 8.0) Pub Date : 2023-07-29 Anjana Devanand, Jason P. Evans, Gab Abramowitz, Sanaa Hobeichi, Andy J. Pitman
Large scale modes of climate variability influence rainfall and soil moisture in southeastern Australia, and extended dry conditions have been associated with a lack of climate mode phases conducive to wetter conditions. However, the role of large-scale climate variability in breaking ongoing soil moisture droughts has not been well quantified, and the utility of large-scale signals in drought recovery