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  • Publisher Correction: A recent decline in North Atlantic subtropical mode water formation
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-22
    Samuel W. Stevens; Rodney J. Johnson; Guillaume Maze; Nicholas R. Bates

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-09-22
  • A preference for constant costs
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-21
    Christopher Warshaw

    Raising the cost of carbon is critical for effective climate policy, but is politically challenging because the public are averse to costs. Conventional wisdom suggests this could be addressed by giving the public time to adjust by gradually increasing costs. However, new research shows that the public actually prefers a constant cost curve.

    更新日期:2020-09-21
  • Constant carbon pricing increases support for climate action compared to ramping up costs over time
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-21
    Michael M. Bechtel; Kenneth F. Scheve; Elisabeth van Lieshout

    The introduction of policies that increase the price of carbon is central to limiting the adverse effects of global warming. Conventional wisdom holds that, of the possible cost paths, gradually raising costs relating to climate action will receive the most public support. Here, we explore mass support for dynamic cost paths in four major economies (France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United

    更新日期:2020-09-21
  • Climate velocity in inland standing waters
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-21
    R. Iestyn Woolway; Stephen C. Maberly

    Inland standing waters are particularly vulnerable to increasing water temperature. Here, using a high-resolution numerical model, we find that the velocity of climate change in the surface of inland standing waters globally was 3.5 ± 2.3 km per decade from 1861 to 2005, which is similar to, or lower than, rates of active dispersal of some motile species. However, from 2006 to 2099, the velocity of

    更新日期:2020-09-21
  • Addressing power imbalances in co-production
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Katharine Vincent; Suzanne Carter; Anna Steynor; Emma Visman; Katinka Lund Wågsæther

    Co-production is an increasingly popular approach to knowledge generation encouraged by donors and research funders. However, power dynamics between institutions in the Global North and South can, if not adequately managed, impede the effectiveness of co-production and pose risks for long-term sustainability.

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • Weakening Atlantic overturning circulation causes South Atlantic salinity pile-up
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Chenyu Zhu; Zhengyu Liu

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an active component of the Earth’s climate system1 and its response to global warming is of critical importance to society. Climate models have shown an AMOC slowdown under anthropogenic warming since the industrial revolution2,3,4, but this slowdown has been difficult to detect in the short observational record5,6,7,8,9,10 because of substantial

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • Climate change increases predation risk for a keystone species of the boreal forest
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Michael J. L. Peers; Yasmine N. Majchrzak; Allyson K. Menzies; Emily K. Studd; Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau; Rudy Boonstra; Murray Humphries; Thomas S. Jung; Alice J. Kenney; Charles J. Krebs; Dennis L. Murray; Stan Boutin

    Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) form a keystone predator–prey cycle that has large impacts on the North American boreal forest vertebrate community. Snowshoe hares and lynx are both well-suited for snowy winters, but climate change-associated shifts in snow conditions could lower hare survival and alter cyclic dynamics. Using detailed monitoring of snowshoe hare

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Roman Hoffmann; Anna Dimitrova; Raya Muttarak; Jesus Crespo Cuaresma; Jonas Peisker

    The impact of climate change on migration has gained both academic and public interest in recent years. Here we employ a meta-analysis approach to synthesize the evidence from 30 country-level studies that estimate the effect of slow- and rapid-onset events on migration worldwide. Most studies find that environmental hazards affect migration, although with contextual variation. Migration is primarily

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Laura Landrum; Marika M. Holland

    The Arctic is rapidly warming and experiencing tremendous changes in sea ice, ocean and terrestrial regions. Lack of long-term scientific observations makes it difficult to assess whether Arctic changes statistically represent a ‘new Arctic’ climate. Here we use five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 class Earth system model large ensembles to show how the Arctic is transitioning from a dominantly

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • Publisher Correction: Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-10
    K. J. Feeley; C. Bravo-Avila; B. Fadrique; T. M. Perez; D. Zuleta

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-09-10
  • Wrong-way migrations of benthic species driven by ocean warming and larval transport
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-07
    Heidi L. Fuchs; Robert J. Chant; Elias J. Hunter; Enrique N. Curchitser; Gregory P. Gerbi; Emily Y. Chen

    Ocean warming has predictably driven some marine species to migrate polewards or to deeper water, matching rates of environmental temperature change (climate velocity) to remain at tolerable temperatures. Most species conforming to expectations are fish and other strong swimmers that can respond to temperature change by migrating as adults. On the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf, however, many

    更新日期:2020-09-08
  • Embodied carbon emissions in the supply chains of multinational enterprises
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-07
    Zengkai Zhang; Dabo Guan; Ran Wang; Jing Meng; Heran Zheng; Kunfu Zhu; Huibin Du

    Enterprises are at the forefront of climate actions and multinational enterprises (MNEs) engage in foreign direct investment, allowing them substantial influence over the entire supply chain. Yet emissions embodied in the international supply chains of MNEs are poorly known. Here we trace the carbon footprints of foreign affiliates of MNEs and show that the gross volume of global carbon transfer through

    更新日期:2020-09-08
  • Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-31
    Thomas Slater; Anna E. Hogg; Ruth Mottram

    Observed ice-sheet losses track the upper range of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report sea-level predictions, recently driven by ice dynamics in Antarctica and surface melting in Greenland. Ice-sheet models must account for short-term variability in the atmosphere, oceans and climate to accurately predict sea-level rise.

    更新日期:2020-08-31
  • Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-31
    Dan H. Shugar; Aaron Burr; Umesh K. Haritashya; Jeffrey S. Kargel; C. Scott Watson; Maureen C. Kennedy; Alexandre R. Bevington; Richard A. Betts; Stephan Harrison; Katherine Strattman

    Glacial lakes are rapidly growing in response to climate change and glacier retreat. The role of these lakes as terrestrial storage for glacial meltwater is currently unknown and not accounted for in global sea level assessments. Here, we map glacier lakes around the world using 254,795 satellite images and use scaling relations to estimate that global glacier lake volume increased by around 48%, to

    更新日期:2020-08-31
  • Arctic sea-ice loss intensifies aerosol transport to the Tibetan Plateau
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-31
    Fei Li; Xin Wan; Huijun Wang; Yvan Joseph Orsolini; Zhiyuan Cong; Yongqi Gao; Shichang Kang

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has recently been polluted by anthropogenic emissions transported from South Asia, but the mechanisms conducive to this aerosol delivery are poorly understood. Here we show that winter loss of Arctic sea ice over the subpolar North Atlantic boosts aerosol transport toward the TP in April, when the aerosol loading is at its climatological maximum and preceding the Indian summer

    更新日期:2020-08-31
  • Fuelling transport
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-27

    In this interconnected world, many of us would regularly jump on a plane, or train, for a weekend away, or into a car to pop to the shops or to visit family and friends. But the way we travel, day-to-day and on longer trips, will need to change if mitigation targets, including net-zero aspirations, are to be met.

    更新日期:2020-08-27
  • The hydrogen solution?
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-27
    Sonja van Renssen

    A new star has exploded back onto the climate scene: hydrogen. It offers possibilities to move away from fossil fuels, but it brings its own challenges.

    更新日期:2020-08-27
  • Resilience in the developing world benefits everyone
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-27
    Tim Palmer

    We need a modern-day Marshall Plan to build climate resilience in the developing world. It is doable if, for each dollar spent reaching net zero, we spend an additional 25 cents on building resilience.

    更新日期:2020-08-27
  • The privilege of longevity
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Gonçalo Ferraz

    Theory and observation suggest that populations of long-lived organisms fare worse than short-lived counterparts when submitted to increased mortality. Now, research shows that longevity affords the prospect of reducing mortality by breeding less under stress.

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Longer-lived tropical songbirds reduce breeding activity as they buffer impacts of drought
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Thomas E. Martin; James C. Mouton

    Droughts are expected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Population impacts of such harsh environmental events are theorized to vary with life history strategies among species. However, existing demographic models generally do not consider behavioural plasticity that may modify the impact of harsh events. Here we show that tropical songbirds in the New and Old Worlds reduced

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Responses of global waterbird populations to climate change vary with latitude
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Tatsuya Amano; Tamás Székely; Hannah S. Wauchope; Brody Sandel; Szabolcs Nagy; Taej Mundkur; Tom Langendoen; Daniel Blanco; Nicole L. Michel; William J. Sutherland

    Most research on climate change impacts on global biodiversity lacks the resolution to detect changes in species abundance and is limited to temperate ecosystems. This limits our understanding of global responses in species abundance—a determinant of extinction risk and ecosystem function and services—to climate change, including in the highly biodiverse tropics. We address this knowledge gap by quantifying

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO 2 mitigation in road transport
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Jonn Axsen; Patrick Plötz; Michael Wolinetz

    Transport CO2 emissions continue to grow globally despite advances in low-carbon technology and goal setting by numerous governments. In this Perspective, we summarize available evidence for the effectiveness of climate policies and policy mixes for road transport relative to 2030 and 2050 mitigation goals implied by the Paris Agreement. Current policy mixes in most countries are not nearly stringent

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Performance determinants show European cities are delivering on climate mitigation
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Angel Hsu; Jonas Tan; Yi Ming Ng; Wayne Toh; Regina Vanda; Nihit Goyal

    Cities are crucial climate change actors, developing largely voluntary action plans and emission reduction targets. There is limited evidence, however, of their impact through transnational climate initiatives and little empirical support linking mitigation strategies and emissions reductions. Here, we show that 60% of more than 1,000 EU Covenant of Mayors’ cities are on track to achieve their 2020

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • The climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    S. V. Hanssen; V. Daioglou; Z. J. N. Steinmann; J. C. Doelman; D. P. Van Vuuren; M. A. J. Huijbregts

    Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can act as a negative emission technology and is considered crucial in many climate change mitigation pathways that limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C; however, the negative emission potential of BECCS has not been rigorously assessed. Here we perform a global spatially explicit analysis of life-cycle GHG emissions for lignocellulosic crop-based BECCS

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Jay Fuhrman; Haewon McJeon; Pralit Patel; Scott C. Doney; William M. Shobe; Andres F. Clarens

    Scenarios for meeting ambitious climate targets rely on large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs), including direct air capture (DAC). However, the tradeoffs between food, water and energy created by deploying different NETs are unclear. Here we show that DAC could provide up to 3 GtCO2 yr−1 of negative emissions by 2035—equivalent to 7% of 2019 global CO2 emissions—based on

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Record Greenland mass loss
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-20
    Yara Mohajerani

    Gravity-based estimates of mass change have been extended by the recently launched GRACE Follow-On Satellites. The satellite record, combined with regional climate models, reveals that the Greenland Ice Sheet had lower mass loss in 2017–2018, only to return to a record-breaking mass loss in the summer of 2019.

    更新日期:2020-08-20
  • Rising groundwater and sea-level rise
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-17
    Christine May

    The response of coastal groundwater to sea-level rise is largely unknown. Groundwater modelling along the California coast — accounting for complex topography and its interaction with rivers, streams and tributaries — shows that the area at risk from rising groundwater tables extends beyond that inundated by sea-level rise alone.

    更新日期:2020-08-17
  • Increasing threat of coastal groundwater hazards from sea-level rise in California
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-17
    K. M. Befus; P. L. Barnard; D. J. Hoover; J. A. Finzi Hart; C. I. Voss

    Projected sea-level rise will raise coastal water tables, resulting in groundwater hazards that threaten shallow infrastructure and coastal ecosystem resilience. Here we model a range of sea-level rise scenarios to assess the responses of water tables across the diverse topography and climates of the California coast. With 1 m of sea-level rise, areas flooded from below are predicted to expand ~50–130 m

    更新日期:2020-08-17
  • Economic and social constraints on reforestation for climate mitigation in Southeast Asia
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-17
    Yiwen Zeng; Tasya Vadya Sarira; L. Roman Carrasco; Kwek Yan Chong; Daniel A. Friess; Janice Ser Huay Lee; Pierre Taillardat; Thomas A. Worthington; Yuchen Zhang; Lian Pin Koh

    As climate change continues to threaten human and natural systems, the search for cost-effective and practical mitigation solutions is gaining momentum. Reforestation has recently been identified as a promising nature-based climate solution. Yet there are context-dependent biophysical, financial, land-use and operational constraints to reforestation that demand careful consideration. Here, we show

    更新日期:2020-08-17
  • Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-17
    K. J. Feeley; C. Bravo-Avila; B. Fadrique; T. M. Perez; D. Zuleta

    Climate change is altering the distributions of species, which in turn causes shifts in the composition of plant communities. Specifically, rising temperatures should cause increasing relative abundances of heat-loving or heat-tolerant species (that is, ‘thermophilization’) and changes in precipitation should cause altered abundances of water-demanding species. We analysed millions of records of thousands

    更新日期:2020-08-17
  • Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-17
    Yona Silvy; Eric Guilyardi; Jean-Baptiste Sallée; Paul J. Durack

    The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. Here, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic

    更新日期:2020-08-17
  • A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-17
    Noah Kaufman; Alexander R. Barron; Wojciech Krawczyk; Peter Marsters; Haewon McJeon

    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO2 prices. Here we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO2 emissions target. This approach dovetails

    更新日期:2020-08-17
  • Erratum: Publisher Correction: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19.
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-14
    Piers M Forster,Harriet I Forster,Mat J Evans,Matthew J Gidden,Chris D Jones,Christoph A Keller,Robin D Lamboll,Corinne Le Quéré,Joeri Rogelj,Deborah Rosen,Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,Thomas B Richardson,Christopher J Smith,Steven T Turnock

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-08-14
  • Author Correction: Climate change and locust outbreak in East Africa
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-14
    Abubakr A. M. Salih; Marta Baraibar; Kenneth Kemucie Mwangi; Guleid Artan

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-08-14
  • Heavy rain, come today
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-10
    Ethan E. Butler

    More intense precipitation is an expected consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Now research quantifies the effect of more concentrated rainfall on American agriculture.

    更新日期:2020-08-10
  • Net benefits to US soy and maize yields from intensifying hourly rainfall
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-10
    Corey Lesk; Ethan Coffel; Radley Horton

    Many varieties of short-duration extreme weather pose a threat to global crop production, food security and farmer livelihoods1,2,3,4. Hourly exposure to extreme heat has been identified as detrimental to crop yields1,5; however, the influence of hourly rainfall intensity and extremes on yields remains unknown4,6,7. Here, we show that while maize and soy yields in the United States are severely damaged

    更新日期:2020-08-10
  • Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-10
    Maria-Vittoria Guarino; Louise C. Sime; David Schröeder; Irene Malmierca-Vallet; Erica Rosenblum; Mark Ringer; Jeff Ridley; Danny Feltham; Cecilia Bitz; Eric J. Steig; Eric Wolff; Julienne Stroeve; Alistair Sellar

    The Last Interglacial (LIG), a warmer period 130,000–116,000 years before present, is a potential analogue for future climate change. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures 4–5 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era. Climate model simulations have previously failed to capture these elevated temperatures, possibly because they were unable

    更新日期:2020-08-10
  • Social determinants of adaptive and transformative responses to climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-10
    Michele L. Barnes; Peng Wang; Joshua E. Cinner; Nicholas A. J. Graham; Angela M. Guerrero; Lorien Jasny; Jacqueline Lau; Sarah R. Sutcliffe; Jessica Zamborain-Mason

    To cope effectively with the impacts of climate change, people will need to change existing practices or behaviours within existing social–ecological systems (adaptation) or enact more fundamental changes that can alter dominant social–ecological relationships and create new systems or futures (transformation). Here we use multilevel network modelling to examine how different domains of adaptive capacity—assets

    更新日期:2020-08-10
  • Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-06
    Piers M. Forster; Harriet I. Forster; Mat J. Evans; Matthew J. Gidden; Chris D. Jones; Christoph A. Keller; Robin D. Lamboll; Corinne Le Quéré; Joeri Rogelj; Deborah Rosen; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Thomas B. Richardson; Christopher J. Smith; Steven T. Turnock

    The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend

    更新日期:2020-08-08
  • Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-03
    Lauren J. Vargo; Brian M. Anderson; Ruzica Dadić; Huw J. Horgan; Andrew N. Mackintosh; Andrew D. King; Andrew M. Lorrey

    Glaciers are unique indicators of climate change. While recent global-scale glacier decline has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing, direct links between human-induced climate warming and extreme glacier mass-loss years have not been documented. Here we apply event attribution methods to document this at the regional scale, targeting the highest mass-loss years (2011 and 2018) across New Zealand’s

    更新日期:2020-08-03
  • Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-03
    Chaopeng Hong; Qiang Zhang; Yang Zhang; Steven J. Davis; Xin Zhang; Dan Tong; Dabo Guan; Zhu Liu; Kebin He

    Future climate change may worsen air quality in many regions. However, evaluations of this ‘climate penalty’ on air quality have typically not assessed the radiative effects of changes in short-lived aerosols. Additionally, China’s clean air goals will decrease pollutant emissions and aerosol loadings, with concomitant weakening of aerosol feedbacks. Here we assess how such weakened aerosol direct

    更新日期:2020-08-03
  • Identification of local water resource vulnerability to rapid deglaciation in Alberta
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-03
    Sam Anderson; Valentina Radić

    Global glacier retreat driven by climate change will have major impacts on regional water availability, as many communities rely on glacier runoff for water supply during warm and dry seasons. A community whose water resources are potentially vulnerable is one that sources water from a glacier-fed river where that river is expected to substantially change if glacier contributions become negligible

    更新日期:2020-08-03
  • Author Correction: Increased impacts on US West Coast
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-31
    Hien X. Bui

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-07-31
  • Author Correction: Remote sensing northern lake methane ebullition
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-31
    M. Engram; K. M. Walter Anthony; T. Sachs; K. Kohnert; A. Serafimovich; G. Grosse; F. J. Meyer

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-07-31
  • Function over form
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-29

    Nature Climate Change is making changes to our article formats to streamline our content and more clearly denote original research contributions.

    更新日期:2020-07-30
  • Past perspectives on the present era of abrupt Arctic climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-29
    Eystein Jansen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Trond Dokken; Kerim H. Nisancioglu; Bo M. Vinther; Emilie Capron; Chuncheng Guo; Mari F. Jensen; Peter L. Langen; Rasmus A. Pedersen; Shuting Yang; Mats Bentsen; Helle A. Kjær; Henrik Sadatzki; Evangeline Sessford; Martin Stendel

    Abrupt climate change is a striking feature of many climate records, particularly the warming events in Greenland ice cores. These abrupt and high-amplitude events were tightly coupled to rapid sea-ice retreat in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, and observational evidence shows they had global repercussions. In the present-day Arctic, sea-ice loss is also key to ongoing warming. This Perspective

    更新日期:2020-07-30
  • Trading for climate resilience
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-27
    Victor Nechifor; Emanuele Ferrari

    International trade plays an important role in ensuring the resilience of the global food system. Now research suggests a further reduction in trade barriers could alleviate the impacts of climate change on hunger risk.

    更新日期:2020-07-27
  • The future of coal in a carbon-constrained climate
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-27
    Michael Jakob; Jan Christoph Steckel; Frank Jotzo; Benjamin K. Sovacool; Laura Cornelsen; Rohit Chandra; Ottmar Edenhofer; Chris Holden; Andreas Löschel; Ted Nace; Nick Robins; Jens Suedekum; Johannes Urpelainen

    Phasing out coal requires expanding the notion of a ‘just transition’ and a roadmap that specifies the sequence of coal plant retirement, the appropriate policy instruments as well as ways to include key stakeholders in the process.

    更新日期:2020-07-27
  • Fair-share carbon dioxide removal increases major emitter responsibility
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-27
    Claire L. Fyson; Susanne Baur; Matthew Gidden; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    The Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal is to be achieved on the basis of equity. Accomplishing this goal will require carbon dioxide removal (CDR), yet existing plans for CDR deployment are insufficient to meet potential global needs, and equitable approaches for distributing CDR responsibilities between nations are lacking. Here we apply two common burden-sharing principles to show how CDR

    更新日期:2020-07-27
  • Putting wind dispersal in context
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-20
    Gil Bohrer; Jelle Treep

    Climate change will lead to geographic shifts in global habitats, forcing plant populations to migrate or perish. Model-based analysis for wind-dispersed plants under future climate conditions show the importance of considering both ‘where to go’, in terms of the desired temperature, and ‘how to get there’, in terms of wind speed and direction.

    更新日期:2020-07-20
  • Global wind patterns and the vulnerability of wind-dispersed species to climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-20
    Matthew M. Kling; David D. Ackerly

    The resilience of biodiversity in the face of climate change depends on gene flow and range shifts. For diverse wind-dispersed and wind-pollinated organisms, regional wind patterns could either facilitate or hinder these movements, depending on alignment of winds with spatial climate patterns. We map global variation in terrestrial wind regimes, and model how ‘windscape’ connectivity will shape inbound

    更新日期:2020-07-20
  • Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-20
    Péter K. Molnár; Cecilia M. Bitz; Marika M. Holland; Jennifer E. Kay; Stephanie R. Penk; Steven C. Amstrup

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) require sea ice for capturing seals and are expected to decline range-wide as global warming and sea-ice loss continue1,2. Estimating when different subpopulations will likely begin to decline has not been possible to date because data linking ice availability to demographic performance are unavailable for most subpopulations2 and unobtainable a priori for the projected

    更新日期:2020-07-20
  • Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-20
    Charlotte Janssens; Petr Havlík; Tamás Krisztin; Justin Baker; Stefan Frank; Tomoko Hasegawa; David Leclère; Sara Ohrel; Shaun Ragnauth; Erwin Schmid; Hugo Valin; Nicole Van Lipzig; Miet Maertens

    International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished

    更新日期:2020-07-20
  • Climate laws help reduce emissions
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-13
    Navroz K. Dubash

    Over the last two decades, many countries have passed laws addressing climate change and related areas. Research now shows that these laws make a difference to emission outcomes, but the pathways of impact require further research.

    更新日期:2020-07-13
  • Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from national climate legislation
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-13
    Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander; Sam Fankhauser

    The international response to climate change has been inadequate, but not zero. There are 1,800 climate change laws worldwide. We use panel data on legislative activity in 133 countries over the period 1999–2016 to identify statistically the short-term and long-term impact of climate legislation. Each new law reduces annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 0.78%

    更新日期:2020-07-13
  • Reconciling theory with the reality of African heatwaves
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-13
    Luke J. Harrington; Friederike E. L. Otto

    Extreme weather damage databases report no significant heatwave impacts in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900, yet the region has experienced a number of heatwaves and will be affected disproportionately by them under climate change. Addressing this reporting discrepancy is crucial to assess the impacts of future extreme heat there.

    更新日期:2020-07-13
  • Relocation planning must address voluntary immobility
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-13
    Carol Farbotko; Olivia Dun; Fanny Thornton; Karen E. McNamara; Celia McMichael

    Planned relocation of communities exposed to climate hazards is an important adaptation measure. However, relocation planning and policies must recognize and support those who do not wish to relocate, particularly groups with strong place attachment and for whom relocation may increase, not reduce, vulnerability.

    更新日期:2020-07-13
  • Climate economics support for the UN climate targets
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-13
    Martin C. Hänsel; Moritz A. Drupp; Daniel J. A. Johansson; Frikk Nesje; Christian Azar; Mark C. Freeman; Ben Groom; Thomas Sterner

    Under the UN Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting global warming to well below 2 °C and to actively pursue a 1.5 °C limit. Yet, according to the 2018 Economics Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, these targets are economically suboptimal or unattainable and the world community should aim for 3.5 °C in 2100 instead. Here, we show that the UN climate targets may be optimal even in the Dynamic

    更新日期:2020-07-13
  • Warming trends increasingly dominate global ocean
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-13
    Gregory C. Johnson; John M. Lyman

    The ocean takes up about 93% of the global warming heat entering Earth’s climate system. In addition, the associated thermal expansion contributes substantially to sea-level rise. Hence, quantifying the oceanic heat uptake rate and its statistical significance has been a research focus. Here we use gridded ocean heat content maps to examine regional trends in ocean warming for 0–700 m depth from 1993–2019

    更新日期:2020-07-13
  • Short-lived climate forcers have long-term climate impacts via the carbon–climate feedback
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-07-13
    Bo Fu; Thomas Gasser; Bengang Li; Shu Tao; Philippe Ciais; Shilong Piao; Yves Balkanski; Wei Li; Tianya Yin; Luchao Han; Xinyue Li; Yunman Han; Jie An; Siyuan Peng; Jing Xu

    Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) like methane, ozone and aerosols have a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2 and are often assumed to have a short-term effect on the climate system: should their emissions cease, so would their radiative forcing (RF). However, via their climate impact, SLCFs can affect carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2, causing additional climate change. Here, we use a compact Earth

    更新日期:2020-07-13
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