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  • Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-30
    Wenju Cai; Kai Yang; Lixin Wu; Gang Huang; Agus Santoso; Benjamin Ng; Guojian Wang; Toshio Yamagata

    A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) induces weather extremes such as the 2019 Australian bushfires and African floods. The impact is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST), yet models disagree on how pIOD SST may respond to greenhouse warming. Here we find increased SST variability of strong pIOD events, with strong equatorial eastern Indian Ocean cool anomalies, but decreased variability

    更新日期:2020-12-01
  • Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-25
    Brian C. O’Neill; Timothy R. Carter; Kristie Ebi; Paula A. Harrison; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Kasper Kok; Elmar Kriegler; Benjamin L. Preston; Keywan Riahi; Jana Sillmann; Bas J. van Ruijven; Detlef van Vuuren; David Carlisle; Cecilia Conde; Jan Fuglestvedt; Carole Green; Tomoko Hasegawa; Julia Leininger; Seth Monteith; Ramon Pichs-Madruga

    Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what

    更新日期:2020-11-25
  • Two roads diverge
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-24

    The past year has seen climate change manifest in wildfires, storms and flooding, in some cases simultaneous with outbreaks of the COVID-19 pandemic that restricted human activity and impacted global emissions. Despite these trials, other developments hint at the potential for positive steps in climate mitigation.

    更新日期:2020-11-25
  • Increased ocean heat transport into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean over the period 1993–2016
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-23
    Takamasa Tsubouchi; Kjetil Våge; Bogi Hansen; Karin Margretha H. Larsen; Svein Østerhus; Clare Johnson; Steingrímur Jónsson; Héðinn Valdimarsson

    Warm water of subtropical origin flows northward in the Atlantic Ocean and transports heat to high latitudes. This poleward heat transport has been implicated as one possible cause of the declining sea-ice extent and increasing ocean temperatures across the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean, but robust estimates are still lacking. Here, we use a box inverse model and more than 20 years of volume transport

    更新日期:2020-11-23
  • Body size shapes thermal stress
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-16
    Lauren B. Buckley

    Body sizes have been declining in response to climate change, but an expected relationship between size and the hot temperatures organisms can tolerate has eluded detection. Now, research shows how body size and the duration of exposure to hot temperatures interact to determine the onset and consequences of thermal stress.

    更新日期:2020-11-16
  • Heat tolerance in ectotherms scales predictably with body size
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-16
    Ignacio Peralta-Maraver; Enrico L. Rezende

    Recent studies suggest that animals are decreasing in size as a general response to global warming, for reasons that remain unclear. Here, by analysing ectotherm death time curves that take into consideration the intensity and duration of a thermal challenge, we show that heat tolerance varies predictably with size. Smaller animals can maintain higher body temperatures than larger ones during short

    更新日期:2020-11-16
  • Accountability and data-driven urban climate governance
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-16
    Sara Hughes; Sarah Giest; Laura Tozer

    The use of increasingly large and diverse datasets to guide urban climate action has implications for how, and by whom, local governments are held accountable. This Review focuses on emerging dynamics of accountability in data-driven urban climate change governance. Current understandings of the implications for accountability are examined based on three common rationales for prioritizing data-driven

    更新日期:2020-11-16
  • Climate change risk to global port operations
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-09
    C. Izaguirre; I. J. Losada; P. Camus; J. L. Vigh; V. Stenek

    The ports sector is critical to global transport and trade. Climate change may compromise port operations, resulting in an increase in operational shutdowns and subsequent economic losses. Here, we present an analysis of historical global risk across the operations of 2,013 ports worldwide and the impacts under a high-end warming scenario, considering atmospheric and marine hazards, industry established

    更新日期:2020-11-09
  • Why the divestment movement is missing the mark
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-02
    Felix Mormann

    Despite a strong media presence and pledges from high-profile investors, the divestment movement has largely failed to mobilize financial markets in the war on carbon. Divestment 2.0 will require major tweaking to more effectively redirect the flow of capital and catalyse greater corporate climate action.

    更新日期:2020-11-02
  • Future impacts of climate change on inland Ramsar wetlands
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-11-02
    Yi Xi; Shushi Peng; Philippe Ciais; Youhua Chen

    The 1971 Ramsar Convention promotes wetland conservation worldwide, yet climate change impacts on wetland extent and associated biodiversity are unclear. Hydrological modelling and soil moisture estimates are used to quantify climate change-driven shifts in wetland area across 1,250 inland Ramsar sites. We estimate that net global wetland area expanded during 1980–2014, but 47% of sites experienced

    更新日期:2020-11-02
  • Climate connections
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-27

    The climate crisis highlights just how connected the world is. But understanding the changes cascading throughout the natural world calls for even greater connectivity: between countries, scientists and scientific disciplines.

    更新日期:2020-10-28
  • The future of Arctic sea-ice biogeochemistry and ice-associated ecosystems
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-27
    Delphine Lannuzel; Letizia Tedesco; Maria van Leeuwe; Karley Campbell; Hauke Flores; Bruno Delille; Lisa Miller; Jacqueline Stefels; Philipp Assmy; Jeff Bowman; Kristina Brown; Giulia Castellani; Melissa Chierici; Odile Crabeck; Ellen Damm; Brent Else; Agneta Fransson; François Fripiat; Nicolas-Xavier Geilfus; Caroline Jacques; Elizabeth Jones; Hermanni Kaartokallio; Marie Kotovitch; Klaus Meiners;

    The Arctic sea-ice-scape is rapidly transforming. Increasing light penetration will initiate earlier seasonal primary production. This earlier growing season may be accompanied by an increase in ice algae and phytoplankton biomass, augmenting the emission of dimethylsulfide and capture of carbon dioxide. Secondary production may also increase on the shelves, although the loss of sea ice exacerbates

    更新日期:2020-10-28
  • Renewable energy targets may undermine their sustainability
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-26
    Scott Spillias; Peter Kareiva; Mary Ruckelshaus; Eve McDonald-Madden

    As the world’s economies seek to use new renewable energy developments to address climate change and reinvigorate economies post-COVID-19, avoiding a fixation on targets in decision-making will ensure positive social and environmental outcomes.

    更新日期:2020-10-28
  • Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-26
    Masahiro Watanabe; Jean-Louis Dufresne; Yu Kosaka; Thorsten Mauritsen; Hiroaki Tatebe

    The equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, known to be a pacemaker of global warming, has strengthened since the mid-twentieth century. However, the cause is controversial because a majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models suggest weakening of the zonal SST gradient from the past to the future. Reconciling this discrepancy is important for the

    更新日期:2020-10-28
  • Publisher Correction: Weakening Atlantic overturning circulation causes South Atlantic salinity pile-up
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-22
    Chenyu Zhu; Zhengyu Liu

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-10-28
  • Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-19
    A. K. Ettinger; C. J. Chamberlain; I. Morales-Castilla; D. M. Buonaiuto; D. F. B. Flynn; T. Savas; J. A. Samaha; E. M. Wolkovich

    Research on woody plant species highlights three major cues that shape spring phenological events: chilling, forcing and photoperiod. Increasing research on the phenological impacts of climate change has led to debate over whether chilling and/or photoperiod cues have slowed phenological responses to warming in recent years. Here we use a global meta-analysis of all published experiments to test the

    更新日期:2020-10-19
  • Changing carbon-to-nitrogen ratios of organic-matter export under ocean acidification
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-19
    Jan Taucher; Tim Boxhammer; Lennart T. Bach; Allanah J. Paul; Markus Schartau; Paul Stange; Ulf Riebesell

    Ocean acidification (OA) will affect marine biotas from the organism to the ecosystem level. Yet, the consequences for the biological carbon pump and thereby the oceanic sink for atmospheric CO2 are still unclear. Here we show that OA considerably alters the C/N ratio of organic-matter export (C/Nexport), a key factor determining efficiency of the biological pump. By synthesizing sediment-trap data

    更新日期:2020-10-19
  • Drivers of wildfire carbon emissions
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-12
    Rachel A. Loehman

    Increasing fire frequency and severity may shift boreal forests from carbon sinks to carbon sources and amplify climate warming. Analysis indicates that fuel characteristics are important drivers of wildfire carbon emissions across a broad range of North America’s boreal forest.

    更新日期:2020-10-12
  • Fuel availability not fire weather controls boreal wildfire severity and carbon emissions
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-12
    X. J. Walker; B. M. Rogers; S. Veraverbeke; J. F. Johnstone; J. L. Baltzer; K. Barrett; L. Bourgeau-Chavez; N. J. Day; W. J. de Groot; C. M. Dieleman; S. Goetz; E. Hoy; L. K. Jenkins; E. S. Kane; M.-A. Parisien; S. Potter; E. A. G. Schuur; M. Turetsky; E. Whitman; M. C. Mack

    Carbon (C) emissions from wildfires are a key terrestrial–atmosphere interaction that influences global atmospheric composition and climate. Positive feedbacks between climate warming and boreal wildfires are predicted based on top-down controls of fire weather and climate, but C emissions from boreal fires may also depend on bottom-up controls of fuel availability related to edaphic controls and overstory

    更新日期:2020-10-12
  • Plant agrodiversity to the rescue
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-05
    Samuel Pironon; Marybel Soto Gomez

    Agricultural systems are vulnerable to climate change, and global reservoirs of plant genetic diversity are proving to be a valuable means of crop adaptation. A study now shows that production of sweet potato is at risk from extreme heat events, but a few tolerant cultivars can still thrive and potentially provide climate resilience.

    更新日期:2020-10-05
  • A darker cryosphere in a warming world
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-05
    Biagio Di Mauro

    Dust and black carbon deposition in high-mountain Asia darkens snow and ice, increases sunlight absorption and causes melt — a reinforcing feedback. Now research shows the increasing importance of dust over black carbon at higher altitude, and the sensitivity of aerosol transport and delivery to Arctic sea-ice melt.

    更新日期:2020-10-05
  • Intraspecific diversity as a reservoir for heat-stress tolerance in sweet potato
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-05
    Bettina Heider; Quentin Struelens; Émile Faye; Carlos Flores; José E. Palacios; Raul Eyzaguirre; Stef de Haan; Olivier Dangles

    Stable and sufficient food supplies are increasingly threatened by climatic variability, in particular extreme heat events. Intraspecific crop diversity may be an important biological resource to both understand and maintain crop resilience to extreme conditions. Here using data from a mass field experiment screening for heat tolerance in sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas), we identify 132 heat-tolerant

    更新日期:2020-10-05
  • Dust dominates high-altitude snow darkening and melt over high-mountain Asia
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-05
    Chandan Sarangi; Yun Qian; Karl Rittger; L. Ruby Leung; Duli Chand; Kat J. Bormann; Thomas H. Painter

    Westerly driven, long-range transportation of dust particles in elevated aerosol layers (EALs) is a persistent phenomenon during spring and summer over the Indian subcontinent. During the snow accumulation season, EALs transport substantial amounts of dust to the snow-covered slopes of high-mountain Asia (HMA). Here we use multiple satellite-based estimates to demonstrate a robust physical association

    更新日期:2020-10-05
  • Right-wing ideology reduces the effects of education on climate change beliefs in more developed countries
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-10-05
    Gabriela Czarnek; Małgorzata Kossowska; Paulina Szwed

    The effects of education on people’s climate change beliefs vary as a function of political ideology: for those on the political left, education is related to pro-climate change beliefs, whereas for those on the political right, these effects are weak or negative. This phenomenon has been examined mainly in the US, where climate change has become a highly politicized issue; however, climate change

    更新日期:2020-10-05
  • Climate change disturbs wildlife microbiomes
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-28
    Obed Hernández-Gómez

    While large-scale climate-associated changes are becoming increasingly visible, our understanding of changes in the microbial world remains limited. Now a study takes advantage of a tropical microecosystem to disentangle the direct and indirect impacts of increased temperatures on the microbiomes of animals.

    更新日期:2020-09-28
  • Electrification of light-duty vehicle fleet alone will not meet mitigation targets
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-28
    Alexandre Milovanoff; I. Daniel Posen; Heather L. MacLean

    Climate change mitigation strategies are often technology-oriented, and electric vehicles (EVs) are a good example of something believed to be a silver bullet. Here we show that current US policies are insufficient to remain within a sectoral CO2 emission budget for light-duty vehicles, consistent with preventing more than 2 °C global warming, creating a mitigation gap of up to 19 GtCO2 (28% of the

    更新日期:2020-09-28
  • Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-28
    Guancheng Li; Lijing Cheng; Jiang Zhu; Kevin E. Trenberth; Michael E. Mann; John P. Abraham

    Seawater generally forms stratified layers with lighter waters near the surface and denser waters at greater depth. This stable configuration acts as a barrier to water mixing that impacts the efficiency of vertical exchanges of heat, carbon, oxygen and other constituents. Previous quantification of stratification change has been limited to simple differencing of surface and 200-m depth changes and

    更新日期:2020-09-28
  • Fine-scale tundra vegetation patterns are strongly related to winter thermal conditions
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-28
    Pekka Niittynen; Risto K. Heikkinen; Juha Aalto; Antoine Guisan; Julia Kemppinen; Miska Luoto

    Harsh winters are a characteristic element of Arctic ecosystems, yet the importance of winter conditions for Arctic plant communities is still underrepresented in climate change impact studies. Here, we use fine-scale microclimate data with plot-scale records of vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes from three Arctic areas, and show that topographically heterogeneous tundra holds marked spatial variation

    更新日期:2020-09-28
  • Warming drives ecological community changes linked to host-associated microbiome dysbiosis
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-28
    Sasha E. Greenspan; Gustavo H. Migliorini; Mariana L. Lyra; Mariana R. Pontes; Tamilie Carvalho; Luisa P. Ribeiro; Diego Moura-Campos; Célio F. B. Haddad; Luís Felipe Toledo; Gustavo Q. Romero; C. Guilherme Becker

    Anthropogenic climate warming affects many biological systems, ranging in scale from microbiomes to biomes. In many animals, warming-related fitness depression appears more closely linked to changes in ecological community interactions than to direct thermal stress. This biotic community framework is commonly applied to warming studies at the scale of ecosystems but is rarely applied at the scale of

    更新日期:2020-09-28
  • Divergent forest sensitivity to repeated extreme droughts
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-28
    William R. L. Anderegg; Anna T. Trugman; Grayson Badgley; Alexandra G. Konings; John Shaw

    Climate change-driven increases in drought frequency and severity could compromise forest ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink1,2,3. While the impacts of single droughts on forests have been widely studied4,5,6, understanding whether forests acclimate to or become more vulnerable to sequential droughts remains largely unknown and is crucial for predicting future forest health. We combine cross-biome

    更新日期:2020-09-28
  • Winter in a warming Arctic
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-28
    Anne D. Bjorkman; Elise C. Gallois

    Winter conditions have typically been downplayed or oversimplified in past estimations of terrestrial Arctic vegetation shifts in relation to climate change. A study now demonstrates the importance of fine-scale variation in winter temperature in explaining the composition and diversity of Arctic plant communities.

    更新日期:2020-09-28
  • Documenting climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-25
    Alyssa Findlay

    The impacts of climate change on people and societies are varied and nuanced, making it difficult to encapsulate in an image. Photographs of people can, however, create an emotional connection to what may otherwise be viewed as a natural problem.

    更新日期:2020-09-25
  • Phytoplankton dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-25
    Mathieu Ardyna; Kevin Robert Arrigo

    Changes in the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere and Ocean are drastically altering the dynamics of phytoplankton, the base of marine ecosystems. This Review addresses four major complementary questions of ongoing Arctic Ocean changes and associated impacts on phytoplankton productivity, phenology and assemblage composition. We highlight trends in primary production over the last two decades while considering

    更新日期:2020-09-25
  • Publisher Correction: A recent decline in North Atlantic subtropical mode water formation
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-22
    Samuel W. Stevens; Rodney J. Johnson; Guillaume Maze; Nicholas R. Bates

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-09-22
  • A preference for constant costs
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-21
    Christopher Warshaw

    Raising the cost of carbon is critical for effective climate policy, but is politically challenging because the public are averse to costs. Conventional wisdom suggests this could be addressed by giving the public time to adjust by gradually increasing costs. However, new research shows that the public actually prefers a constant cost curve.

    更新日期:2020-09-21
  • Constant carbon pricing increases support for climate action compared to ramping up costs over time
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-21
    Michael M. Bechtel; Kenneth F. Scheve; Elisabeth van Lieshout

    The introduction of policies that increase the price of carbon is central to limiting the adverse effects of global warming. Conventional wisdom holds that, of the possible cost paths, gradually raising costs relating to climate action will receive the most public support. Here, we explore mass support for dynamic cost paths in four major economies (France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United

    更新日期:2020-09-21
  • Climate velocity in inland standing waters
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-21
    R. Iestyn Woolway; Stephen C. Maberly

    Inland standing waters are particularly vulnerable to increasing water temperature. Here, using a high-resolution numerical model, we find that the velocity of climate change in the surface of inland standing waters globally was 3.5 ± 2.3 km per decade from 1861 to 2005, which is similar to, or lower than, rates of active dispersal of some motile species. However, from 2006 to 2099, the velocity of

    更新日期:2020-09-21
  • Addressing power imbalances in co-production
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Katharine Vincent; Suzanne Carter; Anna Steynor; Emma Visman; Katinka Lund Wågsæther

    Co-production is an increasingly popular approach to knowledge generation encouraged by donors and research funders. However, power dynamics between institutions in the Global North and South can, if not adequately managed, impede the effectiveness of co-production and pose risks for long-term sustainability.

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • Weakening Atlantic overturning circulation causes South Atlantic salinity pile-up
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Chenyu Zhu; Zhengyu Liu

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an active component of the Earth’s climate system1 and its response to global warming is of critical importance to society. Climate models have shown an AMOC slowdown under anthropogenic warming since the industrial revolution2,3,4, but this slowdown has been difficult to detect in the short observational record5,6,7,8,9,10 because of substantial

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • Climate change increases predation risk for a keystone species of the boreal forest
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Michael J. L. Peers; Yasmine N. Majchrzak; Allyson K. Menzies; Emily K. Studd; Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau; Rudy Boonstra; Murray Humphries; Thomas S. Jung; Alice J. Kenney; Charles J. Krebs; Dennis L. Murray; Stan Boutin

    Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) form a keystone predator–prey cycle that has large impacts on the North American boreal forest vertebrate community. Snowshoe hares and lynx are both well-suited for snowy winters, but climate change-associated shifts in snow conditions could lower hare survival and alter cyclic dynamics. Using detailed monitoring of snowshoe hare

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Roman Hoffmann; Anna Dimitrova; Raya Muttarak; Jesus Crespo Cuaresma; Jonas Peisker

    The impact of climate change on migration has gained both academic and public interest in recent years. Here we employ a meta-analysis approach to synthesize the evidence from 30 country-level studies that estimate the effect of slow- and rapid-onset events on migration worldwide. Most studies find that environmental hazards affect migration, although with contextual variation. Migration is primarily

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-14
    Laura Landrum; Marika M. Holland

    The Arctic is rapidly warming and experiencing tremendous changes in sea ice, ocean and terrestrial regions. Lack of long-term scientific observations makes it difficult to assess whether Arctic changes statistically represent a ‘new Arctic’ climate. Here we use five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 class Earth system model large ensembles to show how the Arctic is transitioning from a dominantly

    更新日期:2020-09-14
  • Publisher Correction: Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-10
    K. J. Feeley; C. Bravo-Avila; B. Fadrique; T. M. Perez; D. Zuleta

    An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

    更新日期:2020-09-10
  • Wrong-way migrations of benthic species driven by ocean warming and larval transport
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-07
    Heidi L. Fuchs; Robert J. Chant; Elias J. Hunter; Enrique N. Curchitser; Gregory P. Gerbi; Emily Y. Chen

    Ocean warming has predictably driven some marine species to migrate polewards or to deeper water, matching rates of environmental temperature change (climate velocity) to remain at tolerable temperatures. Most species conforming to expectations are fish and other strong swimmers that can respond to temperature change by migrating as adults. On the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf, however, many

    更新日期:2020-09-08
  • Embodied carbon emissions in the supply chains of multinational enterprises
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-09-07
    Zengkai Zhang; Dabo Guan; Ran Wang; Jing Meng; Heran Zheng; Kunfu Zhu; Huibin Du

    Enterprises are at the forefront of climate actions and multinational enterprises (MNEs) engage in foreign direct investment, allowing them substantial influence over the entire supply chain. Yet emissions embodied in the international supply chains of MNEs are poorly known. Here we trace the carbon footprints of foreign affiliates of MNEs and show that the gross volume of global carbon transfer through

    更新日期:2020-09-08
  • Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-31
    Thomas Slater; Anna E. Hogg; Ruth Mottram

    Observed ice-sheet losses track the upper range of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report sea-level predictions, recently driven by ice dynamics in Antarctica and surface melting in Greenland. Ice-sheet models must account for short-term variability in the atmosphere, oceans and climate to accurately predict sea-level rise.

    更新日期:2020-08-31
  • Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-31
    Dan H. Shugar; Aaron Burr; Umesh K. Haritashya; Jeffrey S. Kargel; C. Scott Watson; Maureen C. Kennedy; Alexandre R. Bevington; Richard A. Betts; Stephan Harrison; Katherine Strattman

    Glacial lakes are rapidly growing in response to climate change and glacier retreat. The role of these lakes as terrestrial storage for glacial meltwater is currently unknown and not accounted for in global sea level assessments. Here, we map glacier lakes around the world using 254,795 satellite images and use scaling relations to estimate that global glacier lake volume increased by around 48%, to

    更新日期:2020-08-31
  • Arctic sea-ice loss intensifies aerosol transport to the Tibetan Plateau
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-31
    Fei Li; Xin Wan; Huijun Wang; Yvan Joseph Orsolini; Zhiyuan Cong; Yongqi Gao; Shichang Kang

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has recently been polluted by anthropogenic emissions transported from South Asia, but the mechanisms conducive to this aerosol delivery are poorly understood. Here we show that winter loss of Arctic sea ice over the subpolar North Atlantic boosts aerosol transport toward the TP in April, when the aerosol loading is at its climatological maximum and preceding the Indian summer

    更新日期:2020-08-31
  • Fuelling transport
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-27

    In this interconnected world, many of us would regularly jump on a plane, or train, for a weekend away, or into a car to pop to the shops or to visit family and friends. But the way we travel, day-to-day and on longer trips, will need to change if mitigation targets, including net-zero aspirations, are to be met.

    更新日期:2020-08-27
  • The hydrogen solution?
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-27
    Sonja van Renssen

    A new star has exploded back onto the climate scene: hydrogen. It offers possibilities to move away from fossil fuels, but it brings its own challenges.

    更新日期:2020-08-27
  • Resilience in the developing world benefits everyone
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-27
    Tim Palmer

    We need a modern-day Marshall Plan to build climate resilience in the developing world. It is doable if, for each dollar spent reaching net zero, we spend an additional 25 cents on building resilience.

    更新日期:2020-08-27
  • The privilege of longevity
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Gonçalo Ferraz

    Theory and observation suggest that populations of long-lived organisms fare worse than short-lived counterparts when submitted to increased mortality. Now, research shows that longevity affords the prospect of reducing mortality by breeding less under stress.

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Longer-lived tropical songbirds reduce breeding activity as they buffer impacts of drought
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Thomas E. Martin; James C. Mouton

    Droughts are expected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Population impacts of such harsh environmental events are theorized to vary with life history strategies among species. However, existing demographic models generally do not consider behavioural plasticity that may modify the impact of harsh events. Here we show that tropical songbirds in the New and Old Worlds reduced

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Responses of global waterbird populations to climate change vary with latitude
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Tatsuya Amano; Tamás Székely; Hannah S. Wauchope; Brody Sandel; Szabolcs Nagy; Taej Mundkur; Tom Langendoen; Daniel Blanco; Nicole L. Michel; William J. Sutherland

    Most research on climate change impacts on global biodiversity lacks the resolution to detect changes in species abundance and is limited to temperate ecosystems. This limits our understanding of global responses in species abundance—a determinant of extinction risk and ecosystem function and services—to climate change, including in the highly biodiverse tropics. We address this knowledge gap by quantifying

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO 2 mitigation in road transport
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Jonn Axsen; Patrick Plötz; Michael Wolinetz

    Transport CO2 emissions continue to grow globally despite advances in low-carbon technology and goal setting by numerous governments. In this Perspective, we summarize available evidence for the effectiveness of climate policies and policy mixes for road transport relative to 2030 and 2050 mitigation goals implied by the Paris Agreement. Current policy mixes in most countries are not nearly stringent

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Performance determinants show European cities are delivering on climate mitigation
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Angel Hsu; Jonas Tan; Yi Ming Ng; Wayne Toh; Regina Vanda; Nihit Goyal

    Cities are crucial climate change actors, developing largely voluntary action plans and emission reduction targets. There is limited evidence, however, of their impact through transnational climate initiatives and little empirical support linking mitigation strategies and emissions reductions. Here, we show that 60% of more than 1,000 EU Covenant of Mayors’ cities are on track to achieve their 2020

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • The climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    S. V. Hanssen; V. Daioglou; Z. J. N. Steinmann; J. C. Doelman; D. P. Van Vuuren; M. A. J. Huijbregts

    Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can act as a negative emission technology and is considered crucial in many climate change mitigation pathways that limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C; however, the negative emission potential of BECCS has not been rigorously assessed. Here we perform a global spatially explicit analysis of life-cycle GHG emissions for lignocellulosic crop-based BECCS

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-24
    Jay Fuhrman; Haewon McJeon; Pralit Patel; Scott C. Doney; William M. Shobe; Andres F. Clarens

    Scenarios for meeting ambitious climate targets rely on large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs), including direct air capture (DAC). However, the tradeoffs between food, water and energy created by deploying different NETs are unclear. Here we show that DAC could provide up to 3 GtCO2 yr−1 of negative emissions by 2035—equivalent to 7% of 2019 global CO2 emissions—based on

    更新日期:2020-08-24
  • Record Greenland mass loss
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-20
    Yara Mohajerani

    Gravity-based estimates of mass change have been extended by the recently launched GRACE Follow-On Satellites. The satellite record, combined with regional climate models, reveals that the Greenland Ice Sheet had lower mass loss in 2017–2018, only to return to a record-breaking mass loss in the summer of 2019.

    更新日期:2020-08-20
  • Rising groundwater and sea-level rise
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 20.893) Pub Date : 2020-08-17
    Christine May

    The response of coastal groundwater to sea-level rise is largely unknown. Groundwater modelling along the California coast — accounting for complex topography and its interaction with rivers, streams and tributaries — shows that the area at risk from rising groundwater tables extends beyond that inundated by sea-level rise alone.

    更新日期:2020-08-17
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