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  • Accelerating savanna degradation threatens the Maasai Mara socio-ecological system
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2020-01-15
    Wang Li; Robert Buitenwerf; Michael Munk; Irene Amoke; Peder Klith Bøcher; Jens-Christian Svenning

    Savanna megafauna have become scarce outside of protected areas in Africa, largely because of land conversion for farming (smallholders and agribusiness) and expansion of settlements and other infrastructure. Intensification also isolates protected areas, even affecting natural processes within reserve boundaries. Here, we used satellite imagery from the past 32 years in the iconic Maasai Mara ecosystem to assess the capacity of different land tenures to prevent degradation. We compare unprotected land with two types of conservation management: fully protected land without livestock (land sparing) and semi-protected community-based conservation – protected land with regulated livestock densities (land sharing). On unprotected land (61% of the area), we detected massive and accelerating degradation and fragmentation of natural vegetation, with large losses of woodland (62%) and grassland (56%), resulting in the expansion of bare ground. In contrast, directional change was minimal in both types of protected areas. Vegetation resistance to drought was lowest on unprotected land, intermediate under community-based conservation and highest under full protection. Our results show that the Mara ecosystem is under heavy pressure, but that conservation management counteracts negative trends. Importantly, semi-protected community-based land-sharing conservation offers clear, partial buffering against degradation.

    更新日期:2020-01-15
  • Characterising policy responses to complex socio-ecological problems: 60 fire management interventions in Indonesian peatlands
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-26
    Una Jefferson; Rachel Carmenta; Willy Daeli; Jacob Phelps

    Governance of complex socio-ecological problems such as climate change, deforestation, and chronic wildfires is becoming “messier”. Theory and case study evidence suggest that “messy” institutional characteristics like non- government involvement and multi-level decision-making can improve social and environmental outcomes. However, these characteristics still lack systematic documentation, and there have been few efforts to systematically characterize and compare the interventions associated with them. We examined 60 fire management interventions (FMI) undertaken between 1999 and 2016 in response to Indonesia’s disastrous peatland fires. We documented their institutional characteristics (i.e., lead sector, multi-level character) and compared their design across institutional types, focusing on design attributes associated with performance such as targeting to high-risk soil types, landholders, and time periods, and the use and design of incentives. We found gaps between scientific recommendations and practice when it came to intervention targeting. However, industry FMI were more likely to employ nuanced targeting among landholders. Government, industry, and civil society adopted differing intervention strategies, including notable differences in the design of incentives. These findings provide the groundwork for research comparing intervention outcomes between institutional types. They also highlight the need for further stock-taking to inform research in these areas.

    更新日期:2019-12-27
  • The decarbonisation divide: Contextualizing landscapes of low-carbon exploitation and toxicity in Africa
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-26
    Benjamin K. Sovacool; Andrew Hook; Mari Martiskainen; Andrea Brock; Bruno Turnheim

    Much academic research on low-carbon transitions focuses on the diffusion or use of innovations such as electric vehicles or solar panels, but overlooks or obscures downstream and upstream processes, such as mining or waste flows. Yet it is at these two extremes where emerging low-carbon transitions in mobility and electricity are effectively implicated in toxic pollution, biodiversity loss, exacerbation of gender inequality, exploitation of child labor, and the subjugation of ethnic minorities. We conceptualize these processes as part of an emerging “decarbonisation divide.” To illustrate this divide with clear insights for political ecology, sustainability transitions, and energy justice research, this study draws from extensive fieldwork examining cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the processing and recycling of electronic waste in Ghana. It utilizes original data from 34 semi-structured research interviews with experts and 69 community interviews with artisanal cobalt miners, e-waste scrapyard workers, and other stakeholders, as well as 50 site visits. These visits included 30 industrial and artisanal cobalt mines in the DRC, as well as associated infrastructure such as trading depots and processing centers, and 20 visits to the Agbogbloshie scrapyard and neighborhood alongside local waste collection sites, electrical repair shops, recycling centers, and community e-waste dumps in Ghana. The study proposes a concerted set of policy recommendations for how to better address issues of exploitation and toxicity, suggestions that go beyond the often-touted solutions of formalisation or financing. Ultimately, the study holds that we must all, as researchers, planners, and citizens, broaden the criteria and analytical parameters we use to evaluate the sustainability of low-carbon transitions.

    更新日期:2019-12-27
  • Co-producing science for sustainability: Can funding change knowledge use?
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-14
    James C. Arnott; Rachel J. Neuenfeldt; Maria Carmen Lemos

    There is widespread belief that meaningful interaction between scientists and practitioners, or co-production, increases use of scientific knowledge about sustainability and environmental change. Although funders are increasingly encouraging co-production, there have been few empirical studies assessing the outcomes of these efforts in shaping knowledge use. In this study, we systematically analyze research project reports (n = 120) and interview project participants (n = 40) funded by the U.S. National Estuarine Research Reserve System from 1998 to 2014 to support coastal management. Our analysis shows that escalating funding requirements for collaboration with users change research practice and strengthen connections between research outcomes and knowledge use. In consequence, a new model for science funding emerges, where sponsor, researcher, and user are more interactive with one another.

    更新日期:2019-12-26
  • Rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land management across the Global South
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-19
    Fanny Boudet; Graham K. MacDonald; Brian E. Robinson; Leah H. Samberg

    Research on how urbanization affects rural agriculture has typically focused on loss of farmland due to urban expansion. However, more distal pathways that could link urbanization to rural agriculture, including enhanced connectivity through rural-urban migration and market access, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess whether greater rural-urban connectivity is associated with changes in agricultural land management across the Global South. Such associations are complex, and thus difficult to measure at this scale. We therefore take a two-step approach to investigate these relationships. First, using a multivariate clustering approach, we define a series of rural-urban connectivity typologies from existing spatial data on land use, demographics, rural market access, and rural population change (as a proxy for outmigration). We examine the variation in key agricultural outcome variables (mean cereal crop yields, % of attainable yields met, and cropping frequency) within the typologies, which shows that greater overall connectivity (market access and population change) is associated with higher cereal yields, yield attainment, and cropping frequency. Second, building on these clustering results, we develop hypotheses about the relationship between rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land use intensity. We then use propensity score matching to test these hypotheses by comparing locations with similar sociodemographic and land use characteristics. When controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, agricultural land, and population density, rural locations with relatively high market access, negative population change, and greater built-up area have significantly higher mean nitrogen application rates, irrigated areas, and cereal yields across the Global South. Results vary by region, but greater rural-urban connectivity and urban extents are generally associated with higher overall agricultural inputs and yields, particularly in Asia. However, we find little support for a relationship between connectivity and either % attainable yields met or field size. Our findings stress the need to better understand the mechanisms that link urbanization processes and agricultural management at different spatiotemporal scales.

    更新日期:2019-12-26
  • Activating the legacy motive mitigates intergenerational discounting in the climate game
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-25
    Mark J. Hurlstone; Annabel Price; Susie Wang; Zoe Leviston; Iain Walker

    Climate change will have dangerous impacts on future generations. Accordingly, people in the present have an obligation to make sacrifices for the benefit of future others. However, research on temporal and social discounting shows that people are short-sighted and selfish—they prefer immediate over delayed benefits, and they prefer benefits for themselves over others. Discounting over long-term time horizons is known as intergenerational discounting, and is a major obstacle to climate action. Here, we examine whether persuasive messages that activate the legacy motive—the desire to build a positive legacy—can increase the willingness of current actors to make sacrifices for future generations. Using a climate change public goods game, we find that when the benefits of cooperation accrue to decision makers in the present, high levels of cooperation are sustained, whereas when the benefits accrue to future generations, intergenerational discounting makes cooperation elusive. Crucially, when the legacy motive is activated—by promoting death awareness, feelings of power asymmetry, and intergenerational reciprocity—intergenerational discounting is attenuated, and cooperation is restored. Our results suggest climate action can be fostered by framing climate change as an intergenerational dilemma, and by crafting persuasive messages that activate people’s drive to leave a positive legacy.

    更新日期:2019-12-26
  • Does socioeconomic status moderate the political divide on climate change? The roles of education, income, and individualism
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-25
    Matthew T. Ballew; Adam R. Pearson; Matthew H. Goldberg; Seth A. Rosenthal; Anthony Leiserowitz

    Previous research documents that U.S. conservatives, and conservative white males in particular, tend to dismiss the threat of climate change more than others in the U.S. public. Other research indicates that higher education and income can each exacerbate the dismissive tendencies of the political Right. Bridging these lines of research, the present study examines the extent to which higher education and/or income moderate the ideological divide and the “conservative white male effect” on several climate change opinions, and whether these effects are mediated by an individualistic worldview (e.g., valuing individual liberty and limited government). Using nationally representative survey data of U.S. adults from 2008 to 2017 (N = 20,024), we find that across all beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences examined, the ideological divide strengthens with both higher education and higher income. However, educational attainment plays a stronger role than income in polarizing the views of conservative white males. Further analyses support the hypothesis that differences in individualism partially explain the increased political polarization among more educated and higher-income adults, as well as greater dismissiveness among conservative white males relative to other demographic groups. These results highlight key moderators of opinion polarization, as well as ideological differences among conservatives, that are often overlooked in public discourse about climate change. Implications for climate change education and communication across demographic groups are considered.

    更新日期:2019-12-26
  • The operationalisation of sustainability: Sustainable aquaculture production as defined by certification schemes
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-24
    Tonje C. Osmundsen; Vilde S. Amundsen; Karen A. Alexander; Frank Asche; Jennifer Bailey; Bengt Finstad; Marit Schei Olsen; Klaudia Hernández; Hugo Salgado

    Sustainability certification has become an increasingly important feature in aquaculture production, leading to a multitude of schemes with various criteria. However, the large number of schemes and the complexity of the standards creates confusion with respect to which sustainability objectives are targeted. As a result, what is meant by ‘sustainability’ is unclear. In this paper, we examine the operationalisation of the concept from the vantage point of the certifying authorities, who devise standards and grant or withhold certification of compliance. We map the criteria of eight widely-used certification schemes using the four domains of the Wheel of Sustainability, a reference model designed to encompass a comprehensive understanding of sustainability. We show that, overall, the sustainability certifications have an overwhelming focus on environmental and governance indicators, and only display scattered attempts at addressing cultural and economic issues. The strong focus on governance indicators is, to a large degree, due to their role in implementing and legitimising the environmental indicators. The strong bias implies that these certification schemes predominantly focus on the environmental domain and do not address sustainability as a whole, nor do they complement each other. Sustainability is by definition and by necessity a comprehensive concept, but if the cultural and economic issues are to be addressed in aquaculture, the scope of certification schemes must be expanded. The Wheel of Sustainability can serve as a valid lexicon and asset to guide such efforts.

    更新日期:2019-12-26
  • Allocating planetary boundaries to large economies: Distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-05
    Paul L. Lucas, Harry C. Wilting, Andries F. Hof, Detlef P. van Vuuren

    The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework proposes global quantitative precautionary limits for human perturbation of nine critical Earth system processes. Together they define a global safe operating space for human development. Translating the global limits to the national level increases their policy relevance. Such translation essentially divides up the global safe operating space. What is considered fair distribution is a political decision and there is no globally agreed principle that can be applied. Here, we analyse the distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness. We scale the global limits of selected PBs to resource budgets for the EU, US, China and India, using three allocation approaches from the climate change literature. Furthermore, we compare the allocated budgets to 2010 environmental footprints of the four economies, to assess their performance with respect to the selected PBs. The allocation approaches are based on (1) current shares of global environmental pressure (‘grandfathering’); (2) ‘equal per capita’ shares, and (3) ‘ability to pay’ to reduce environmental pressure. The results show that the four economies are not living within the global safe operating space. Their 2010 environmental footprints are larger than the allocated budgets for all approaches and parameterisations analysed for the PBs for climate change and biogeochemical flows, and, except for India, also for the PB for biosphere integrity. Grandfathering was found to be most favourable for the EU and US for all PBs, and ability to pay as least favourable. For climate change and biogeochemical flows, ability to pay even resulted in negative resource budgets for the two economies. In contrast, for China and India, equal per capita allocation and ability to pay were most favourable. Results were sensitive to the parameterisation. Accounting for future population growth in the equal per capita approach benefits India, with lower budgets for the EU, US and China, while accounting for future economic growth in ability to pay benefits the EU and US, with lower budgets for China and India. Our results underline the need for all four economies to act, while hinting at diverging preferences for specific allocation approaches. The methodology and results may help countries to define policy targets in line with global ambitions, such as those defined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), accounting for differences in countries’ circumstances and capacities. Further attention is required for PB-specific allocation approaches and integration of biophysical and socioeconomic considerations in the allocation.

    更新日期:2019-12-05
  • Patterns of controversy and consensus in German, Canadian, and US online news on climate change
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-02
    Robin Tschötschel, Andreas Schuck, Anke Wonneberger
    更新日期:2019-12-02
  • Beneficial land use change: Strategic expansion of new biomass plantations can reduce environmental impacts from EU agriculture
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-02
    Oskar Englund, Pål Börjesson, Göran Berndes, Nicolae Scarlat, Jean-Francois Dallemand, Bruna Grizzetti, Ioannis Dimitriou, Blas Mola-Yudego, Fernando Fahl

    Society faces the double challenge of increasing biomass production to meet the future demands for food, materials and bioenergy, while addressing negative impacts of current (and future) land use. In the discourse, land use change (LUC) has often been considered as negative, referring to impacts of deforestation and expansion of biomass plantations. However, strategic establishment of suitable perennial production systems in agricultural landscapes can mitigate environmental impacts of current crop production, while providing biomass for the bioeconomy. Here, we explore the potential for such “beneficial LUC” in EU28. First, we map and quantify the degree of accumulated soil organic carbon losses, soil loss by wind and water erosion, nitrogen emissions to water, and recurring floods, in ∼81.000 individual landscapes in EU28. We then estimate the effectiveness in mitigating these impacts through establishment of perennial plants, in each landscape. The results indicate that there is a substantial potential for effective impact mitigation. Depending on criteria selection, 10–46% of the land used for annual crop production in EU28 is located in landscapes that could be considered priority areas for beneficial LUC. These areas are scattered all over Europe, but there are notable “hot-spots” where priority areas are concentrated, e.g., large parts of Denmark, western UK, The Po valley in Italy, and the Danube basin. While some policy developments support beneficial LUC, implementation could benefit from attempts to realize synergies between different Sustainable Development Goals, e.g., “Zero hunger”, “Clean water and sanitation”, “Affordable and Clean Energy”, “Climate Action”, and “Life on Land”.

    更新日期:2019-12-02
  • Understanding the psychological distance of climate change: The limitations of construal level theory and suggestions for alternative theoretical perspectives
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-12-02
    Adrian Brügger

    Many perceive climate change to be more relevant to distant places, future times, and other people than to the here and now and oneself. This perception has sparked interest in construal level theory (CLT) as a framework to understand how the public sees climate change, and how the subjective psychological distance at which people mentally represent objects affects their decisions and actions. Although at first CLT may appear to be the ideal lens through which to investigate psychological distance, I argue that applications of the theory in explaining and predicting climate change (in)action are limited. Researchers have sometimes used CLT in ways inconsistent with its original articulation; namely, (1) when claiming that psychological distant events are less personally relevant than close events; (2) when treating psychological distance as a stable individual belief; and (3) when speculating about what happens when such beliefs change. This article identifies places where research diverges from the scope of CLT, and suggests alternative perspectives that are theoretically better suited to investigating some important and common questions. As a constructive plea for theoretically rigorous research projects and practical work, this article outlines directions for future research that should help advance the field's understanding of psychological distance in the context of climate change and make interventions more effective.

    更新日期:2019-12-02
  • The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-29
    Toon Haer, Trond G. Husby, W.J. Wouter Botzen, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

    With increasing flood risk due to climate change and socioeconomic trends, governments are under pressure to continue implementing flood protection measures, such as dikes, to reduce flood risk. However, research suggests that a sole focus on government-funded flood protection leads to an adverse increase in exposure as people and economic activities tend to concentrate in protected areas. Moreover, governmental flood protection can reduce the incentive for autonomous adaptation by local households, which paradoxically results in more severe consequences if an extreme flood event occurs. This phenomenon is often referred to as the ‘safe development paradox’ or ‘levee effect’ and is generally not accounted for in existing flood risk models used to assess developments in future flood risk under climate change. In this study we assess the impact of extreme flood events for the European Union using a large-scale agent-based model (ABM). We quantify how the safe development paradox affects (1) population growth and the increase in exposed property values, (2) the reduction in investments to flood-proof buildings as public protection increases, and (3) the increase in potential damage should a flood occur. For this analysis, we apply an ABM that integrates the dynamic behaviour of governments and residents into a large-scale flood risk assessment framework, in which we include estimates of changing population growth. We find that the impact of extreme flood events increases considerably when governments provide high protection levels, especially in large metropolitan areas. Moreover, we demonstrate how policy that stimulates the flood-proofing of buildings can largely counteract the effects of the safe development paradox.

    更新日期:2019-11-30
  • Should I stay or should I go? Factors in household decisions for or against relocation from a flood risk area
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-29
    Sebastian Seebauer, Claudia Winkler

    Planned relocation may permanently reduce exposure to natural hazards; however, residents in designated relocation zones are confronted with a broad array of challenges and face profound changes in their everyday lives. The present study empirically illustrates how economic, emotional, risk and social dimensions underpin household decisions to accept or decline a home buyout offer in a voluntary relocation program in the Eferding Basin, Austria. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 79 households living in the relocation zone, transcribed and subjected to qualitative content analysis. Risk appraisal and financial feasibility of moving to a new home function as entry points to the decision process. Risk perception is strongly influenced by biographical experiences, traumatic memories, and personal resources to cope with a flood event. Economic reasons are judged in the light of the children's future prospects. Fear and uncertainty about future floods as well as a personal bond to the place are critical emotional factors. By contrast, social relationships play a marginal role because those who leave tend to resettle close-by, and because solitude and autonomy are valued higher than neighborhood networks. Status as a long-term resident, newcomer or elderly person shifts the importance of specific factors, for instance, self-efficacy beliefs or intergenerational considerations. In order to facilitate relocation program implementation, compensation payments should be complemented by communication efforts addressing the emotional and risk dimensions. Communication activities should address those who leave as well as to those who stay and should be tailored to individual needs and resources of residents.

    更新日期:2019-11-30
  • Global-scale remote sensing of mine areas and analysis of factors explaining their extent
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-15
    Tim T. Werner, Gavin M. Mudd, Aafke M. Schipper, Mark A.J. Huijbregts, Lakshay Taneja, Stephen A. Northey

    Mines are composed of features like open cut pits, water storage ponds, milling infrastructure, waste rock dumps, and tailings storage facilities that are often associated with impacts to surrounding areas. The size and location of mine features can be determined from satellite imagery, but to date a systematic analysis of these features across commodities and countries has not been conducted. We created detailed maps of 295 mines producing copper, gold, silver, platinum group elements, molybdenum, lead-zinc, nickel, uranium or diamonds, representing the dominant share of global production of these commodities. The mapping entailed the delineation and classification of 3,736 open pits, waste rock dumps, water ponds, tailings storage facilities, heap leach pads, milling infrastructure and other features, totalling ~3,633 km2. Collectively, our maps highlight that mine areas can be highly heterogeneous in composition and diverse in form, reflecting variations in underlying geology, commodities produced, topography and mining methods. Our study therefore emphasises that distinguishing between specific mine features in satellite imagery may foster more refined assessments of mine-related impacts. We also compiled detailed annual data on the operational characteristics of 129 mines to show via regression analysis that the sum area of a mine's features is mainly explained by its cumulative production volume (cross-validated R2 of 0.73). This suggests that the extent of future mine areas can be estimated with reasonable certainty based on expected total production volume. Our research may inform environmental impact assessments of new mining proposals, or provide land use data for life cycle analyses of mined products.

    更新日期:2019-11-15
  • Global social and environmental change drives the management and delivery of ecosystem services from urban gardens: A case study from Central Coast, California
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-12
    Brenda B. Lin, Monika H. Egerer

    Urban community gardens are vital green spaces threatened by global social and environmental change factors. Population growth has reduced the amount of space available in cities, and climate change challenges plant growth thresholds. Urban community gardens provide dynamic socio-ecological systems to study how such social and environmental change factors affect the management and delivery of ecosystem services. They provide spaces where urban citizens purposefully interact with nature and receive multiple benefits. In this paper, we synthesize the results of three years of research in a case study of urban community gardens across the Central Coast of California and present a framework showing how both social and environmental change factors at the regional scale affect the ecological make-up of urban community gardens, which in turn affect the ecosystem services coming from such systems. Our study reveals that global environmental change felt at the regional level (e.g., increased built environment, climate change) interact with social change and policy (e.g., population growth, urbanization, water use policy), thus affecting regulations over garden resources (e.g., water availability) and management decisions by gardeners (e.g., soil management, crop planting decisions). These management decisions at the plot-scale, determine the ecological complexity and quality of the gardens and affect the resulting ecosystem services that come from these systems, such as food provision for both humans and urban animals. A greater understanding of how environmental and social change factors drive the management processes of urban community gardens is necessary to design policy support systems that encourage the continued use and benefits arising from such green spaces. Policies that can support urban community gardens to maintain ecological complexity and increase biodiversity through active management of soil quality and plant diversity have the potential to increase social and environmental outcomes that feedback to the larger environmental and social system.

    更新日期:2019-11-13
  • Overlooked ocean strategies to address climate change
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-07
    Sarah R. Cooley, Brittany Bello, Daniel Bodansky, Anthony Mansell, Andreas Merkl, Nigel Purvis, Susan Ruffo, Gwynne Taraska, Anna Zivian, George H. Leonard

    The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC’s) Paris Agreement—which aims to limit climate change and increase global resilience to its effects—was a breakthrough in climate diplomacy, committing its Parties to develop and update national climate plans. Yet the Parties to the Agreement have largely overlooked the effect of climate change on ocean-based communities, economies, and ecosystems—as well as the role that the ocean can play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. Because the ocean is an integral part of the climate system, stronger inclusion of ocean issues is critical to achieving the Agreement’s goals. Here we discuss four ocean-climate linkages that suggest specific responses by Parties to the Agreement connected to 1) accelerating climate ambition, including via sustainable ocean-based mitigation strategies; 2) focusing on CO2 emissions to address ocean acidification; 3) better understanding ocean-based mitigation; and 4) pursuing ocean-based adaptation. These linkages offer a more complete perspective on the reasons strong climate action is necessary and inform a systematic approach for addressing ocean issues under the Agreement to strengthen climate mitigation and adaptation.

    更新日期:2019-11-07
  • Impacts of land use intensification on human wellbeing: Evidence from rural Mozambique
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-06
    Harriet Elizabeth Smith, Casey M. Ryan, Frank Vollmer, Emily Woollen, Aidan Keane, Janet A. Fisher, Sophia Baumert, Isla M. Grundy, Mariana Carvalho, Sá N. Lisboa, Ana C. Luz, Pedro Zorrilla-Miras, Genevieve Patenaude, Natasha Ribeiro, Luis Artur, Mansour Mahamane

    Intensifying land use is often seen as a corollary of improving rural livelihoods in developing countries. However, land use intensification (LUI) frequently has unintended impacts on ecosystem services (ES), which may undermine the livelihoods of the same people who could benefit from intensification. Poorer households are disproportionately dependent on ES, so inequalities may also rise. A disaggregated analysis of LUI is thus fundamental to better understand how LUI can progress in an equitable manner. Using a suite of multi-scale, multidisciplinary social-ecological methods and operationalising multidimensional concepts of land use intensity and wellbeing, we examine three case studies in rural Mozambique. Drawing on interviews, focus group discussions, 1576 household surveys and geospatial data from 27 Mozambican villages, we assess how wellbeing and inequality change with three common LUI pathways: transitions to smallholder commercial crop production, charcoal production, and subsistence expansion. Wellbeing improved with intensification of smallholder commercial and subsistence agriculture, inequality did not change. Unsustainable intensification of charcoal production showed no overall effect on either wellbeing or inequality. Improvements in wellbeing amongst the poorest households were only found with intensification of commercial crop production, where villages had better access to markets. Our findings suggest that socioeconomic benefits from agricultural intensification and expansion may overcome localised environmental trade-offs, at least in the short term. However, unsustainable charcoal resource management and limited productive investment opportunities for rural households resulted in both reduced market access and limited wellbeing improvements. Sustainable and inclusive markets are therefore crucial developments alongside LUI to sustain wellbeing improvements for all households, to ensure that no one is left behind.

    更新日期:2019-11-07
  • The forest transformation: Planted tree cover and regional dynamics of tree gains and losses
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-06
    Sean Sloan, Patrick Meyfroidt, Thomas K. Rudel, Frans Bongers, Robin Chazdon

    Extensions of forest-transition theory to the tropics often depict sustained expansions of planted tree cover and corresponding long-term net gains in total tree cover. To explore the patterns and implications of continued tropical planted tree-cover expansion, we profiled sequences of tree-cover change over 1990–2010 according to Landsat imagery for recently observed (ca. 2014) planted tree-cover areas in 11 tropical countries. Alternative patterns of change emerged from these analyses. Termed the ‘reforestation treadmill’ and ‘forest transformation’ narratives, planted tree-cover change featured relatively ephemeral planted covers, modest net gains, and similar tree-cover change dynamics compared to nearby agricultural-forest mosaics. Planted areas were characterised not by unambiguous reforestation but rather combinations of tree-cover losses and gains, with losses typically being more prominent. Contemporary gains and losses during 5–10-year periods regularly distinguished planted areas from non-planted areas, with losses being 1.5–2.3 times more common than gains. Planted areas were only moderately distinguishable from non-planted areas overall with respect to tree-cover change dynamics. Relationships between tree-cover change and the export orientations of planted tree/tree-crop commodities were also examined. Greater export orientations did not significantly associate with tree-cover loss or larger planted patches, with partial exceptions for Southeast Asia. Regional disparities in planted tree-cover dynamics were apparent. In Southeast Asia, dominated by Indonesia, tree-cover declines in planted areas since 1990 were relatively pronounced (20% of planted areas), particularly with respect to progressive transitions from tree cover to cleared lands. Planted areas there were generally indistinguishable from nearby non-planted areas with respect to historical tree-cover change dynamics. In contrast, in South America, dominated by Brazil, tree-cover increases in planted areas since 1990 were more appreciable (at least 14% of planted areas), with most being progressive, stable, ‘net’ increases (10% of planted areas) and the remainder being dynamic increases entailing short-term losses since 1990 (4% of planted areas). Total tree-cover increases within South American planted areas were equal to or greater than total decreases since 1990. These patterns suggest a forest-transformation narrative in which major planted-area expansion occurs alongside minor net tree-cover change. This narrative appears particularly well suited to Southeast Asia, where planted areas are extensive and expansive but where net tree cover gains are tenuous, reflecting political-economic shifts in forest management and the devaluation of extensive, degraded natural forests.

    更新日期:2019-11-06
  • Personal harm and support for climate change mitigation policies: Evidence from 10 U.S. communities impacted by extreme weather
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-05
    Chad Zanocco, Hilary Boudet, Roberta Nilson, June Flora

    A growing body of research examines the role of extreme weather experience—as one of the most personal, visceral (and increasingly frequent and severe) impacts of climate change—in shaping views on climate change. A remaining question is whether the experience of an extreme weather event increases climate change concern via experiential learning or reinforces existing views via motivated reasoning. Building on this work, we explore the relationship between personal experience and climate change policy preferences using surveys in 10 communities that experienced extreme weather events (3 tornadoes, 3 floods, 2 wildfires, 1 hurricane and 1 landslide). We find that self-reported personal harm aligns with objective measures of event impacts and that personal harm (i.e., experience) is associated with higher levels of policy support. However, we do not find that objective measures of event impacts are related to policy support. Though political ideology (i.e., motivated reasoning) dominates our model of policy support in predictable ways, personal harm moderates this relationship suggesting that conservatives reporting higher levels of personal harm from the event are, on average, more likely to express support for climate policy than those reporting lower levels of harm. We postulate that while extreme weather events may serve as teachable moments on climate change, their lessons may only reach conservatives who feel personally harmed, even in the communities most affected.

    更新日期:2019-11-06
  • Forest conversion by the indigenous Kalasha of Pakistan: A household level analysis of socioeconomic drivers
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-04
    Alam Zeb, Glen W. Armstrong, Andreas Hamann

    Indigenous groups in many parts of the world are often forest dependent societies, and thereby may also play a disproportionate role in protecting and managing threatened forest resources. Taking the Kalasha indigenous group of Pakistan as a test case, this study contributes a socio-economic analysis at the household level aimed at understanding factors that influence forest clearing decisions. The findings of the study may help to develop general policies that facilitate sustainable resource for indigenous and other marginalized forest-dependent communities. The analysis was based on a contrast of 74 households at the forest margin that cleared nearby forested land versus 49 households that did not clear. Survey results indicated that the prime motivation for conversion of forests was expansion for cropland (77%), livestock grazing (18%), and orchards (5%). We found that families with more members and fewer physical assets were more likely to clear forested land for agricultural expansion. Families with more members employed off-farm, and members of Joint Forest Management Committees were less likely to be involved in forest clearing. For poor households, fuel wood constituted the largest part of their total income and for households with off-farm income the smallest. Social factors, such as education, ethnicity, and forest ownership were not significantly associated with clearing of forests. We conclude that programs focusing on off-farm income generation opportunities targeted towards the poorest households would be the most effective policy intervention for lowering deforestation and forest conversion.

    更新日期:2019-11-04
  • Environmental associated emotional distress and the dangers of climate change for pastoralist mental health
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-11-02
    Sarah Cooper, Paul Hutchings, John Butterworth, Solome Joseph, Abinet Kebede, Alison Parker, Bethel Terefe, Barbara Van Koppen

    Pastoralists in the Horn of Africa are among the most vulnerable populations to climate change yet little is known about how environmental change shapes their wellbeing and mental health. This paper presents a formative study into the relations between emotion, wellbeing and water security among pastoralist communities in Afar, Ethiopia. It uses focus group and interview data to demonstrate the close relationship between environmental conditions and emotional wellbeing, and shows how current water insecurity leads to extreme worry and fatigue among the studied population, especially in the dry season. In the context of difficulties of translating mental health clinical classifications and diagnostic tools in cross-cultural settings, the paper argues the inductive study of emotion may be a useful approach for studying environmental determined wellbeing outcomes among marginal populations in the light of understanding climate change impacts.

    更新日期:2019-11-04
  • Co-benefits, contradictions, and multi-level governance of low-carbon experimentation: Leveraging solar energy for sustainable development in China
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-10-29
    Kevin Lo, Vanesa Castán Broto

    Experimentation has emerged as an important strategy of climate governance, and China, with a distinctive experiment-based policy process, is a leading example of a state-led and coordinated approach to low-carbon experimentation. Through a case study of the photovoltaics poverty alleviation (PVPA) initiative—an ambitious and experimental programme that explores the synergy between renewable energy and sustainable development by using photovoltaics to generate income for impoverished households and communities—this paper critically examines this top-down mode of experimentation from a multi-level perspective based on Heilmann's experimentation under hierarchy framework. Drawing from empirical evidence collected over two years from a PVPA pilot, we show that China's multi-level approach to experimentation requires dynamic mechanisms that enable not only the adaptation of national-level models to specific locations but also the incorporation of local implementation lessons in national policymaking. The resulting experimental governance thus extends from a combination of top-down mechanisms of control, local responses, and the broader contradictions that emerge from their interactions.

    更新日期:2019-10-29
  • Reframing the sustainable seafood narrative
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-10-26
    Michael F. Tlusty, Peter Tyedmers, Megan Bailey, Friederike Ziegler, Patrik J.G. Henriksson, Christophe Béné, Simon Bush, Richard Newton, Frank Asche, David C. Little, Max Troell, Malin Jonell

    The dominant sustainable seafood narrative is one where developed world markets catalyze practice improvements by fisheries and aquaculture producers that enhance ocean health. The narrow framing of seafood sustainability in terms of aquaculture or fisheries management and ocean health has contributed to the omission of these important food production systems from the discussion on global food system sustainability. This omission is problematic. Seafood makes critical contributions to food and nutrition security, particularly in low income countries, and is often a more sustainable and nutrient rich source of animal sourced-food than terrestrial meat production. We argue that to maximize the positive contributions that seafood can make to sustainable food systems, the conventional narratives that prioritize seafood's role in promoting ‘ocean health’ need to be reframed and cover a broader set of environmental and social dimensions of sustainability. The focus of the narrative also needs to move from a producer-centric to a ‘whole chain’ perspective that includes greater inclusion of the later stages with a focus on food waste, by-product utilization and consumption. Moreover, seafood should not be treated as a single aggregated item in sustainability assessments. Rather, it should be recognized as a highly diverse set of foods, with variable environmental impacts, edible yield rates and nutritional profiles. Clarifying discussions around seafood will help to deepen the integration of fisheries and aquaculture into the global agenda on sustainable food production, trade and consumption, and assist governments, private sector actors, NGOs and academics alike in identifying where improvements can be made.

    更新日期:2019-10-27
  • Political trust and the relationship between climate change beliefs and support for fossil fuel taxes: Evidence from a survey of 23 European countries
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-10-26
    Malcolm Fairbrother, Ingemar Johansson Sevä, Joakim Kulin

    Taxes on fossil fuels could be a useful policy tool for governments seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, such taxes are politically challenging to introduce, as public opinion is usually hostile to them. Prior studies have found that attitudes toward carbon and other environmental taxes reflect not just people's beliefs and concerns about the problems these taxes address, but also their trust in their country's politicians and political system. Using multilevel models fitted to data collected in 2016 on 42,401 individuals in 23 European countries, we show for the first time that these two factors interact. Among Europeans who distrust their country's politicians, political parties, and parliament, or who live in countries with low levels of political trust, being aware and concerned about climate change is at most weakly associated with support for taxes on fossil fuels. Europeans with high political trust, on the other hand, tend to be much more supportive of fossil fuel taxes if they also believe in the reality and dangers of anthropogenic climate change. Cross-nationally, the nations whose populations are most supportive of higher taxes on fossil fuels are not those that are more aware and concerned about climate change; rather, they are those with the highest levels of political trust.

    更新日期:2019-10-27
  • Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-10-25
    Chiara Falco, Marzio Galeotti, Alessandro Olper

    Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, which is the source of income for most of the world's poor. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. In this paper we use data on 108 countries from 1960 to 2010 to analyze the relationship between weather variations, changes in agricultural productivity and international migration. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration from developing countries, an especially strong impact in poor countries but less so in middle income countries. These results are robust to the definitions of the poor country sample, and to several checks and alternative explanations suggested by the literature. Importantly, our results point to a causal interpretation of the agricultural channel to explain the climate change-migration nexus.

    更新日期:2019-10-25
  • Processes of elite power and low-carbon pathways: Experimentation, financialisation, and dispossession
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-10-20
    Benjamin K. Sovacool, Lucy Baker, Mari Martiskainen, Andrew Hook

    What is a low-carbon pathway? To many, it is a way of mitigating climate change. To others, it is about addressing market failure or capturing the co-benefits attached to low-carbon systems, such as jobs or improved health. To still others, it represents building adaptive capacity and resilience in the face of climate change. However, these interpretations can fail to acknowledge how pathways of low-carbon transitions can also become intertwined with processes and structures of inequality, exclusion and injustice. Using a critical lens that draws from a variety of disciplines, this article explores three ways through which responses to climate change can entrench, exacerbate or reconfigure the power of elites. As society attempts to create a low-carbon society, including for example via coastal protection efforts, disaster recovery, or climate change mitigation and renewable energy, these efforts intersect with at least three processes of elite power: experimentation, financialisation, and dispossession. Experimentation is when elites use the world as a laboratory to test or pilot low-carbon technologies or policy models, transferring risks yet not always sharing benefits. Financialisation refers to the expansion and proliferation of finance, capital, and financial markets in the global economy and many national economies, processes of which have recently extended to renewable energy. Dispossession is when elites use decarbonisation as a process through which to appropriate land, wealth, or other assets (and in the process make society more majoritarian and/or unequal). We explore these three themes using a variety of evidence across illustrative case studies, including hard and soft coastal protection measures (Bangladesh, Netherlands), climate risk insurance (Malawi), and renewable energy auctions and associated mechanisms of finance and investment (South Africa and Mexico).

    更新日期:2019-10-21
  • Avoiding or mitigating flooding: Bottom-up drivers of urban resilience to climate change in the USA
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-09-24
    Koen de Koning, Tatiana Filatova, Ariana Need, Okmyung Bin

    Coastal areas around the world are urbanizing rapidly, despite the threat of sea level rise and intensifying floods. Such development places an increasing number of people and capital at risk, which calls for public flood management as well as household level adaptation measures that reduce social vulnerability to flooding and climate change. This study explores several private adaptation responses to flood risk, that are driven by various behavioral triggers. We conduct a survey among households in hazard-prone areas in eight coastal states in the USA, of which, some have recently experienced major flooding. While numerous empirical studies have investigated household-level flood damage mitigation, little attention has been given to examining the decision to retreat from flood zones. We examine what behavioral motives drive the choices for flood damage mitigation and relocation separately among property buyers and sellers. Hence, we focus on the drivers that shape demand for future development in flood-prone cities. We find that households’ choices to retreat from or to avoid flood zones (1) are highly sensitive to information that provokes people's feelings of fear, and (2) rely on hazardous events to trigger a protective action, which ideally would take place well before these events occur. We highlight that major flooding may cause a potential risk of large-scale outmigration and demographic changes in flood-prone areas, putting more low-income households at risk. Therefore, coordinated policies that integrate bottom-up drivers of individual climate adaptation are needed to increase urban resilience to floods.

    更新日期:2019-09-25
  • Community forest management (CFM) in south-west Ethiopia: Maintaining forests, biodiversity and carbon stocks to support wild coffee conservation✰,✰✰,★,★★
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-09-24
    Adrian Wood, Motuma Tolera, Matthew Snell, Peter O'Hara, Afework Hailu

    Community forest management (CFM) is increasingly recognised as a potentially effective way of maintaining forests, especially in the Global South. Despite the growing adoption of this approach, the results have been mixed and there is a need to explore both the ways in which a wider range of benefits can be obtained and how CFM can be implemented more effectively. New forest legislation on community forest management in the Southern Region of Ethiopia in 2012, alongside the development of a highly devolved method of CFM, provided a natural experiment for testing the effectiveness of this method as a way of maintaining forest and also supporting biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. The specific circumstances and details of the methods applied also provided an opportunity to compare this approach against other experiences of CFM to assess factors seen to be influencing success. This study was undertaken in an area of montane forest in south-west Ethiopia, which includes some of the remaining stands of wild Coffea arabica, and so it also sought to create supportive conditions for the in situ conservation of the wild coffee. Analyses of this approach to CFM over the six years show that the loss of forest was reduced to 0.18% per annum in the CFM managed areas compared to 2.6% per annum in the non-CFM forest, while biodiversity, in terms of species diversity, richness and evenness of distribution, was maintained in the natural forest managed under CFM. Carbon storage also increased in the natural forest managed under CFM. While the long-term results will only be seen after several decades, the findings show that the use of a highly devolved form of CFM, responding to felt needs and building up a community of practice were some of the positive influences which helped in achieving multiple impacts towards sustainable forest management and wild coffee conservation.

    更新日期:2019-09-25
  • Reconciling global sustainability targets and local action for food production and climate change mitigation
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-09-19
    Juliana D.B. Gil, Vassilis Daioglou, Martin van Ittersum, Pytrik Reidsma, Jonathan C. Doelman, Corina E. van Middelaar, Detlef P. van Vuuren

    The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) imply country-led implementation. Yet, their achievement depends on sustainability targets compatible across different sectors and scales. Our study examines how the GHG emission intensity of agriculture (EIA) should evolve globally, regionally (Western Europe) and nationally (The Netherlands) under different socioeconomic pathways, so that two major aims of SDGs 2 and 13 (i.e. sufficient food production and climate change mitigation) are achieved simultaneously. Results show that, by 2050, relative to 2010 values, EIA should decrease at all three levels when measured on a product basis (GHG emissions per ton dry matter) and on a land basis (GHG emissions per ha). This indicates that, globally, agriculture should be intensified per unit area, while in Western Europe and even more so in the Netherlands additional emission reductions require increased production efficiency and lower production volumes. Projected reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emissions from enteric fermentation, manure management and fertilizer application in Dutch agriculture are much higher than what would be achieved through the extrapolation of current trends. Given the high costs of increasing production efficiency further, our analysis indicates the need for significantly more ambitious policy targets and systemic changes, including reduced consumption of animal-sourced food. Besides shedding light on the interaction between climate and agricultural strategies, our analysis illustrates the application of cross-scale thinking in the operationalization of the SDG agenda and underscores the need for concerted action amongst countries.

    更新日期:2019-09-20
  • Development and validation of a scale for measuring Multiple Motives toward Environmental Protection (MEPS)
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-09-11
    Anastasia Gkargkavouzi, George Halkos, Steriani Matsiori

    The current study aimed to establish and validate the Multi-motives toward Environmental Protection Scale (MEPS) to assess the various reasons that motivate individuals to engage in environmental behaviors. The scale development process included four steps: extensive literature review on environmental incentives, generation of an item pool, evaluation of the initial item pool by a panel of experts, and administration of the final item pool to a population sample to test the psychometric properties of the scale. We collected five distinct samples to: (1) explore the factorial structure of the MEPS using Exploratory Factor Analysis (Study 1); (2) confirm the proposed structure using Confirmatory Factor Analysis and assess reliability and validity (Studies 2 and 3); (3) examine test-retest reliability (Study 4); and (4) evaluate the MEPS in a representative sample (Study 5). The overall findings supported a seven-factor structure for the 28-item MEPS, revealed good scale reliability and provided evidence of construct validity in terms of discriminant and convergent validity. The scale exhibited criterion-related validity as suggested by the correlations observed between each MEPS subscale and other outcome variables. Results showed that configural, measurement and latent mean invariance were established across gender groups. The MEPS comprises a comprehensive instrument that makes a significant contribution to the motivation literature within the environmental conservation context. The proposed measure gives rise to future research in the environmental psychology field and may inform behavior change strategies by policymakers that wish to promote environmental behavior.

    更新日期:2019-09-11
  • Indigenous perceptions of climate anomalies in Malaysian Borneo
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-09-06
    T. van Gevelt, H. Abok, M.M. Bennett, S.D. Fam, F. George, N. Kulathuramaiyer, C.T. Low, T. Zaman

    Local perceptions of climate anomalies influence adaptation behaviour. Specifically, perceptions that are more accurate and homogenous at the community-level are more likely to facilitate the collective action required to adapt to the local effects of climate anomalies experienced by many indigenous communities. We combine primary data on perceptions of climate anomalies from 200 individuals in six Penan villages in Sarawak, Malaysia with instrumental climate data. We find that perceptions of climate anomalies vary substantially in terms of occurrence and magnitude, and do not generally correlate with instrumental climate data. We operationalise the Penan forest sign language (Oroo’) as a measure of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and find only weak evidence of a systematic statistical association with perceptions of climate anomalies among our sampled respondents. Our findings suggest caution in advancing adaptation strategies in indigenous communities that are predominantly premised on TEK. Instead, our findings suggest that in designing adaptation measures, indigenous communities may benefit by engaging in forums where community members and external stakeholders can come together, share their perceptions and observations of climate change, and reach a collective consensus on the community-level effects of climate change and pathways towards adaptation.

    更新日期:2019-09-07
  • Towards urban water sustainability: Analyzing management transitions in Miami, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-09-04
    Margaret Garcia, Elizabeth Koebele, Aaron Deslatte, Kathleen Ernst, Kimberly F. Manago, Galen Treuer

    As climate change challenges the sustainability of existing water supplies, many cities must transition toward more sustainable water management practices to meet demand. However, scholarly knowledge of the factors that drive such transitions is lacking, in part due to the dearth of comparative analyses in the existing transitions literature. This study seeks to identify common factors associated with transitions toward sustainability in urban water systems by comparing transitions in three cases: Miami, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. For each case, we develop a data-driven narrative that integrates case-specific contextual data with standardized, longitudinal metrics of exposures theorized to drive transition. We then compare transitions across cases, focusing on periods of accelerated change (PoACs), to decouple generic factors associated with transition from those unique to individual case contexts. From this, we develop four propositions about transitions toward sustainable urban water management. We find that concurrent exposure to water stress and heightened public attention increases the probability of a PoAC (1), while other factors commonly expected to drive transition (e.g. financial stress) are unrelated (2). Moreover, the timing of exposure alignment (3) and the relationship between exposures and transition (4) may vary according to elements of the system’s unique context, including the institutional and infrastructure design and hydro-climatic setting. These propositions, as well as the methodology used to derive them, provide a new model for future research on how cities respond to climate-driven water challenges.

    更新日期:2019-09-04
  • The global cropland footprint of Denmark's food supply 2000–2013
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-09-02
    Albert Kwame Osei-Owusu, Thomas Kastner, Henri de Ruiter, Marianne Thomsen, Dario Caro

    The global use of and pressure on land resources will continue to rise in tandem with the predicted rise in global population and food demand. Addressing unavoidable trade-offs between satisfying human needs and biodiversity conservation for future generations is of paramount importance when tackling the global environmental challenges of land use. Food consumption patterns are inextricably linked to land-use and land-use changes. The domestic supply and final use of food by humans and feed by animals within the borders of a country have environmental impacts overseas. Countries like Denmark, with considerably high livestock production, import “virtual” land needed to produce cereals and other fodder crops. Denmark's high meat and dairy consumption and trade levels make it a compelling case for this study. The overarching question is: how much land is required to support food and feed consumption in Denmark? This paper assesses the global cropland footprint of Danish food and feed supply from 2000 to 2013 using a consumption-based physical accounting approach. In addition to domestic croplands for local food and supply, we estimate the hectares of cropland displaced in other countries to satisfy Danish demand for food and feed in this period. Secondly, we calculate Denmark's global cropland requirements for the supply of specific livestock products, namely; pork, eggs, beef, milk, and mutton. Globally, animals provide a third of the protein in human diets and agricultural GDP. The total global cropland footprint of Danish food and feed supply decreased by 18% from 1568 kha in 2000 to 1282 kha in 2013 because of a reduction in the consumption of ruminant livestock products. A high share of this reduction can be attributed to increased local self-sufficiency in feed supply as opposed to rising food imports. The share of cropland used for feed in total cropland declined by 5% whereas the share of cropland used for food increased from 28% in 2000 to 32% by 2013. Our findings suggest that reducing domestic meat consumption coupled with local self-sufficiency policies for both food and feed supply could be a means of lowering ecological degradation in exporting countries.

    更新日期:2019-09-03
  • Collective action for water quality management in agriculture: The case of drinking water source protection in France
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-31
    Laurence Amblard

    Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture represents a major threat to the quality of water in the European Union (EU) context. As part of the implementation process of the EU Water Framework Directive in France, the cooperation between water suppliers and agricultural stakeholders has been recently promoted for limiting diffuse agricultural pollution at the water catchment level. Based on a conceptual framework combining transaction cost economics and the social-ecological system (SES) framework, this paper identifies the conditions under which such collective action is effective for the restoration/maintenance of water quality. The research relies on a cross-case comparison of cooperation in six drinking water catchments. A qualitative analysis of primary data collected at the national, water basin and local levels serves as a basis for the multi-case investigation. Variables related to the hydrogeological system, the stakeholders involved, the contracts governing cooperation and the economic and policy contexts are shown to interact in their influence on collective action. The results highlight the importance of the match between contract incentives and the characteristics of the local context and the potential complementarities between informational, regulatory and economic policy tools for enhancing the effectiveness of collective action for water pollution control.

    更新日期:2019-09-03
  • Tracing country commitment to Indigenous peoples in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-29
    Meghan M. Shea, Thomas F. Thornton

    Indigenous peoples (IP) and traditional knowledges have been marginalized in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since its inception, but recent efforts have attempted to better integrate Indigenous perspectives. This paper proposes an empirical method for tracking country representation of IP and traditional knowledges within the UNFCCC, using text analyses of national-determined contributions (NDCs) and official side events. Here we show that while some references to IP exist in NDCs, the language is often found in less substantive portions of the texts. Official side events on Indigenous topics are one-third as likely to have been sponsored by individual countries as events on other topics. Thus, centralized discourses around IP in the UNFCCC do not necessarily translate to individual country priorities and actions on climate change. While larger structural changes are necessary to include IP in the UNFCCC, understanding this insufficient country inclusion of Indigenous topics points to further avenues for increasing Indigenous representation in the UNFCCC.

    更新日期:2019-08-29
  • Priming critical thinking: Simple interventions limit the influence of fake news about climate change on Facebook
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-28
    Lauren Lutzke, Caitlin Drummond, Paul Slovic, Joseph Árvai

    Fake news about climate change refers to fabricated information that mimics the appearance of legitimate reporting but is intended to mislead consumers. In light of concerns about fake news regarding climate change and other topics, researchers and media providers have been searching for ways to limit its spread and influence. This study tested the effect of two simple interventions, both of which primed critical thinking, on individuals’ evaluation of the credibility of real and fake news about climate change on Facebook. Through an online experiment (n = 2,750 participants), participants either read a series of guidelines for evaluating news online, or read and then rated the importance of each guideline; a control group was not exposed to guidelines of any type. We found that participants exposed to both types of guidelines reported a reduced likelihood to trust, like, and share fake news about climate change on Facebook. Importantly, exposure to these guidelines did not diminish individuals’ likelihood to trust, like, or share legitimate climate news. The effect sizes for both types of intervention were small. However, because of the scale and speed at which social media operates, even a small reduction in users’ likelihood to trust, like, and share fake news could be meaningful and impactful.

    更新日期:2019-08-28
  • Droughts as a catalyst for water policy change. Analysis of Spain, Australia (MDB), and California
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-28
    Julio Berbel, Encarna Esteban

    Droughts are natural hazards characterized by a prolonged period of below-average precipitation. Water scarcity is defined as insufficient water resources to meet demands in a region. This paper examines three regions (Spain, California, and the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia) which share similar social and climatic characteristics and face severe water-scarcity problems. The frequency and persistence of droughts in these regions over the last few decades have triggered changes in water laws as well as in the behaviour of water users and managers. This paper compares the major water reforms in these regions and the achievements and failures of the various approaches implemented. This comparison shows how, despite the differences in institutions and governance regarding water allocation in the three regions, recent droughts have catalysed the creation of institutions and the implementation of sophisticated long-term measures to mitigate the impact of future droughts. A deeper understanding of the effectiveness of mechanisms and regulations is necessary to better manage droughts since the uncertain impacts of climate change will require responses of a more effective nature.

    更新日期:2019-08-28
  • Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-27
    Paul Hudson, W.J. Wouter Botzen, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

    Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.

    更新日期:2019-08-27
  • Sustainable groundwater management: How long and what will it take?
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-26
    J.C. Castilla-Rho, R. Rojas, M.S. Andersen, C. Holley, G. Mariethoz

    Groundwater depletion is arguably one of humanity's greatest sustainability challenges of the 21st century. With Sustainable Development Goals only a decade away, water authorities around the world are in the urgent need for concrete and targeted measures to ensure that communities adhere to groundwater management policies as rapidly and as effectively as possible. In this paper, we combine computational social science, groundwater modelling and empirical data from the World Values Survey to generate future ensembles of hydro-social trajectories under alternative courses of management and social action or inaction. Our simulations shed new light on the role that cultural values can play in shaping the societal trajectories and norms that emerge when resources are either allocated or not sufficiently allocated to monitor compliance, issue fines, engage community leaders, and deter rule-breakers. This study presents a new approach to explore and evaluate the capacity of existing and future management actions to steer groundwater systems towards sustainable trajectories, to forecast the celerity and timing of social transformations at the inter-decadal scale, and to help nations identify the most pertinent management options under institutional, political, social, and/or cultural constraints. The methods presented here are broadly applicable to support strategic decisions that rely on the monitoring, enforcement, and compliance of environmental regulations.

    更新日期:2019-08-27
  • Social cohesion and passive adaptation in relation to climate change and disease
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-26
    Sarah T. Cherng, Ivan Cangemi, James A. Trostle, Justin V. Remais, Joseph N.S. Eisenberg

    Climate change affects biophysical processes related to the transmission of many infectious diseases, with potentially adverse consequences for the health of communities. While our knowledge of biophysical associations between meteorological factors and disease is steadily improving, our understanding of the social processes that shape adaptation to environmental perturbations lags behind. Using computational modeling methods, we explore the ways in which social cohesion can affect adaptation of disease prevention strategies when communities are exposed to different environmental scenarios that influence transmission pathways for diseases such as diarrhea. We developed an agent-based model in which household agents can choose between two behavioral strategies that offer different levels of protection against environmentally mediated disease transmission. One behavioral strategy is initially set as more protective, leading households to adopt it widely, but its efficacy is sensitive to variable weather conditions and stressors such as floods or droughts that modify the disease transmission system. The efficacy of the second strategy is initially moderate relative to the first and is insensitive to environmental changes. We examined how social cohesion (defined as average number of household social network connections) influences health outcomes when households attempt to identify an optimal strategy by copying the behaviors of socially connected neighbors who seem to have adapted successfully in the past. Our simulation experiments suggest that high-cohesion communities are able to rapidly disseminate the initially optimal behavioral strategy compared to low-cohesion communities. This rapid and pervasive change, however, decreases behavioral diversity; i.e., once a high cohesion community settles on a strategy, most or all households adopt that behavior. Following environmental changes that reduce the efficacy of the initially optimal strategy, rendering it suboptimal relative to the alternative strategy, high-cohesion communities can fail to adapt. As a result, despite faring better early in the course of computational experiments, high-cohesion communities may ultimately experience worse outcomes. In the face of uncertainty in predicting future environmental stressors due to climate change, strategies to improve effective adaptation to optimal disease prevention strategies should balance between intervention efforts that promote protective behaviors based on current scientific understanding and the need to guard against the crystallization of inflexible norms. Developing generalizable models allows us to integrate a wide range of theories and multiple datasets pertaining to the relationship between social mechanisms and adaptation, which can provide further understanding of future climate change impacts. Models such as the one we present can generate hypotheses about the mechanisms that underlie the dynamics of adaptation events and suggest specific points of measurement to assess the impact of these mechanisms. They can be incorporated as modules within predictive simulations for specific socio-ecological contexts.

    更新日期:2019-08-27
  • Beyond total area protected: A new set of metrics to measure progress in building a robust protected area estate
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-26
    Carly N. Cook, Rebecca S. Valkan, Melodie A. McGeoch

    With protected areas identified as the primary tool to halt the loss of biodiversity, the Convention on Biological Diversity has set targets for protected area expansion. Increasingly, concerns are being raised that target-driven growth, where targets focus largely on quantity (total area protected) rather than quality, may fail to achieve their intended biodiversity outcomes. Therefore, it is important to assess whether growth in area protected is translating into a more robust system of protected areas that better safeguard biodiversity. In this study, we propose a set of seven indicators, drawing on the body of evidence for the elements of protected area design and management associated with better biodiversity outcomes. Many of the features of effective design and management interact with one another, making it essential to use a suite of indicators and consider progress relative to trends across all of these indicators. We implemented the proposed indicators for the Australian National Reserve System, which has undergone significant growth over the past two decades. Our findings demonstrate that relying on trends in total area protected can obscure negative trends in other important indicators which suggest many protected areas in Australia are under increasing pressure. Meanwhile, the level of resourcing for management has not kept pace with increases in total area protected and has certainly not scaled with changes in pressures on protected areas. It is important that the global conservation community strive for a more nuanced set of indicators for conservation progress to identify whether growth in area protected has, or has not, translated into a more robust and effective system of protected areas. Given that most of the indicators we propose can be populated with existing data, we believe this approach could be achievable for protected areas globally.

    更新日期:2019-08-26
  • Household dependence on solid cooking fuels in Peru: An analysis of environmental and socioeconomic conditions
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-21
    Elena V. McLean, Sharmistha Bagchi-Sen, John D. Atkinson, Alexandra Schindel

    Solid fuel use is linked with adverse effects on the environment and human health. Yet, solid fuels remain an important energy source for households in developing countries. Even when country-level dependence on solid fuels is modest, there is often significant variation in within-country patterns of solid fuel use. This study examines a range of environmental and socioeconomic conditions to understand the relationship between them and household energy use within a country. While our results are derived from a study of regional patterns of solid fuel dependence in Peru, the contribution of this study is broad: variables that we include in our models of households’ fuel choice decisions are likely to shape such decisions in most developing countries. Our findings indicate that environmental conditions, such as elevation and forest cover, are associated with solid fuel use. Socioeconomic factors, including urbanization, poverty and female literacy, are similarly important. In addition, we identify nuanced links between types of female employment and indigenous population, on the one hand, and solid fuel use, on the other.

    更新日期:2019-08-21
  • The whole systems energy injustice of four European low-carbon transitions
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-21
    Benjamin K. Sovacool, Andrew Hook, Mari Martiskainen, Lucy Baker

    The need for multi-scalar analysis of energy and low-carbon systems is becoming more apparent as a way to assess the holistic socioeconomic and environmental impacts of energy transitions across a variety of scales and lifecycle stages. This paper conducts a whole systems energy justice analysis of four European low-carbon transitions—nuclear power in France, smart meters in Great Britain, electric vehicles in Norway, and solar photovoltaic panels in Germany. It asks: in what ways may each of these transitions result in injustices that extend beyond communities and countries, i.e., across the whole system? It utilizes a mixed-methods research design based on 64 semi-structured research interviews with experts across all four transitions, five public focus groups, and the collection of 58 comments from twelve public internet forums to answer this question. Drawing inductively from these data, the paper identifies and analyzes 44 injustices spread across three spatial scales. Micro scale injustices concern immediate local impacts on family livelihood, community health and the environment. Meso scale injustices include national-scale issues such as rising prices for electricity and gas or unequal access to low-carbon technology. Macro scale injustices include global issues such as the extraction of minerals and metals and the circulation of waste flows. The paper then discusses these collective injustices in terms of their spatiality and temporality, before offering conclusions for energy and climate research and policy.

    更新日期:2019-08-21
  • Who governs here? Informal resource extraction, state enforcement, and conflict in Ghana
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-12
    McKenzie F. Johnson

    Over the past two decades, “illegal” natural resource extraction has become a significant driver of environmental change and social conflict across the Global South. In response, numerous Sub-Saharan African states have engaged in governance reforms that heed calls to securitize – or, establish and consolidate state control over – natural resources. In Ghana, securitization has served to entrench the informal economy as domestic producers, marginalized in the process of reform, continue to utilize non-state institutions to maintain access. While the Ghanaian state has branded “illegal” resource extraction a major environmental, social, and national security concern, it has responded to this threat unevenly; it has violently enforced its authority in some contexts but remained relatively indifferent in others. This article explores the phenomenon of selective enforcement to explain patterns of violence that have emerged between state and society in response to both securitization and informality. Drawing on a multimethod approach, I find that natural resource governance authority remains fragmented across resource contexts, and that the configuration of authority and interests on the ground shapes the extent of state intervention. I propose a natural resource typology that identifies when the state is most likely to enforce its authority, and the degree of violent conflict likely to result. Ultimately, I contend that domestic patterns of enforcement are shaped primarily by: 1) competition with local power holders over resource entitlements and 2) global conservation and extraction priorities. While specific to Ghana, this argument can provide important insights into the relationship between informal extraction, state enforcement, and social conflict in other Global South contexts.

    更新日期:2019-08-12
  • The role of global dietary transitions for safeguarding biodiversity
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-09
    Roslyn C. Henry, Peter Alexander, Sam Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Mark D.A. Rounsevell, Almut Arneth

    Diets lower in meat could reduce agricultural expansion and intensification thereby reducing biodiversity impacts. However, land use requirements, associated with alternate diets, in biodiverse regions across different taxa are not fully understood. We use a spatially explicit global food and land system model to address this gap. We quantify land-use change in locations important for biodiversity across taxa and find diets low in animal products reduce agricultural expansion and intensity in regions with high biodiversity. Reducing ruminant meat consumption alone however was not sufficient to reduce fertiliser and irrigation application in biodiverse locations. The results differed according to taxa, emphasising that land-use change effects on biodiversity will be taxon specific. The links shown between global meat consumption and agricultural expansion and intensification in the biodiverse regions of the world indicates the potential to help safeguard biodiverse natural ecosystems through dietary change.

    更新日期:2019-08-10
  • Country-specific dietary shifts to mitigate climate and water crises
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-07
    Brent F. Kim, Raychel E. Santo, Allysan P. Scatterday, Jillian P. Fry, Colleen M. Synk, Shannon R. Cebron, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Saskia de Pee, Martin W. Bloem, Roni A. Neff, Keeve E. Nachman

    Undernutrition, obesity, climate change, and freshwater depletion share food and agricultural systems as an underlying driver. Efforts to more closely align dietary patterns with sustainability and health goals could be better informed with data covering the spectrum of countries characterized by over- and undernutrition. Here, we model the greenhouse gas (GHG) and water footprints of nine increasingly plant-forward diets, aligned with criteria for a healthy diet, specific to 139 countries. Results varied widely by country due to differences in: nutritional adjustments, baseline consumption patterns from which modeled diets were derived, import patterns, and the GHG- and water-intensities of foods by country of origin. Relative to exclusively plant-based (vegan) diets, diets comprised of plant foods with modest amounts of low-food chain animals (i.e., forage fish, bivalve mollusks, insects) had comparably small GHG and water footprints. In 95 percent of countries, diets that only included animal products for one meal per day were less GHG-intensive than lacto-ovo vegetarian diets (in which terrestrial and aquatic meats were eliminated entirely) in part due to the GHG-intensity of dairy foods. The relatively optimal choices among modeled diets otherwise varied across countries, in part due to contributions from deforestation (e.g., for feed production and grazing lands) and highly freshwater-intensive forms of aquaculture. Globally, modest plant-forward shifts (e.g., to low red meat diets) were offset by modeled increases in protein and caloric intake among undernourished populations, resulting in net increases in GHG and water footprints. These and other findings highlight the importance of trade, culture, and nutrition in diet footprint analyses. The country-specific results presented here could provide nutritionally-viable pathways for high-meat consuming countries as well as transitioning countries that might otherwise adopt the Western dietary pattern.

    更新日期:2019-08-07
  • Is hope good for motivating collective action in the context of climate change? Differentiating hope’s emotion- and problem-focused coping functions
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-06
    Martijn van Zomeren, Inga L. Pauls, Smadar Cohen-Chen

    Climate change may be the most fundamental collective action problem of all time. To solve it through collective action, collective motivation is required. Yet, given the complexity and scale of the collective problem, it may be difficult for individuals to experience such motivation. Intriguingly, the experience of hope may increase collective motivation and action. We offer an integrative coping perspective on hope and collective action in the context of climate change. It explains how hope stimulates individuals’ collective motivation to act against climate change (serving a problem-focused coping function), or fails to do so (serving an emotion-focused coping function). Testing these competing hypotheses, we conducted three studies that experimentally manipulated a core antecedent of hope (i.e., the perceived possibility of change) among US participants (total N = 1020). Across the board, this manipulation increased individuals’ hope but not their collective motivation and action. Furthermore, collective motivation predicted collective action intentions across all three studies. Hoping thus seems to serve an emotion-focused coping function and hence may not increase the collective motivation required for collective action in the context of climate change.

    更新日期:2019-08-07
  • The discursive politics of ‘fracking’: Frames, storylines, and the anticipatory contestation of shale gas development in the United Kingdom
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-02
    Laurence Williams, Benjamin K. Sovacool

    How contested sources of energy such as shale gas are perceived in frontier countries considering their development is incredibly important to national and international climate policies. The UK shale development case is of particular interest currently as the Government attempts to position the UK as a pioneer of European, safe, sustainable shale gas development. We conduct a mixed-methods analysis of the UK policy debate on shale gas development involving 30 stakeholder interviews and 1557 political documents. This empirical focus extends the existing literature by identifying the use of frames in and through the institutions and practices of formal UK politics. We identify nine key frames and their associated storylines, analyse their use over time, and compare these findings with other national case studies. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given most UK Governments within our timeframe have supported shale development, pro-shale development frames dominate in the policy debate; however, we also find a high level of anti-shale development frame use, suggesting a deep and ongoing framing contest in national formal political sites. We find in particular a more prominent focus on land-use issues and impacts on the landscape than other UK studies or other national contexts. Conceptually, the study puts forward an integrative approach to the related concepts of frames and storylines, as well as arguments concerning the impotence of storylines in anticipatory political debate and the polyvalence of framing strategies. Questions about governance are raised by the general lack of consensus over the framing of shale development within formal political sites, let alone amongst the broader public; and by the lack of a coherent response from the Government to criticisms of its approach. Finally, we reflect on the apparent lack of evidence for Hajer’s ‘communicative miracle’ in our case, and speculate as to whether the lack of broad-based resonance of the ‘bridge’ storyline signals trouble for the positive-sum thinking of ecological modernisation.

    更新日期:2019-08-02
  • Insights from watershed simulations around the world: Watershed service-based restoration does not significantly enhance streamflow
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-08-01
    P. James Dennedy-Frank, Steven M. Gorelick

    Increased water yield and baseflow and decreased peak flow are common goals of watershed service programs. However, is the forest management often used in such programs likely to provide these beneficial watershed services? Many watershed service investments such as water funds typically change less than 10% of watershed land cover. We simulate the effects of 10% forest-cover change on water yield, low flow, and high flow in hydrologic models of 29 watersheds around the world. The forest-cover changes considered are: forest restoration from degraded natural lands or agriculture, forest conversion to agriculture, and forest conversion to urban cover. We do not consider grassland restoration by removal of alien tree species from riparian zones, which does increase water yield and low flow. Forest restoration from locally-predominant agricultural land resulted in median loss in annual water yield of 1.4%. Forest restoration reduced low flow and high flow by ∼3%. After forest restoration, low flow increased in ∼25% of cases while high flow and water yield declined in nearly all cases. Development of forest to agriculture or urban cover resulted in a 1–2% median increase in water yield, a 0.25–1% increase in low flow, and a 5–7% increase in high flow. We show that hydrologic responses to forest cover changes are not linearly related to climate, physiography, initial land cover, nor a multitude of watershed characteristics in most cases. These results suggest that enhanced streamflow watershed services anticipated from forest restoration or conservation of 10% or less of a watershed are generally modest.

    更新日期:2019-08-01
  • The development of children’s environmental attitude and behavior
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-31
    Siegmar Otto, Gary W. Evans, Min J. Moon, Florian G. Kaiser

    Environmental attitude and behavior are at the roots of a sustainable future, yet little is known about their developmental origins in early childhood. This longitudinal study is the first to examine how children’s environmental attitude and behavior develop throughout childhood (ages 7 to 18, N = 118). Environmental attitude and behavior form around the age of 7, increase until the age of 10, level off until the age of 14, and then decline again. Environmental behavior develops from childhood to early adolescence and starts consolidating from age 10 onwards, whereas environmental attitude remains in flux at least through early adulthood.

    更新日期:2019-07-31
  • Taming São Paulo’s floods: Dominant discourses, exclusionary practices, and the complicity of the media
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-25
    Karen Paiva Henrique, Petra Tschakert

    Climate change leads to more frequent and severe flooding, urging cities to adapt to protect their populations and assets. Despite exacerbated hazards, governments repeatedly draw on ‘tried-and-true’ approaches to protect the status quo, often with serious adverse effects for the poor and vulnerable. Yet, such dominant approaches do not go unchallenged as the media and other actors prompt public debate to assess flood impacts, scrutinise government decisions, and perhaps even promote alternative practices. News outlets are not, however, balanced or value-free; the events portrayed and the voices (and knowledges) recognised and included in media coverage deeply influence whether and how flooding is incorporated in policy. Focusing on São Paulo, Brazil, we examine how the media framed flood events and conveyed solutions during the city’s worst floods in recorded history. We demonstrate how competing media outlets largely depicted flooding as a natural phenomenon to be solved by governments and experts through existing techno-managerial practices, mirroring governmental partisan plans for adaptive action. In doing so, the media failed to offer a democratic space for public discussion, citizen contestation, and the advancement of alternative trajectories for adaptation. We posit that inclusive trajectories that address entrenched vulnerabilities and projected climate change will benefit from rigorous ethical debates around the media’s role in disaster coverage while strategically leveraging alternative media outlets as public pedagogy and agenda-setting tools.

    更新日期:2019-07-25
  • Nationalizing a global phenomenon: A study of how the press in 45 countries and territories portrays climate change
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-19
    Hong Tien Vu, Yuchen Liu, Duc Vinh Tran

    This study investigates the news coverage of climate change in 45 different countries and territories. Using the news framing approach, this study identifies the connections between several national socioeconomic, governance, and environmental traits and the portrayals of climate change. Although climate change is a global issue that affects every country in the world, how the news media frame it varies from country to country. Such a variation is related to each country’s economic development, climate severity, and governance. The findings of this study contribute to framing literature by assessing frame use in national contexts, filling in the gap in the application of this theoretical framework.

    更新日期:2019-07-19
  • Out of sight, out of mind: Plastic waste exports, psychological distance and consumer plastic purchasing
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-19
    Stuart J. Barnes

    Per capita consumption of plastic continues to increase and remains at high levels in high-income countries, despite obvious contributions to the global problem of plastics pollution. This paper attempts to provide an explanation for this phenomenon based on construal level theory, positing that plastic waste is a problem that is perceived as “out of sight and out of mind” for consumers in high plastic consumption (typically high income) countries and that this is influenced by the export of plastic waste to other (typically lower income and lower consumption) countries for disposal – shifting the burden of mismanaged plastic waste and perceptions of plastics pollution in the countries creating the majority of plastic waste. The apparent lack of plastics pollution in a local environment becomes a mediator, influenced by the export of plastic waste, which may then contribute to further plastics consumption. The theory is tested using structural equation modelling using rare, available matched data for mismanaged plastic waste, plastic waste exports, and plastics consumption at an aggregate country level. All study hypotheses are supported. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research and practice, including potential changes to government policy aimed at reducing future plastics consumption and pollution.

    更新日期:2019-07-19
  • The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-19
    N. Fitton, P. Alexander, N. Arnell, B. Bajzelj, K. Calvin, J. Doelman, J.S. Gerber, P. Havlik, T. Hasegawa, M. Herrero, T. Krisztin, H. van Meijl, T. Powell, R. Sands, E. Stehfest, P.C. West, P. Smith

    Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

    更新日期:2019-07-19
  • Transforming agricultural land use through marginal gains in the food system
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-05
    Peter Alexander, Anjali Reddy, Calum Brown, Roslyn C. Henry, Mark D.A. Rounsevell

    There is an increasing need for transformational changes in the global food system to deliver healthy nutritional outcomes for a growing population while simultaneously ensuring environmental sustainability. However, such changes are subject to political and public constraints that usually allow only gradual, incremental changes to occur. Drawing inspiration from the British cycling team’s concept of marginal gains, we show how transformation might be reconciled with incremental changes. We demonstrate that a set of marginal food system changes acting to increase production efficiency, to reduce losses or to adjust diets could collectively reduce the agricultural land required globally for food production by 21%, or over a third given higher adoption rates. The results show that while all categories of action are important, changes in consumer choices in Europe, North America and Oceania and in the supply-chain in Africa and West and Central Asia have the greatest potential to reduce the land footprint of the food system.

    更新日期:2019-07-07
  • Certification, good agricultural practice and smallholder heterogeneity: Differentiated pathways for resolving compliance gaps in the Indonesian oil palm sector
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-03
    George C. Schoneveld, Selma van der Haar, Dian Ekowati, Agus Andrianto, Heru Komarudin, Beni Okarda, Idsert Jelsma, Pablo Pacheco

    Enhancing smallholder compliance with sustainability standards and good agricultural practices features prominently on the global sustainability agenda. Operating in a sector that bears intense public scrutiny, Indonesia’s oil palm smallholders are especially confronted by pressures to enhance their environmental performance. Because smallholders experience differentiated compliance barriers however, it is widely recognized that for the purpose of more effectively prioritizing and targeting the necessary intervention support, smallholder heterogeneity needs to be better understood. This is especially the case for independent – in contrast to ‘plasma’ - oil palm smallholders, for whom corporate technical, input and financial support is comparatively inaccessible. Through multivariate analysis, this article contributes to these needs by developing a typology of independent oil palm smallholders in Indonesian Borneo. We subsequently model the predicted probabilities of different types of smallholders complying with Indonesia’s major national sustainability standard and select indicators of good agricultural practice. This analysis reveals structural compliance gaps, which threatens to restrict smallholder access to formal markets in future. In showing that intervention strategies to resolve these compliance gaps can be more impactful when these are adapted to smallholder livelihood assets, portfolios and strategies, this article points to the importance of more explicitly accounting for socio-economic differentiation when addressing contemporary smallholder upgrading challenges. With results however revealing how local entrepreneurs and elites complicit in regulatory evasion and illegal land encroachments play a significant role in the sub-sector, local political resistance to initiatives that aim to bring the sub-sector above board can be anticipated. This highlights how institutional building needs to be more explicitly incorporated into the design of smallholder-centric intervention strategies; through, for example, the adoption of more integrative landscape-level planning approaches.

    更新日期:2019-07-03
  • Planning for the past: Local temporality and the construction of denial in climate change adaptation
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-03
    Vanessa Bowden, Daniel Nyberg, Christopher Wright

    Climate change is upon us. While debates continue over how to mitigate emissions, it is evident that many parts of the world will need to adapt to an increasingly unstable climate. However, the persistence of climate denial presents a significant barrier to climate change response; if a future in which the climate has dramatically changed cannot be imagined, there is little motivation to act. Using qualitative interview data, our research investigates community responses to climate change adaptation planning in a coastal region of Australia identified as highly vulnerable to future sea level rise. While the local council engaged in extensive consultation to develop an adaptation plan, community opposition to proposed development changes ultimately resulted in a ‘wait and see’ response. We show how the community’s local understandings of place informed temporalities that led to a practice of climate denial. We outline three processes by which climate denial is socially organised: anchoring the past via historical reference; projecting continuity through a nostalgic lens of managing disaster; and enclosing the present by prioritising existing economic value. We show how these processes result in the social organisation of climate denial, and an inability to plan for a climate changed future.

    更新日期:2019-07-03
  • Reflexive adaptation for resilient water services: Lessons for theory and practice
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-07-02
    E.L Westling, L. Sharp, D. Scott, S. Tait, M. Rychlewski, R.M. Ashley

    ‘Adaptive management’ concern attempts to manage complex social-ecological and socio-technical systems in nimble ways to enhance their resilience. In this paper, three forms of adaptive management are identified, ‘scientific’ forms focused on collation of scientific data in response to management experiments, but more recent developments adding processes of collaboration as well as emphasising the need for reflexivity, that is, conscious processes of opening up debates to different perspectives and values. While reflexive adaptive management has been increasingly discussed in theory, there is a lack of examples of what its application means in practice. As a response, this paper examines an ‘Adaptive Planning Process’ (APP), seeking to apply reflexive adaptive management as a means to improve climate resilience in the UK water sector. The APP’s three inter linked workshops – Aspiration, Scenario and Roadmapping – were co-developed and trialled in a water utility. By describing and justifying the choices made in the development of the APP, the paper aims to reveal some of the challenges that arise when trying to design processes that achieve reflexive adaptation. The paper concludes that, if applied to planning for climate change, reflexive adaptation has the potential to explore multiple value positions, highlight different potential futures and acknowledge (and hence, partly address) power differentials, and therefore to offer the possibility of real change. On the basis of the trial, we argue that through tapping the depth and breadth of internal knowledge the APP process created the potential for decision making to be joined up across different parts of the utility, and hence offering new strategies and routes for addressing uncertainties and delivering more resilient water services.

    更新日期:2019-07-02
  • Changing places: The role of sense of place in perceptions of social, environmental and overdevelopment risks
    Glob. Environ. Chang. (IF 10.427) Pub Date : 2019-06-28
    Tara Quinn, François Bousquet, Chloé Guerbois

    An increasing focus on place based planning and adaptation processes brings to the fore the importance of understanding the situated experience of social and environmental change. Populations do not respond uniformly to environmental and social change, and given that consensus is needed to successfully achieve inclusive adaptation it is important to understand how and why people are more sensitive to certain changes and risks over others. Using a sense of place lens, we investigate how an individual’s relationship with their property and their town shapes their sensitivity to a range of risks. To investigate this, we conducted a survey in towns in South Africa, UK and France (n = 707) to examine the relationship between multiple dimensions of sense of place with place-based risks. We find that relationship with place matters differently for perception of social, environmental and overdevelopment risk. In particular, we find that feeling safe in place correlates with reduced perceptions of social risks but increases the likelihood of perceiving environmental risk. The role of place in risk perception is stronger at the property scale than the town scale, and it is only at the property scale that place meaning is related to risk perception. Our findings contribute to theory on the subjective experience of place-based risks and has implications for how social and environmental change can be communicated and managed.

    更新日期:2019-06-29
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