Machine learning has become popular in ecology but its use has remained restricted to predicting, rather than understanding, the natural world. Many researchers consider machine learning algorithms to be a black box. These models can however, with careful examination, be used to inform our understanding of the world. They are translucent boxes. Furthermore, the interpretation of these models can be

Charles Darwin posited two alternative hypotheses to explain the success of nonnative species based on their relatedness to natives: nonnative species that are closely related to native species could experience (1) higher invasion success because of an increased probability of habitat suitability (conferred by trait similarity) or (2) lower invasion success due to biotic interference, such as competition

Many temperate herbs now flower earlier than a few decades ago. Little is known about other phenological events, despite the importance of life history integration for plant fitness. This study addresses the hypothesis that temporal shifts of multiple phenological events in herbs are concordant with temporal changes in weather. Explicitly showing that changes in timing of annual life cycle events are

Rapid environmental change can decouple previously reliable cues from important resources, causing specialized recognition systems to result in maladaptive behaviors. For native herbivorous insects, such evolutionary traps are often imposed by attractive invasive plants that prove harmful to their offspring. Despite the costs of ovipositing on a poor‐quality host, evolutionary traps are expected to

Many animals improve offspring survival through parental care. Research on coevolution between parents has provided key insight into the genesis and maintenance of biparental care. However, understanding family dynamics more broadly requires assessing potential male–female coevolutionary processes in the more widespread and common context of uniparental care. Here, we explore how pre‐zygotic maternal

Flowering plants predominantly conduct water in tubes known as vessels, with vessel diameter playing a crucial role in plant adaptation to climate and reactions to climate change. The importance of vessels makes it essential to understand how and why vessel diameter, plant height, and other ecological factors are interrelated. Although shoot length is by far the main driver of variation in mean vessel

Predators typically are larger than their prey, and consequently, trophic level should increase with body size. Whereas this relationship has helped in developing predictions about food web structure and dynamics in mesocosms and simple communities, a trophic‐level–body‐size relationship may not exist for all kinds of communities or taxa, especially those with many non‐carnivorous species. Moreover

Fires shape the biogeochemistry and functioning of many ecosystems, and fire frequencies are changing across much of the globe. Frequent fires can change soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) storage by altering the quantity and chemistry of plant inputs through changes in plant biomass and composition as well as altering decomposition of soil organic matter. How decomposition rates change with shifting

Conventional approaches for the assessment of population abundance or trends are usually based on a single source of information, such as counts or changes in demographic parameters. However, these approaches usually neglect some of the information needed to properly understand the population as a whole, such as assessments of the non‐breeding proportion of the population and the drivers of population

Much of our understanding of natural invasions is retrospective, based on data acquired after invaders become established. As a consequence, we know little about the characteristics of the early population growth and habitat use of the invaders during establishment. Here we report on experimental introductions of guppies into natural streams in which we conducted monthly censuses of each population

Over the past three decades, there has been a concerted effort to study the long‐term dynamics of tropical forests throughout the world. Data regarding temporal trends in species diversity, species composition, and species‐specific demographic rates have now been amassed. Such data can be utilized to test predictions regarding the roles the environment and demographic stochasticity play in driving

The decomposition of leaf litter constitutes a major pathway of carbon and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Though it is well established that litter decomposition varies among species, most leaf litter decomposes not alone, but in mixture with litter from heterospecifics. The consequences of this mixing, and of the role of multiple dimensions of plant biodiversity, for litter decomposition

The unique traits of large animals often allow them to fulfill functional roles in ecosystems that small animals cannot. However, large animals are also at greater risk from human activities. Thus, it is critical to understand how losing large animals impacts ecosystem function. In the oceans, selective fishing for large animals alters the demographics and size structure of numerous species. While

There is growing evidence that anthropogenic landscapes can strongly influence the evolution of dispersal, particularly through fragmentation, and may drive organisms into an evolutionary trap by suppressing dispersal. However, the influence on dispersal evolution of anthropogenic variation in habitat patch turnover has so far been largely overlooked. In this study, we examined how human‐driven variation

Mangroves sequester large quantities of carbon (C) that become significant sources of greenhouse gases when disturbed through land‐use change. Thus, they are of great value to incorporate into climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. In response, a global network of mangrove plots was established to provide policy‐relevant ecological data relating to interactions of mangrove C stocks with

Climate and land use change modify surface water availability in African savannas. Surface water is a key resource for both wildlife and livestock and its spatial and temporal distribution is important for understanding the composition of large herbivore assemblages in savannas. Yet, the extent to which ungulate species differ in their water requirements remains poorly quantified. Here, we infer the

The input of senescent terrestrial leaf litter into soil and aquatic ecosystems is one of the most massive cyclic subsidies on Earth, particularly within forested ecosystems. For freshwater systems embedded within forests, litter inputs provide a vital source of energy and nutrients that allows greater production than in situ resources can provide. In return, freshwater food webs can provide an enormous

In urban areas, anthropogenic drivers of ecosystem structure and function are thought to predominate over larger‐scale biophysical drivers. Residential yards are influenced by individual homeowner preferences and actions, and these factors are hypothesized to converge yard structure across broad scales. We examined soil total C and total δ13C, organic C and organic δ13C, total N, and δ15N in residential

Predicting vegetation responses to increased future drought is challenging, owing to the complex interaction of multiple factors influencing both plant drought resistance and local climatic conditions, each of which may be subject to spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We conducted a detailed study of potential mechanisms underlying an elevational gradient in mortality that has characterized recent

The biotic interactions hypothesis posits that biotic interactions are more important drivers of adaptation closer to the equator, evidenced by “stronger” contemporary interactions (e.g., greater interaction rates) and/or patterns of trait evolution consistent with a history of stronger interactions. Support for the hypothesis is mixed, but few studies span tropical and temperate regions while experimentally

Pollinator service is essential for successful sexual reproduction and long‐term population persistence of animal‐pollinated plants, and innumerable studies have shown that insufficient service by pollinators results in impaired sexual reproduction (“pollen limitation”). Studies directly addressing the predictors of variation in pollinator service across species or habitats remain comparatively scarce

Soils are currently leaching out dissolved organic matter (DOM) at an increasing pace due to climate and land use change or recovery from acidification. The implications for stream biogeochemistry and food webs remain largely unknown, notably the metabolic balance (biotic CO2 emissions) and carbon cycling between autotrophs and bacteria. We increased by 12% the flux of DOM in a stream for three weeks

Food quantity–quality interactions determine growth rates and reproductive success of consumers and thereby regulate community dynamics and food web structure. Predator–prey models that shape our conceptual understanding of foraging ecology typically rely on the parametrization of fixed consumer responses to either food quantity or food quality. In nature, however, consumers optimize their fitness

The circumpolar Arctic is currently facing multiple global changes that have the potential to alter the capacity of tundra soils to store carbon. Yet, predicting changes in soil carbon is hindered by the fact that multiple factors simultaneously control processes sustaining carbon storage and we do not understand how they act in concert. Here, we investigated the effects of warmer temperatures, enhanced

Microbes in the atmosphere have broad ecological impacts, including the potential to trigger precipitation through species and strains that act as ice nucleation particles. To characterize spatiotemporal trends of microbial assemblages in precipitation we sequenced 16S (bacterial) and 18S (fungal) rRNA gene amplicon libraries collected from 72 precipitation events in three U.S. states (Idaho, Louisiana

The presence of yeasts in pollen and floral nectar is rather the norm than the exception. Due to the metabolic activities of yeasts, sugar and amino acid composition of nectar often drastically change and may negatively impact the nutritional value of nectar for pollinators and hence insect fitness. On the other hand, the presence of yeasts in floral nectar may also increase its nutritional value due

"A method is presented for unravelling the demographic equation for structured populations. A solution to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation is constructed using spline functions and this is fitted to stage-structured population data in such a way that the solution is smooth, positive, and does not imply negative death rates. The smoothness of the surface, and hence the complexity of the population

Predator–prey interactions play a key role in the evolution of species traits through antagonistic coevolutionary arms races. The evolution of beak morphology in the Darwin's finches in response to competition for seed resources is a classic example of evolution by natural selection. The seeds of Tribulus cistoides are an important food source for the largest ground finch species (Geospiza fortis,

Growing evidence shows that soil microbes affect plant coexistence in a variety of systems. However, since these systems vary in the impacts microbes have on plants and in the ways plants compete with each other, it is challenging to integrate results into a general predictive theory. To this end, we suggest that the concepts of niche and fitness difference from modern coexistence theory should be

Understanding long‐term changes in ecological communities during global change is a priority for 21st‐century ecology. Deserts, already at climatic extremes, are of unique interest because they are projected to be ecosystems most responsive to global change. Within a 500‐km2 landscape in the Mojave Desert, USA, we measured perennial plant communities at 100 sites three times (1979, 2008, and 2016)

The plant stress and plant vigor hypotheses are widely used to explain the distribution and abundance of insect herbivores across their host plants. These hypotheses are the subject of contentious debate within the plant herbivore research community, with several studies finding simultaneous support for both hypotheses for the same plant–herbivore interaction. We address the question of how such support

Ecologists widely acknowledge that a complex interplay of endogenous (density‐dependent) and exogenous (density‐independent) factors impact demographic processes. Individuals respond differently to those forces, ultimately shaping the dynamics of wild populations. Most comprehensive studies disentangling simultaneously the effects of density dependence, climate, and prey abundance while taking into

Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or “phenological mismatches.” Despite a growing number of single‐species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon

Comparing genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, and performance between native and nonnative populations has advanced our knowledge of contemporary evolution and its ecological consequences. However, such between‐range comparisons can be complicated by high among‐population variation within native and nonnative ranges. For example, native vs. nonnative comparisons between small and non‐representative

Mast‐fruiting trees represent a pulsed resource that both supports and destabilizes consumer populations. Whereas a reliable resource is abundant on average and with limited variation in time and space, masting is volatile and localized, and that variability ramifies throughout food‐webs. Theory is developed to evaluate how the space–time structure of masting interacts with consumers who exploit alternative

Projected increases in the variability of both temperature and precipitation will result in the greater likelihood and magnitude of extreme weather (e.g., cold snaps, droughts, heat waves) with potential implications for animal populations. Despite the ecological consequences of extreme weather, there are several challenges in identifying extreme events and measuring their influence on key demographic

Food webs in soil differ fundamentally from those aboveground; they are based on inputs from both living plants via root exudates, and from detritus, which is a complex mixture of fungi, bacteria, and dead plant remains. Trophic relationships are difficult to disentangle due to the cryptic lifestyle of soil animals and inevitable microbial contributions to their diet. Compound‐specific isotope analysis

I present a meta‐analysis of plant responses to 48 nutrient addition experiments conducted with native species in naturally growing tropical forests, exclusive of mangrove forests. The added nutrients include nitrogen (N) in 36 experiments, phosphorus (P) in 33 experiments, calcium and potassium in one experiment each, and various mixtures of essential nutrients in the remaining experiments. I evaluate

Bogs and fens cover 6% and 21%, respectively, of the 140,329 km2 Oil Sands Administrative Area in northern Alberta. Development of the oil sands has led to increasing atmospheric N deposition, with values as high as 17 kg N·ha−1·yr−1; regional background deposition is <2 kg N·ha−1·yr−1. Bogs, being ombrotrophic, may be especially susceptible to increasing N deposition. To examine responses to N deposition

A large array of species distribution model (SDM) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences of individual species or species assemblages. Given the wealth of existing models, it is unclear which models perform best for interpolation or extrapolation of existing data sets, particularly when one is concerned with species assemblages. We compared the predictive performance

Presence/absence data and presence‐only data are the two customary sources for learning about species distributions over a region. We present an ambitious agenda with regard to the analysis of such data. We illuminate the fundamental modeling differences between the two types of data. Most simply, locations are considered to be fixed under presence/absence data; locations are random under presence‐only

Colonization is a critical filter, setting the stage for short‐term and long‐term population success. Increased propagule pressure (e.g., more founding individuals) usually enhances colonization; however, this pattern may be driven by purely numeric effects, population genetic diversity effects, or both. To determine the independent and interactive effects of propagule pressure and genetic diversity

Macroalgae drive the largest CO2 flux fixed globally by marine macrophytes. Most of the resulting biomass is exported through the coastal ocean as detritus and yet almost no field measurements have verified its potential net sequestration in marine sediments. This gap limits the scope for the inclusion of macroalgae within blue carbon schemes that support ocean carbon sequestration globally, and the

Because interactions between plants and microbial organisms can influence species diversity and rates of nutrient cycling, how plants shape microbial communities is fundamental to understanding the structure of ecosystems. Despite this, the spatial and temporal scales over which plants influence microbial communities is poorly understood, particularly whether past abiotic or biotic legacies strongly

High latitude regions are warming rapidly with important ecological and societal consequences. Utilizing two landscape‐scale data sets from interior Alaska, we compared patterns in forest structure in two regions with differing fire disturbance, topography, and summer climate norms. Our goal was to evaluate a set of hypotheses concerning possible warming‐driven changes in forest structure suggested

While extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent, reliably predicting their impacts on consumers remains challenging, particularly for large consumers in marine environments. Many studies that do evaluate ECE effects focus primarily on direct effects, though indirect effects can be equally or more important. Here, we investigate the indirect impacts of the 2011 “Ningaloo Niño”

Dynamic population models typically aim to predict demography and the resulting population dynamics in relation to environmental variation. However, they rarely include the diversity of individual responses to environmental changes, thus hampering our understanding of demographic mechanisms. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM2) that is a combination of an integrated population

Deltas and backwater‐affected bottomlands are forming along tributary and mainstem confluences in reservoirs worldwide. Emergence of prograding deltas, along with related upstream hydrogeomorphic changes to river bottomlands in the backwater fluctuation zones of reservoirs, signals the development of new and dynamic riparian and wetland habitats. This study was conducted along the regulated Missouri

The Arctic tundra is warming rapidly, yet the exact mechanisms linking warming and observed ecological changes are often unclear. Understanding mechanisms of change requires long‐term monitoring of multiple ecological parameters. Here, we present the findings of a collaboration between government scientists, local people, park rangers, and academic researchers that provide insights into changes in

Transformation of intact vegetation into new kinds and configurations of human‐modified habitats is a well‐established driver of biodiversity loss. Following initial conversion, many human‐dominated landscapes are then subject to further large‐scale changes in land use. The impacts on biodiversity of repeated changes in land use remain poorly known, particularly how changes in the matrix interact with

The properties of the human mind are responsible for a number of biases that affect the quality of scientific research. However, scientists working in the fields of ecology and environmental science rarely take these biases into account. We conducted a meta‐analysis of data extracted from 125 publications comparing woody plant damage by defoliating insects in different environments in order to understand

The diversity–stability relationship is a long‐standing, central focus of community ecology. Two major challenges have impeded studies of the diversity–stability relationship (DSR): the difficulty in obtaining high‐quality longitudinal data sets; and the lack of a general theoretical framework that can encompass the enormous complexity inherent in “diversity,” “stability,” and their many interactions

Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic, and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error (FE) is the usual measure of success; however model predictions provide no insights into the potential for improvement. In short, the realized predictability of a specific model is uninformative about whether the system is inherently predictable or

The persistence of small populations remains a puzzle for ecology and conservation. Especially interesting is how naturally small, isolated populations are able to persist in the face of multiple environmental forces that create fluctuating conditions and should, theory predicts, lead to high probabilities of extirpation. We used a combination of long‐term census data and a five‐year demographic study

A basic understanding of how the landscape impedes, or creates resistance to, the dispersal of organisms and hence gene flow is paramount for successful conservation science and management. Spatially structured ecological networks are often used to represent spatial landscape‐genetic relationships, where nodes represent individuals or populations and resistance to movement is represented using non‐binary

The problem of pattern and scale is a central challenge in ecology. In community ecology, an important scale is that at which we aggregate species to define our units of study, such as aggregation of “nitrogen fixing trees” to understand patterns in carbon sequestration. With the emergence of massive community ecological data sets, there is a need to objectively identify the scales for aggregating

The composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using

Inter‐ and intraspecific competition are usually observed over a few generations but their patterns and consequences are seldom tractable in natural systems over longer timescales relevant to macroevolutionary change. Here, we use win‐draw‐lose competitive overgrowths for a marine benthic community of encrusting bryozoans that have evolved together in New Zealand for at least 2.3 million years to investigate

Measures of the seasonal timing of biological events are key to addressing questions about how phenology evolves, modifies species interactions, and mediates biological responses to climate change. Phenology is often characterized in terms of discrete events, such as a date of first flowering or arrival of first migrants. We discuss how phenological events that are typically measured at the population

Ecologists have long been interested in how communities change over time. Addressing questions about community dynamics requires ways of representing and comparing the variety of dynamics observed across space. Until now, most analytical frameworks have been based on the comparison of synchronous observations across sites and between repeated surveys. An alternative perspective considers community