Sequestering carbon into the soil can mitigate the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, improving crop productivity and yield financial gains for farmers through the sale of carbon credits. In this work, we develop and evaluate advanced Bayesian methods for modelling soil carbon sequestration and quantifying uncertainty around predictions that are needed to fit more complex soil carbon models

Concerns regarding the impact of climate change, food price volatility, and weather uncertainty have motivated users of simulation models to consider uncertainty in their simulations. One way to do this is to integrate uncertainty components in the model equations, thus turning the model into a problem of numerical integration. Most of these problems do not have analytical solutions, and researchers

The acceptance and usefulness of simulation models are often limited by the efficiency, transparency, reproducibility, and reliability of the modelling process. We address these issues by suggesting that modellers (1) “trace” the iterative modelling process by keeping a modelling notebook corresponding to the laboratory notebooks used by empirical researchers, (2) use a standardized notebook structure

Accurate streamflow prediction largely relies on historical meteorological records and streamflow measurements. For many regions, however, such data are only scarcely available. Facing this problem, many studies simply trained their machine learning models on the region's available data, leaving possible repercussions of this strategy unclear. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of tree- and

As our understanding of the interactions present in socio-ecological systems advance, emulation modeling can help reduce the complexity and required computational resources of the models used to represent these systems. While emulation is commonly used in model meta-analyses and parameterization, it has been less explored in the context of environmental management. In this research, I analyze the reflections

It is common for model-based simulations to be reported using prediction interval estimates that characterize the lack of precision associated with the simulated values. When based on Monte-Carlo sampling to approximate the relevant probability density function(s), such estimates can significantly underestimate the width of the prediction intervals, unless the sample size is sufficiently large. Using

Monitoring networks are improved by additional sensors. Optimal configurations of sensors give better representations of the process of interest, maximising its exploration while minimising the need for costly infrastructure. By modelling the monitored process, we can identify gaps in its representation, i.e. uncertain predictions, where additional sensors should be located. Here, with data collected

The actual use of models and decision tools for real-world reservoir operations is limited due to the gap between the models/tools and the real-world practices, tedious amount of work in case-by-case model developments, and computational difficulty of running complex numerical models. This paper presents generic diagnostic reservoir operation tools (DROT). The tools are developed based on generic properties

In Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Basin (LARB), inefficient irrigation and canal seepage contribute to salinization and waterlogging of irrigated lands and to stream-aquifer pollution. The geographic information system (GIS)-based river basin management model River GeoDSS is applied to further explore best management practices (BMPs) earlier determined to remedy these agro-environmental impacts. Unfortunately

The introduction of “smart” tracer techniques in recent years has provided new ways to investigate sediment-water interactions and microbial activity in stream corridors. In this study, the formulation of the STIR model (Marion et al., 2008) is extended to represent the transport and transformation of Resazurin-Resorufin smart tracers, and an object-oriented toolbox, STIR-RST, is presented for model

Upscaling methodologies, enforced on nested ocean modelling grids, have become a subject of more intense research due to their benefits in modelling highly dynamic coastal areas. In this paper, an upscaling algorithm is developed for the 3D-MOHID Water model, enabling TwoWay implementations, which considers the nudging of a child domain's velocities, temperature and salinity fields by a parent domain

Fire safety in urban areas is gaining more attention along with the rapid development of urbanization and the increasing complexity of urban structures. Many fire spread models have been developed to support emergency decision making. However, most of them only investigate on single scenarios (forest fire or house fire) and usually have difficulty in balancing model accuracy and timeliness, which makes

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps were missing in the latest guidance by Kelly et al. (2013), which reviewed five common integrated modeling approaches. Through a scoping review, the paper shows how Fuzzy Cognitive Maps satisfy key criteria for suitability in integrated environmental assessment, such as model purpose, types of data available to build a model, requirements in terms of spatial and temporal scales

We wish to introduce QWET, a new version of the free and open-source QGIS plugin for the aquatic ecosystem model WET. QWET is as a graphical user interface for the application, evaluation and experimentation of WET. Several new features have been incorporated since its predecessor and, here, we demonstrate elements of the new plugin by applying it to Danish Lake Ravn. Among others, we compare model

The development of a shared understanding of current flood risk amongst stakeholders is one of the main goals of flood risk management. This priority suggests that stakeholders must understand the possible impacts on their property and assets, and measures they can take to mitigate the risk. Nowadays, flood maps are considered to be a potentially valuable tool for improving this understanding, but

System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socio-environmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central to the system-of-systems approaches is the representation of systems

The phenological and growth parameters of CERES-Maize were estimated using data from field variety trials in 2017 and 2018 to simulate hybrid maize (Zea mays L.) grown in Michigan. Multiple calibration methods used include GENCALC (Genotype Coefficient Calculator), GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimate), NMCGA (Noisy Monte Carlo Genetic Algorithm) and ensembling approach. Three irrigated

LOADEST is a program for estimating constituent loads in rivers and streams developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), but it does not have a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that facilitates processing of large amounts of data. Therefore, we present the LOAD ESTimation (LOADEST) Parallel Data Processing Interface (LPDPI). LPDPI is unique as it features an easy-to-use workflow for data download

Cyberinfrastructure needs to be advanced to enable open and reproducible environmental modeling research. Recent efforts toward this goal have focused on advancing online repositories for data and model sharing, online computational environments along with containerization technology and notebooks for capturing reproducible computational studies, and Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for simulation

A system dynamic model, SMITUV (System Dynamic Modeling of Infiltration, Solute Transport, and Root Water Uptake in Vadose Zone) was developed for simulating transient soil water flow, solute transport, and root water uptake in crops under water and salinity stress in a multilayered unsaturated soil layer. SMITUV solves the mixed form one-dimensional Richards’ equation with a sink term for water transport

Environmental changes due to non-native species introductions and translocations are a global concern. Whilst understanding the causes of bioinvasions is important, there is need for decision-support tools that facilitate effective communication of the potential risks of invasive non-native species to stakeholders. Decision-support tools have been developed mostly in English language only, which increases

There are limitations to traditional visualization solutions regarding real-time 3D visualization of time-varying and large-volume 3D gridded oceanographic data in a web environment. We adopted the open-source visualization technologies to implement a browser-based 3D visualization framework. The developed 3D visualization interfaces provide users 3DGIS experiences on a virtual globe and simultaneously

This work presents an open-source tool to predict natural system responses by transforming the frequency spectrum of predictor variables to create a response that better resembles observations. The R package, namely WAvelet System Prediction (WASP), is based on a discrete wavelet transform (DWT)-based variance transformation method. We further introduce the maximal overlap DWT (MODWT)-based variance

Water networks are spatially dispersed, easily accessible, and vulnerable to contaminating intrusions. If contamination is detected too late, then damage to the population may be irreversible. For the hard task of optimal sensor placement, this work presents a multi-objective approach that is combined with post-processing methods for a Pareto front analysis. The contamination is represented by the

Environmental decisions are complex as they are multi-dimensional, highly interdisciplinary and not only involve multiple stakeholders with conflicting objectives, but also many possible alternatives with uncertain consequences. The difficulty lies in making trade-offs between tough value trade-offs on the one hand while appreciating uncertain impacts of alternatives on the other. To support decisions

We review concepts that have been used to address uncertainty in integrated modeling. Although conceptual approaches to tackle uncertainty seem diverse, a synthesis reveals more similarities than differences in the concepts published, especially if one adopts a model application-oriented focus. Given our findings, we slightly adapt the uncertainty framework table (UFT) developed by Walker et al. (2003)

Parameter calibration for computationally expensive environmental models (e.g., hydrodynamic models) is challenging because of limits on computing budget and on human time for analysis and because the optimization problem can have multiple local minima and no available derivatives. We present a new general-purpose parallel surrogate global optimization method Parallel Optimization with Dynamic coordinate

In this study, a novel density-based spatial clustering method is developed to maintain a diverse set of solutions for stochastic multi-objective optimization algorithms. This method dynamically clusters solutions in the decision space after solutions evaluations. Dominance check is localized to maintain solutions that are globally dominated but locally non-dominated in their cluster. Unlike the original

Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), a hydrodynamic rainfall-runoff and urban drainage simulation model, is widely applied in planning, analysis, and design. It is worth mentioning that the hydrological and hydrodynamic simulation functions of SWMM can also provide decision support for real-time urban stormwater management. However, it remains challenging to directly apply traditional SWMM to real-time

Constructed wetlands (CWs) are engineering systems recognized as an efficient and sustainable option to wastewater treatment. Due to the growing interest in CWs for waste management, the number of works analyzing their footprint and impact has risen in the last years. Thus, the study of these systems and their components in construction, operation, and demolition phases is important to characterize

This study's objective is to assess the sensitivity analysis' potential for application in the context of the stochastic-input based modelling of fluvial morphodynamics. The corresponding work involved (1) an analysis of the work available in the literature and (2) an independent application of sensitivity analysis for comparison. The application of sensitivity analysis was accomplished by using a

The increase in water salinisation in catchments has led to increased concern in assessing major ion loadings in freshwater environments. In this study, we couple a globally fitted model on chemical weathering to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the estimation of daily geochemical loadings at the catchment scale, “SWATLitho”. The enhancements include i) a modification on the discretisation

Due to the growing amount of data from in-situ sensors in environmental monitoring, it becomes necessary to automatically detect anomalous data points. Nowadays, this is mainly performed using supervised machine learning models, which need a fully labelled data set for their training process. However, the process of labelling data is typically cumbersome and, as a result, a hindrance to the adoption

Models are important tools to integrate ecological and socio-economic knowledge to better understand and manage social-ecological systems. Challenges include, among others, the adequate representation of feedback loops between the socio-economic and the ecological subsystems, uncertainties and human behaviour. To analyse how well models are able to address these challenges in the fields of biodiversity

We introduce the Aurora software, which performs continuous time random walk (CTRW) particle tracking (PT) of dissolved contaminants on macroscopic groundwater flow fields computed using MODFLOW. This is a natural and practical approach to modeling transport at field scale: deterministic, explicitly resolved flow information is used directly while unresolved small-scale physical and chemical heterogeneity

Megafires are large wildfires that occur under extreme weather conditions and produce mixed burn severities across diverse environmental gradients. Assessing megafire effects requires data covering large spatiotemporal extents, which are difficult to collect from field inventories. Remote sensing provides an alternative but is limited in revealing post-fire recovery trajectories and the underlying

The management of water resources among competing uses presents a complex technical and policy challenge. Integrated hydro-economic models capable of simulating the hydrologic system in irrigated and non-irrigated regions including the response of farmers to hydrologic constraints and economic and policy incentives, provide a framework to understand biophysical and socioeconomic implications of changing

In this manuscript, we describe a computational model to delineate watershed boundaries for simple geometries (points, lines or polygons) where maximum water flow distance can be constrained by a user-defined variable. This method generalizes earlier research to delineate watershed boundaries using a marching algorithm. Our proposed method allows users to delineate watersheds for a number of use-cases

The random-walk method is inherently simple and numerically stable. However, when used in hydro-environmental analyses, most of the existing random-walk methods ignore the influence of the non-uniform water depth and only consider the transport of inert materials, hence the inability of modelling biochemical reactions. In addition, the existing applications mainly focus on instantaneous-release problems

The urban water-energy nexus sits at the intersection of the global phenomena of water scarcity, energy transitions and urbanisation. Research found that end use dominates the water-energy nexus and that this component plays an important role in urban dynamics, but focussed on the Global North. We investigate the nexus of Mumbai and its long-term resource demand. Our tool is a novel system dynamics

Modeling agriculture-impacted hydrological processes remains a challenge, as information on irrigation activities is often insufficient. This study developed modules for emulating high-resolution irrigation activities and representing water management policies in integrated hydrologic modeling. The new modeling approach was implemented in China's second largest endorheic river basin with intensive

A Graphical User Interface (GUI) is regularly used to support model applications in catchment hydrological modelling software. A GUI is generally user-friendly for novice users but opens sources of irreproducible research. We illustrate that none of the 10 Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models over the Upper Blue Nile can easily be reproduced. Scripted workflows provide the ability to reproduce

A new software application, called URUNME, was developed in C#.NET for integrated environmental modeling. URUNME provides functionality for model coupling, data storage, analysis, visualization, scenario management, and decision support systems. A graphical user interface (GUI) based on drag-and-drop flowchart type diagrams allow modelers to set-up a model application once and then focus on running

Computer programs have taken an important role in the prediction of future ecological trajectories. This study reviewed the existing computer programs that aim to predict future trajectories of ecosystems, biological populations, or ecological systems. Overall, 106 programs were examined. A rich set of programs exist and most of them are free. A substantial proportion (43%) are distributed open source

Serious games and gamification are useful tools for learning and sustaining long-term engagement in the activities that are not meant to be entertaining. However, the application of game design in the participatory modeling context remains fragmented and mostly limited to user-friendly interfaces, storytelling, and visualization for better representation of the simulation models. This paper suggests

Being able to replicate research results is the hallmark of science. Replication of research findings using computational models should, in principle, be possible. In this manuscript, we assess code sharing and model documentation practices of 7500 publications about individual-based and agent-based models. The code availability increased over the years, up to 18% in 2018. Model documentation does

Households are responsible for a significant share of global greenhouse emissions. Hence, academic and policy discourses highlight behavioral changes among households as an essential strategy for combating climate change. However, formal models used to assess economic impacts of energy policies face limitations in tracing cumulative impacts of adaptive behavior of diverse households. The past decade

This paper describes a methodology for constructing and simulating from models of daily weather time series at multiple locations, incorporating potential nonstationarities and suitable for use in those studies of climate impacts and adaptation where a detailed representation of local weather is required. The approach is based on generalised linear models (GLMs) and aims to allow for realistic representations

Agroecosystem modelling has increasingly focused on the integration of soil biogeochemical processes and crop growth. However, few models are available that offer high computing efficiencies for region-scale simulations, integrated decision support tools, and a structure that allows for easy extension. This paper introduces a new modelling tool to fill this gap: the GDNDC (Gridded DNDC) system for

We present a new strategy for performing global sensitivity analysis capable to estimate main and interaction effects from a generic sampling design. The new strategy is based on a meaningful combination of variance- and distribution-based approaches. The strategy is tested on four analytic functions and on a hydrological model. Results show that the analysis is consistent with the state-of-the-art

Serious games are increasingly used as tools to facilitate stakeholder participation and stimulate social learning in environmental management. We present the Virtual River Game that aims to support stakeholders in collaboratively exploring the complexity of a changed river management paradigm in the Netherlands. The game uses a novel, hybrid interface design that features a bidirectional coupling

Sensitivity analysis (SA) has been used to evaluate the behavior and quality of environmental models by estimating the contributions of potential uncertainty sources to quantities of interest (QoI) in the model output. Although there is an increasing literature on applying SA in environmental modeling, a pragmatic and specific framework for spatially distributed environmental models (SD-EMs) is lacking

Geospatial referenced environmental data are extensively used in environmental assessment, prediction, and management. Data are commonly obtained by nonrandom surveys or monitoring networks, whereas spatial sampling and inference affect the accuracy of subsequent applications. Design-based and model-based procedures (DB and MB for short) both allow one to address the gap between statistical inference

Understanding lake dynamics is crucial to provide scientifically credible information for ecosystem management. In this context, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models are a key information source to assess critical but often subtle changes in lake dynamics occurring at all spatio-temporal scales. However, those models require time-consuming calibrations, often carried out by trial-and-error. Through

The authors developed a non-proprietary web-browser based open-source software that allows users to visualize and evaluate hydrologic space-time data in an interactive environment. Hydrovise is client-side browser-based software that interprets a configuration file to construct control elements in the Graphical User Interface for visualizations of space-time data and model simulation evaluations. It