When short-term returns are serially uncorrelated, expected long-term and short-term returns are equal. However, we show that negative serial correlation among the short-term returns make the expected long-term returns lower than the short-term ones. Such serial correlation is likely to arise, for example, for an investor whose portfolio is invested abroad in assets denominated in foreign currencies

Theoretical research demonstrates the important role of uncertainty in shaping a firm’s cost elasticity. We contribute to this literature by analyzing the inherent tension between the effects of uncertainty about unit contribution margin (CM) and sales volume on cost elasticity. We identify the occurrence of words implying uncertainty in managerial forward-looking statements and employ a novel methodology

Given that policy uncertainty shocks in the economic environment can exacerbate financial market volatility and pose financial risks, this paper utilizes a smooth transition version of the GARCH-MIDAS model to investigate the impact of different structural state changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on stock market volatility. The extended model explains the nonlinear effects of the macro variables

This paper explores the link between personal experience with COVID-19 and US retail investors’ financial decision-making during the first COVID-19 wave. Do retail investors that have personally experienced COVID-19 change their investments after the pandemic outbreak, and if so, why? We use a cross-sectional dataset from an online survey of US retail investors collected in July and August 2020 to

We investigate joint tail events behavior of prices risk in European energy markets and to explore its interlinkages with supply and demand, financial market panics, policy uncertainty, and environmental regulation. Results reveal that extreme occurrences have a short-term memory, and the occurrence of extreme high prices lowers the likelihood of extreme high prices the following year, in contrast

We investigate the corporate governance effect of social security fund, and explore the ways through which social security affects firm performance This paper finds that: the shareholding ratio of social security funds is positively related to the performance level of companies; the shareholding ratio of social security funds is significantly and positively related to the management compensation of

A large Brazilian agribusiness lender introduces a new contracting technology: grain warehouses. Using runner-up warehouse locations as a control group, I find that construction of these warehouses permits a new debt contract, namely, barter credit repayable in grain. This contract increases borrowers' debt capacity and reduces borrowing costs. The effects are stronger when grain price risk is higher

J.M. Keynes coined the term normal backwardation, a situation where a futures price for a particular expiry month is less than the expected spot price for that month. He argued hedgers pay speculators a risk premium, giving rise to normal backwardation. We study the behavior of commodity futures before and since financialization of the markets, which started about 20 years ago. We find the poor returns

We investigate beneficial ownership networks from 1999 to 2018 and find the presence of the small-world phenomenon, which fosters the participation of shareholders and public firms in beneficial ownership events. The small-world phenomenon is also associated with the presence of brokers, which are nodes that bridge shareholders with other shareholders and targets. Moreover, the beneficial ownership

We propose efficient Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for estimation of systemic risk measures, LRMES, SRISK and ΔCoVaR, and apply it for thirty global systemically important banks and for eighteen largest US financial institutions over the period of 2000–2020. The advantage of the Hamiltonian method is an efficient estimation of all parameters jointly in high dimensional models and providing

An employee's annual earnings fall by 13% the year her firm files for bankruptcy, and the present value of lost earnings from bankruptcy to six years following bankruptcy is 87% of pre-bankruptcy annual earnings. More worker earnings are lost in thin labor markets and among small firms. Ex-ante compensating wage differentials for this “bankruptcy risk” are up to 2% of firm value for a firm whose credit

We use retail structured equity product (SEP) issuances to construct a new sentiment measure for large capitalization stocks. The SEP sentiment measure predicts negative abnormal returns on the SEP reference stocks based on a variety of factor models, and also predicts returns in Fama-MacBeth regressions that include a wide range of covariates. Consistent with our interpretation that SEP issuances

This study extends the examination of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis in Bitcoin market during a five-year fluctuation period, from September 1 2017 to September 1 2022, by analyzing 28,739,514 qualified tweets containing the targeted topic “Bitcoin”. Unlike previous studies, we extracted fundamental keywords as an informative proxy for carrying out the study of the EMH in the Bitcoin market rather

Using a dynamic real-option model of litigation, we show that the increasingly popular practice of third-party litigation financing has ambiguous implications for total ex-post litigant surplus. A defendant and a plaintiff bargain over a settlement payment. The defendant takes costly actions to avoid deadweight losses associated with large transfers to the plaintiff. Litigation financing bolsters the

To show how pre-contractual documents are currently employed to disclose sustainability and ESG-related information, we map and examine the contents of 945 Key Investor Information Documents (KIIDs) from ten major asset managers, including sustainable and non-sustainable funds. Through a Structural Topic Modelling approach, we infer sustainability-related topics and compare their contents and prevalence

We investigate how the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by publicly listed firms in the European Union affects peer private firms. We find that private firms’ capital investment decreases significantly after the IFRS mandate, relative to public firms. Private firms also display decreased investment when benchmarked against firms relatively insulated from the

Several papers argue that financial economics faces a replication crisis because the majority of studies cannot be replicated or are the result of multiple testing of too many factors. We develop and estimate a Bayesian model of factor replication that leads to different conclusions. The majority of asset pricing factors: (i) can be replicated, (ii) can be clustered into 13 themes, the majority of

This paper proposes a novel two-stage VMD-based multi-scale regression to analyze various cryptocurrency attributes that are still unclear in the existing literature. In the first stage, Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) is used to decompose the cryptocurrency prices into low, medium and high frequency modes with different attributes. In the second stage, the VMD-based multi-scale regression is

This paper adopts an interactive network approach to investigate the factors driving the carbon footprint of Bitcoin, a negative aspect of cryptocurrencies. Our findings demonstrate that the dynamics of Bitcoin prices, including both returns and volatility, have a significant impact on the system comprising carbon emissions, energy prices, carbon prices, and financial indicators. Particularly during

This study investigates whether audit risks that accompany data breaches of major customer firms can spillover into the supply chain and affect audit fees of their suppliers. Based on the economic bond that exists between supplier firms and their major customers, we predict that data breach incidents of customer firms will lead to higher audit fees for their respective suppliers. Consistent with customer

After a natural experiment is first used, other researchers often reuse the setting, examining different outcome variables. We use simulations based on real data to illustrate the multiple hypothesis testing problem that arises when researchers reuse natural experiments. We then provide guidance for future inference based on popular empirical settings including difference-in-differences, instrumental

We examine whether shareholder votes in environmental and social (ES) proposals are informative about firms’ ES risks. ES proposals are unique in that they nearly always fail. We examine whether mutual funds’ support for these failed proposals contains information about the ES risks that firms face. Higher support in failed ES proposals predicts subsequent ES incidents and the effects of these incidents

In this paper, we propose a deep learning approach to extract emotional information from the audio of earnings conference calls and empirically examine the influences of these emotional variables on securities analysts' follow-up behavior. Our findings suggest that, in the statement section, positive emotional information tended to positively influence the analysts' willingness to issue rating reports

Assuming that the macroeconomic environment can be transformed into a two-district system, that is, the path of financial asset prices is uncertain, we track and study the motion of stocks and other asset price process under the conditional Black-Scholes model, and give the economical explanation of the mathematical formula. Further, we derive and analyze an option pricing formula for the Black-Scholes

The Theory of Technology Dominance (TTD) provides a theoretical foundation for understanding how intelligent systems impact human decision-making. The theory has three phases with propositions related to (1) the foundations of reliance, (2) short-term effects on novice versus expert decision-making, and (3) long-term epistemological effects related to individual deskilling and profession-wide stagnation

We examine the dynamics of liquidity using a comprehensive sample of U.S. stocks in the post-decimalization period. Motivated by a continuous-time inventory model, we compute a high-frequency measure of order imbalance volatility to proxy for the inventory risk faced by liquidity providers. We show that high-frequency order imbalance volatility is an important driver of liquidity and explains the often

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship and volatility spillovers between cryptocurrency and commodity markets using different multivariate GARCH models. We take into account the nature of interaction between these markets and their transmission mechanisms when analyzing the conditional cross effects and volatility spillovers. Our results confirm the presence of significant returns and volatility

As Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) information has become an essential resource for investors, regulators have attempted to assure its quality. While more companies offer ESG disclosure, it is usually not fully substantiated with supporting information. Assurance is needed to verify that ESG reports are free of substantive errors. However, traditional financial audit approaches are less effective

This study explores how an organization’s controllers (management accountants) give sense to the information provided by its business intelligence (BI) system, and thus shape the construction of information trust. A qualitative case study was conducted within a Finnish food manufacturing company, building on the notion of trust related to management accounting information and sensemaking theory. The

We identify a novel economic mechanism through which passive ownership positively affects informational efficiency in the cross-section of firms. Passive investors’ inelastic demand lowers a firm’s cost-of-capital, inducing it to take more risk. The higher cash flow variance, in turn, incentivizes active investors to acquire more precise private information, pushing up price informativeness for firms

Abstract not available

Advertising is a critical competitive tool that shapes interactions among firms in the product market. Using third-party tracked data on advertising outlet costs, I find that a nontrivial portion of public firms, even those with intense advertising activities, do not disclose advertising expenses in their financial statements, indicating significant disclosure discretion. I further use product category-level

This article analyzes the contagion risk between WTI crude oil prices and several major commodities markets. We study the dynamics of commodity connectedness, and we measure volatility contagion under various market conditions and commodity price cycles between 1982 and 2020. Our results show that the intensity, speed, and duration of contagion vary across periods according to macroeconomic factors

Using Baltagi and Li's (2002) semi-parametric panel fixed effects model, this article investigates the effect of board gender diversity (BGD) on a firm's environmental performance (EP) in a sample of firms from the 2020 Fortune 1000 Index over the 2004–2020 period. We address the endogeneity issue via a control function. Contrary to the existing literature, we find an inverted U-shaped BGD-EP relationship

We investigate the impact of three subdivision indicators of inclusive digital finance (coverage, usage, and digitization) on corporate green innovation. Using the data of A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2020.We present evidence that: 1) the development of inclusive digital finance can significantly enhance the level of corporate green technology innovation. 2) financing constraints play a partial

This study examines the association between creative corporate culture and corporate tax avoidance. We construct a novel measure of creative corporate culture through the textual analysis of public firms’ 10-K reports. We find that firms with highly creative culture avoid taxes to a greater extent than firms with less creative culture. This effect is incremental to previously documented effects of

Drawing upon the notion that the legal environment provides the conceptual and practical space in which corporate actions are deemed to be responsible (or not), we examine the effect of regulatory uncertainty on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) engagements. Using a sample of US firms, we find that when the legal and regulatory environment is uncertain, firms decrease overall CSR activities, as

The promising empirical results presented using high-frequency data show that the logvolatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with a Hurst exponent smaller than 0.5. Motivated by these findings, we propose the autoregressive rough volatility (ARRV) model, which combines the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) process and time series models to forecast volatility. We apply this

As a significant uncertainty in business operations, litigation risk negatively impacts corporate reputation and increases corporates' risk-taking. This paper explores the impact of litigation risk on corporate risk-taking. The study finds that: the more significant the amount of litigation involved and the higher the litigation risk, the greater the corporate risk-taking; the higher the analyst concern

In this study, we use the prevailing GARCH-MIDAS model to explore the forecasting performance of world uncertainty index (WUI) in crude oil volatility. Our empirical results indicate the WUI can outperform the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk index (GPR). Using the encompassing test, our study provides strong evidences that the predictive content from WUI can encompass the EPU

This paper examines the association between bank liquidity hoarding (BLH) and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a sample of U.S. banks and applying fixed effect estimators, we reveal that banks rack up liquidity assets and liabilities when the pandemic escalates. Our finding holds with alternative BLH and COVID-19 proxies and is further validated by a falsification test. Additional analysis reveals that

We analyze how individual investors respond to inflation. We introduce a unique data set containing information on local inflation and security portfolios of more than 2,000 clients of a German bank between 1920 and 1924, covering the German hyperinflation. We find that individual investors buy fewer (sell more) stocks when facing higher local inflation. This effect is more pronounced for less sophisticated

In this paper, we present a novel approach for reimagining the scope and impact of design science and behavioral science accounting information systems (AIS) research. We do so by first explicitly considering the broad impact of accounting on business functions. The proliferation of information technology throughout the organization coupled with the blurring of the lines between “accounting” and “business”

We examine the role of first impressions in angel investor decision-making. Video stills of entrepreneurs pitching on the Shark Tank show and in Startup Battlefield competitions yield six measures of first impressions of entrepreneurs’ facial traits and two principal components: one that captures general ability and the other that contrasts charm and managerial ability. We find positive associations

This paper develops a multi-firm equilibrium model of information acquisition based on differences in firms’ characteristics. The model shows that heightened economic uncertainty amplifies stock price reactions to earnings announcements via increased investor attention, which varies by firm characteristics. Firms with higher systematic risk or more informative announcements attract more attention and

We reinvestigate the presence of the well-known size bias in ASSET4 ESG data identified by Drempetic et al. (2020) in its successor database, the new Refinitiv ESG database. Following Drempetic et al. (2020) we apply a linear mixed model to explain a company's degree of sustainability by firm size and further control variables. Even though Refinitiv claims to have minimized the size bias in their ESG

In this paper we examine how sensitive Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts based on simple linear quantile regressions are to the sampling frequency used to calculate realized volatility. We use sampling frequencies from one to 108 min for ICE Brent Crude Oil futures and test the out-of-sample performance of a set of quantile regression models using formal coverage tests. The results show that a one-factor

We employ an event study method to examine the impacts of the collapse of a prominent tech industry bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), on global stock markets. The collapse triggered panic and uncertainty, leading to significant negative returns worldwide. The magnitude of the impact was more pronounced within developed markets due to the higher level of integration and interdependence with the global

We investigate US inflation expectations de-anchoring by analyzing tail behavior of inflation swaps. We extract probabilities of jumps in inflation expectations along with their potential jump severity and look through an event study approach and a regression analysis on how Fed policy impacted these. Our findings suggest that recent increases in interest rates and FOMC announcements of hikes did not

This paper contributes to explaining the benefit-cost puzzle of insider trading activity. We show that net insider purchase is a convex function of the quarterly earnings surprise decile in terms of mean, median, and purchase frequency. The convexity suggests that the magnitude of net insider purchases is positively associated with information asymmetry. Further evidence indicates that the majority

We show that for a sample of 1,882 publicly listed Indian firms and sample period from 2016 to 2021, derivative-usage significantly reduces the idiosyncratic stock return volatility. The negative effect of derivative-usage on idiosyncratic volatility is more pronounced for firms with poor information environment, and financially-constrained and distressed firms. The quality of corporate governance

This paper investigates the impact of banks' environmental engagement on their future stock price crash risk. Given the strong commitment of European institutions towards a low carbon economy, we focus on European banks, which are expected to be crucial actors in driving this challenge. Using a sample of 447 bank-year observations across 22 European countries from 2015 to 2021, we find a negative relationship

We explore the economic diffusion radius of high-speed railway (HSR) stations. Using spatial differences-in-differences (DID) method, we find that the openings of HSR stations can promote companies’ performance within 20 kilometers. We also observe a heterogeneity of the effect in different administrative divisions, with a positive impact on surrounding companies in the same city as the nearest station

We construct text-based measures of the primary concerns listed firms associated with the spread of COVID-19 and other epidemic diseases. We identify which firms perceive to lose or gain from a given epidemic and textually decompose the epidemic's effect on the firm's demand and supply. We find that the effects of COVID-19 manifest as a simultaneous shock to demand and supply, with both shocks affecting

The Journal of Accounting Research is proud to recognize our top referees of the previous calendar year. The senior editors selected those named below for their “2022 Excellence in Refereeing” based on the quality and the number of reviews they had performed for the journal during the 2022 calendar year. We thank the referees for their invaluable services to the journal. Jannis Bischof, University

The existing literature attributes the recent decay of stock market anomalies to increased arbitrage activities (e.g., Chordia, Subrahmanyam, and Tong, 2014; McLean and Pontiff, 2016; Green, Hand, and Zhang, 2017). In this paper, we present evidence that the apparent demise of several prominent classes of stock market anomalies is better explained by changes in underlying fundamentals. The attenuation

This paper examines the effect of the monitoring attention of institutional investors on firms’ trade credit financing. We document that trade credit financing is positively affected by the monitoring attention of the firm's institutional owners. Notably, only institutional investors with the highest monitoring attention can positively affect the firm's account payables, which is consistent with the

This study explores the interdependence between timber, water, and energy markets and investigates the potential domino effect of extreme risk across these markets. Specifically, using CAViaR-TVP-VAR, we examine the role of water and timber investments as safe-havens and hedges for traditional energy markets, before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results indicate that water and timber markets

Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) as acquisition funders are now under investors scrutiny due to challenging market dynamics and pressure from regulators. Given the sustainability-related importance of energy SPACs, as well as their binary nature, of either funding an acquisition or failing, we seek to identify factors that lead to their success. Analyzing energy SPACs from 2003–2022, we

We evaluate the ability of risk-averse commercial traders’ net position in futures to predict changes in cryptocurrency returns, which can be useful to cryptocurrency-market-specific measures developed in the behavioral finance literature. Notably, we show that the hedging factor has a statistically significant and economically important effect on the predictability of crypto returns via its moderating