On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine. In this paper, we analyze the response of European and global stock markets alongside a representative sample of commodities. We compare the war response against the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the not-too-distant 2008 global financial crisis. Applying a Markov-switching HAR model on volatility proxies, estimates are made of synchronization, duration and intensity measures for each event. In broad terms, stock markets and commodities respond most rapidly to the Russian invasion; and post-invasion crisis intensity is noticeably smaller compared to both the Covid-19 and the GFC. Wheat and nickel are the most affected commodities due to the prominent exporter status of the two countries.

2022 年 2 月 24 日，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。在本文中，我们分析了欧洲和全球股市的反应以及具有代表性的商品样本。我们将战争反应与最近的 Covid-19 大流行和不太遥远的 2008 年全球金融危机进行比较。在波动率代理上应用马尔可夫转换 HAR 模型，对每个事件的同步、持续时间和强度度量进行估计。从广义上讲，股票市场和商品对俄罗斯入侵的反应最快；与 Covid-19 和 GFC 相比，入侵后的危机强度明显较小。由于两国的重要出口国地位，小麦和镍是受影响最大的商品。