The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets

Highlights

• We analyse stock market and commodity reaction to the Russian-Ukrainian war.

• We compare synchronization, duration and intensity of the war to other crises.

• Financial markets responded earlier to the war event than either the GFC or Covid-19.

• Intensity metrics, show the war to be muted compared to the GFC or Covid-19.

• High crisis intensity reveals ongoing pressure to commodities.

Abstract

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine. In this paper, we analyze the response of European and global stock markets alongside a representative sample of commodities. We compare the war response against the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the not-too-distant 2008 global financial crisis. Applying a Markov-switching HAR model on volatility proxies, estimates are made of synchronization, duration and intensity measures for each event. In broad terms, stock markets and commodities respond most rapidly to the Russian invasion; and post-invasion crisis intensity is noticeably smaller compared to both the Covid-19 and the GFC. Wheat and nickel are the most affected commodities due to the prominent exporter status of the two countries.