The simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) is considered in 13 state-of-the-art models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We use frequency–wavenumber power spectra of the models and observations for Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal winds at 250 hPa (U250), and consider the historical simulations and end of twenty-first century projections for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The models simulate a spectrum quantitatively resembling that observed, though systematic biases exist. MJO and Kelvin waves (KW) are mostly underestimated, while equatorial Rossby waves (ER) are overestimated. Most models project a future increase in power spectra for the MJO, while nearly all project a robust increase for KW and weaker power values for most other wavenumber–frequency combinations, including higher wavenumber ER. In addition to strengthening, KW also shift toward higher phase speeds (or equivalent depths). Models with a more realistic MJO in their control climate tend to simulate a stronger future intensification.

耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP6) 第 6 阶段的 13 个最先进模型考虑了对马登-朱利安振荡 (MJO) 和对流耦合赤道波 (CCEW) 的模拟。我们使用输出长波辐射 (OLR) 和 250 hPa (U250) 纬向风的模型和观测的频率波数功率谱，并考虑 SSP245 和 SSP585 情景的历史模拟和 21 世纪末预测。尽管存在系统偏差，但这些模型在数量上模拟了类似于观察到的光谱。MJO 和开尔文波 (KW) 大多被低估，而赤道罗斯贝波 (ER) 被高估。大多数模型预测 MJO 的功率谱未来会增加，而几乎所有人都预测 KW 的强劲增长和大多数其他波数频率组合的功率值较弱，包括更高的波数 ER。除了强化之外，KW 还转向更高的相速度（或等效深度）。在其控制气候中具有更真实 MJO 的模型倾向于模拟更强的未来集约化。