Japanese Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) is an important commercial fish species with a seasonal migratory habit in China. At present, no study has reported the seasonal variation of its potential suitable habitat. Therefore, we used biomod2 ensemble model to predict the potential suitable habitat of S. niphonius in different seasons through its current distribution sites and future environmental variables. Our results showed that the ensemble model had a high accuracy, with true skill statistics and receiver operator characteristic values of 0.91 and 0.98, respectively. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, the reduction rate of suitable habitats in summer of 2050 will be 33.2%, and those for the rest of the seasons will reach 3.5%. The reduction rate in summer of 2100 will be 43.5%, and those for the remaining seasons will reach 6.5%. In addition, this reduction rate will become more serious with the increase in emission scenario and time, especially in the RCP8.5 in which the summer reduction rate is as high as 88.9%. Habitat changes in summer show a strong temperature sensitivity. The distribution centroid of S. niphonius will shift to higher latitudes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Depth and temperature are the two most important factors that affect the distribution of this species. The results can provide basic data for understanding the adaptability of S. niphonius to climate change and establishing an elastic ecosystem.

日本鲭鱼（鲭鱼)是我国重要的具有季节性洄游习性的商品鱼种。目前，尚无研究报告其潜在适宜栖息地的季节变化。因此，我们使用 biomod2 集成模型来预测潜在的适宜栖息地S. niphonius在不同的季节通过其当前的分布地点和未来的环境变量。我们的结果表明，集成模型具有很高的准确性，真实技能统计和接收器操作员特征值分别为 0.91 和 0.98。在代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5情景下，2050年夏季适宜栖息地减少率为33.2%，其余季节减少率为3.5%。2100年夏季减产率为43.5%，其余各季减产率为6.5%。此外，随着排放情景和时间的增加，这种减排率将变得更加严重，尤其是在RCP8.5中，夏季减排率高达88.9%。夏季生境变化表现出强烈的温度敏感性。的分布中心S. niphonius在 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 下将转移到更高的纬度。深度和温度是影响该物种分布的两个最重要的因素。研究结果可为了解其适应性提供基础数据。S. niphonius应对气候变化，建立弹性生态系统。