The spread of alien aquatic plants can disrupt freshwater ecosystems. Species distribution models are useful tools for managing biological invasions. This study uses MaxEnt models incorporating land cover and meteorological data to predict areas in the Kanto region that are at high risk of invasion by three alien aquatic plants (water speedwell, Veronica anagallis-aquatica, parrot’s feather Myriophyllum aquaticum, and Senegal tea plant Gymnocoronis spilanthoides). The Kanto region encompasses the Tokyo metropolitan area and Kanto plain, which is the largest plain in Japan. The potential invasion risk map shows lowland alluvial zones, especially along rivers that are at high risk of invasion by the three alien aquatic plants. The top three highest environmental variables were where the areas of rivers and lakes, Kira’s warmth index and building areas contributed toward the models. The results of the MaxEnt models are consistent with the habitat preferences of the three aquatic plant species; they typically inhabit slow-running or stagnant waters and are tolerant of eutrophication. The risk of invasion by V. anagallis-aquatica upstream tended to be higher than by M. aquaticum or G. spilanthoides because V. anagallis-aquatica can adapt to a lotic environment.

外来水生植物的传播会破坏淡水生态系统。物种分布模型是管理生物入侵的有用工具。本研究使用结合土地覆盖和气象数据的 MaxEnt 模型来预测关东地区处于被三种外来水生植物（water speedwell、Veronica anagallis-aquatica、鹦鹉的羽毛Myriophyllumaquatium和塞内加尔茶树Gymnocoronis spilanthoides ）入侵的高风险区域）。关东地区包括东京都和日本最大的平原关东平原。潜在入侵风险图显示了低地冲积带，尤其是河流沿岸，三种外来水生植物入侵的风险很高。前三个最高的环境变量是河流和湖泊的面积、基拉的温暖指数和建筑面积对模型的贡献。MaxEnt模型的结果与三种水生植物的栖息地偏好一致；它们通常栖息在缓慢流动或停滞的水域中，并且能够耐受富营养化。V. anagallis-aquatica上游入侵的风险往往高于M.aquaticum或G. spilanthoides，因为V. anagallis-aquatica可以适应剧烈的环境。