High-value target strikes–the practice of apprehending or lethally targeting high-ranking members of transnational criminal organizations–has become a frequently used tactic of U.S. and Mexican authorities to combat drug trafficking organizations. The study focuses on the unintentional outcomes of this policy by using an interrupted times-series AutoRegressive Integrative Moving Average (ARIMA) study design combined with a paired sample t-test, to analyze the effect that the arrest of Arellano Felix Organization leader, Luis Fernando Sánchez Arellano, and subsequent arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader, Joaquín Guzmán (El Chapo), had on levels of homicide in Tijuana, Mexico from 2012 to 2017. Findings revealed that the capture of both cartel leaders led to a statistically significant increase in the number of homicides in Tijuana, as the apprehension of these leaders allowed for the arrival of rival organizations in the Tijuana trafficking corridor. The appearance of competing groups in Tijuana prompted turf battles between organizations to develop.

高价值目标打击——逮捕或致命打击跨国犯罪组织高级成员的做法——已成为美国和墨西哥当局打击贩毒组织的常用策略。该研究通过使用中断的时间序列自回归综合移动平均线 (ARIMA) 研究设计结合配对样本 t 检验，重点关注该政策的意外结果，以分析逮捕 Arellano Felix 组织领导人 Luis Fernando 的影响2012 年至 2017 年，墨西哥蒂华纳的 Sánchez Arellano 以及随后逮捕锡那罗亚卡特尔领导人华金·古兹曼 (Joaquín Guzmán (El Chapo)) 的凶杀案数量达到一定水平。调查结果显示，两名卡特尔领导人的被捕导致数量显着增加蒂华纳的凶杀案，由于对这些领导人的逮捕导致敌对组织进入提华纳贩运走廊。蒂华纳竞争团体的出现促使组织之间的地盘争夺战发展。