Abstract
High-value target strikes–the practice of apprehending or lethally targeting high-ranking members of transnational criminal organizations–has become a frequently used tactic of U.S. and Mexican authorities to combat drug trafficking organizations. The study focuses on the unintentional outcomes of this policy by using an interrupted times-series AutoRegressive Integrative Moving Average (ARIMA) study design combined with a paired sample t-test, to analyze the effect that the arrest of Arellano Felix Organization leader, Luis Fernando Sánchez Arellano, and subsequent arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader, Joaquín Guzmán (El Chapo), had on levels of homicide in Tijuana, Mexico from 2012 to 2017. Findings revealed that the capture of both cartel leaders led to a statistically significant increase in the number of homicides in Tijuana, as the apprehension of these leaders allowed for the arrival of rival organizations in the Tijuana trafficking corridor. The appearance of competing groups in Tijuana prompted turf battles between organizations to develop.
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Del Rio, J. Do high value target strikes reduce cartel-related violence? An empirical assessment of crime trends in Tijuana, Mexico. Trends Organ Crim (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12117-021-09444-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12117-021-09444-9