This study explores the extent to which the frequency and lethality of terrorist attacks change after pledging allegiance to religious terrorist groups. Drawing on data from the Global Terrorism Database, the analyses specifically aim to explore whether a significant change occurred in Boko Haram`s bombing attacks after its pledge to the Islamic State in 2015. Results from our time-series analysis indicate that the frequency and lethality of Boko Haram’s bombing attacks did not change significantly in the post-pledge period. The number of bombings and casualties in these incidents did neither significantly increase nor decrease after the alliance of Boko Haram with the Islamic State. The contributions of our findings to the terrorism literature are discussed and policy implications for counterterrorism efforts are considered.

本研究探讨了在宣誓效忠宗教恐怖组织后，恐怖袭击的频率和杀伤力的变化程度。利用全球恐怖主义数据库的数据，这些分析专门旨在探讨博科圣地在 2015 年向伊斯兰国承诺后的爆炸袭击是否发生了重大变化。我们的时间序列分析结果表明，其发生的频率和杀伤力博科圣地的爆炸袭击事件在后承诺时期没有显着变化。在博科圣地与伊斯兰国结盟后，这些事件中的爆炸事件和伤亡人数既没有显着增加，也没有显着减少。讨论了我们的发现对恐怖主义文献的贡献，并考虑了对反恐工作的政策影响。