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The influence of pledging allegiance on terrorist attacks: the case of Boko Haram and Islamic State

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Abstract

This study explores the extent to which the frequency and lethality of terrorist attacks change after pledging allegiance to religious terrorist groups. Drawing on data from the Global Terrorism Database, the analyses specifically aim to explore whether a significant change occurred in Boko Haram`s bombing attacks after its pledge to the Islamic State in 2015. Results from our time-series analysis indicate that the frequency and lethality of Boko Haram’s bombing attacks did not change significantly in the post-pledge period. The number of bombings and casualties in these incidents did neither significantly increase nor decrease after the alliance of Boko Haram with the Islamic State. The contributions of our findings to the terrorism literature are discussed and policy implications for counterterrorism efforts are considered.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Human Sciences and Humanities, University of Houston-Clear Lake, 2700 Bay Area Blvd, Houston, TX, 77058, USA

    Henda Y. Hsu

  2. Department of Sociology and Criminology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA

    Ahmet Guler

  3. Department of Sociology, Criminal Justice & Criminology, The University of Scranton, Scranton, PA, USA

    Ismail Onat

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  1. Henda Y. Hsu
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  2. Ahmet Guler
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Correspondence to Henda Y. Hsu.

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Hsu, H.Y., Guler, A. & Onat, I. The influence of pledging allegiance on terrorist attacks: the case of Boko Haram and Islamic State. Secur J 35, 1308–1327 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-021-00320-3

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