Delivery of ecosystem services is strongly affected by changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) of an area. In this study, we analyze spatiotemporal changes in LULC of the rapidly changing Bagmati River Basin (BRB) of Nepal during 1988–2018 using Landsat satellite images. We also quantify carbon storage in different physiographic regions and LULC classes using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and assess economic valuation of carbon using the benefit transfer method. According to our analysis, there were increases in urban/built-up (247.5%), barren land (109.5%), shrub land (32.4%), and declines in forest cover (− 6.2%), cultivated land (− 4.1%), waterbodies (− 30.3%), sand (− 29.2%), and grass cover (− 10.6%) during the study period. As a result of these changes in LULC, carbon storage declined from 31.4 million tons year⁻¹ in 1988 (worth 157.0 million USD) to 30.8 million tons year⁻¹ (154.1 million USD) in 2018 with the total loss of 2.9 million USD. The largest decline in stored carbon was observed in Tarai and Dun valleys, from 6.8 to 6.5 million tons (− 1.4 million USD) followed by Churia, from 7.8 to 7.6 million tons (- 1.1 million USD). Increases in carbon storage were observed in urban/built-up and shrub land areas and declines in cultivated land, forest, barren land, waterbodies and grass land. The results of LULC change and estimated carbon stock in BRB provides a baseline for planners and policy makers to formulate appropriate plans to sustainably manage the region’s land cover and to mitigate carbon loss.

生态系统服务的提供受到一个地区土地利用/土地覆盖 (LULC) 变化的强烈影响。在这项研究中，我们使用 Landsat 卫星图像分析了 1988-2018 年间尼泊尔快速变化的巴格马蒂河流域 (BRB) LULC 的时空变化。我们还使用生态系统服务和权衡综合评估 (InVEST) 模型量化不同自然地理区域和 LULC 类别的碳储存，并使用利益转移方法评估碳的经济价值。根据我们的分析，城市/建成区 (247.5%)、荒地 (109.5%)、灌木地 (32.4%) 和森林覆盖率下降 (- 6.2%)、耕地 (- 4.1%) )、水体 (− 30.3%)、沙子 (− 29.2%) 和草覆盖 (− 10.6%) 在研究期间。由于 LULC 的这些变化，碳储存量从 31 下降。1988 年的^-1（价值 1.570 亿美元）至2018 年的3080 万吨年^-1（1.541 亿美元），总损失为 290 万美元。在 Tarai 和 Dun 山谷观察到储存的碳降幅最大，从 6.8 至 650 万吨（- 140 万美元），其次是 Churia，从 7.8 至 760 万吨（- 110 万美元）。城市/建成区和灌木地面积的碳储量增加，而耕地、森林、荒地、水体和草地面积减少。LULC 变化的结果和 BRB 中估算的碳储量为规划者和决策者制定适当的计划以可持续地管理该地区的土地覆盖和减轻碳损失提供了基线。