Abstract
Delivery of ecosystem services is strongly affected by changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) of an area. In this study, we analyze spatiotemporal changes in LULC of the rapidly changing Bagmati River Basin (BRB) of Nepal during 1988–2018 using Landsat satellite images. We also quantify carbon storage in different physiographic regions and LULC classes using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and assess economic valuation of carbon using the benefit transfer method. According to our analysis, there were increases in urban/built-up (247.5%), barren land (109.5%), shrub land (32.4%), and declines in forest cover (− 6.2%), cultivated land (− 4.1%), waterbodies (− 30.3%), sand (− 29.2%), and grass cover (− 10.6%) during the study period. As a result of these changes in LULC, carbon storage declined from 31.4 million tons year−1 in 1988 (worth 157.0 million USD) to 30.8 million tons year−1 (154.1 million USD) in 2018 with the total loss of 2.9 million USD. The largest decline in stored carbon was observed in Tarai and Dun valleys, from 6.8 to 6.5 million tons (− 1.4 million USD) followed by Churia, from 7.8 to 7.6 million tons (- 1.1 million USD). Increases in carbon storage were observed in urban/built-up and shrub land areas and declines in cultivated land, forest, barren land, waterbodies and grass land. The results of LULC change and estimated carbon stock in BRB provides a baseline for planners and policy makers to formulate appropriate plans to sustainably manage the region’s land cover and to mitigate carbon loss.
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The datasets generated and analyzed can be made available on special reasonable request.
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Appendices
Appendix 1 User’s accuracy, producer’s accuracy, and overall accuracy for individual LULC during 1988 and 2018
Year | 1988 | 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
LULC | UA | PA | UA | PA |
Urban/built-up | 84.4 | 85.9 | 91.1 | 92.1 |
Cultivated land | 86.5 | 83.3 | 87.8 | 86.0 |
Forest land | 88.5 | 87.6 | 92.0 | 91.1 |
Shrub land | 86.8 | 85.4 | 91.3 | 90.8 |
Barren land | 88.6 | 87.6 | 94.0 | 90.5 |
Sand area | 87.3 | 86.1 | 88.5 | 89.3 |
Waterbody | 85.9 | 90.7 | 89.4 | 94.2 |
Grass land | 86.0 | 88.4 | 90.1 | 90.5 |
OA | 87% | 91% | ||
Appendix 2 LULC change in Bagmati River Basin during 1998–2018 (area in km2 and %)
LULC | Area in km2 1988 | Area in km2 2018 | Change 1988–2018 |
|---|---|---|---|
Mid-Hill (Lesser Himalaya and Mahabharat) | |||
Urban/built-up | 47.1 | 166.7 | 119.7 |
Cultivated land | 689.1 | 589.3 | −99.7 |
Forest land | 921.6 | 912.3 | −9.3 |
Shrub land | 125.0 | 146.8 | 21.8 |
Barren land | 7.3 | 14.6 | 7.3 |
Sand area | 27.8 | 16.1 | −11.7 |
Waterbody | 19.4 | 14.3 | −5.2 |
Grass land | 25.8 | 3.0 | −22.8 |
Total | 1863.1 | 1863.1 | |
Churia (Siwalik) | |||
Urban/built-up | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
Cultivated land | 105.3 | 122.5 | 17.2 |
Forest land | 465.1 | 431.8 | −33.3 |
Shrub land | 21.4 | 47.7 | 26.3 |
Barren land | 1.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
Sand area | 53.6 | 44.6 | −9.0 |
Waterbody | 10.1 | 9.3 | −0.8 |
Grass land | 6.6 | 2.7 | −3.9 |
Total | 664.3 | 664.3 | |
Tarai and Dun Valley | |||
Urban/built-up | 6.7 | 20.2 | 13.5 |
Cultivated land | 337.5 | 373.0 | 35.6 |
Forest land | 387.5 | 359.0 | −28.5 |
Shrub land | 17.9 | 23.5 | 5.6 |
Barren land | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
Sand area | 111.0 | 75.4 | −35.5 |
Waterbody | 36.9 | 22.8 | −14.1 |
Grass land | 10.8 | 32.9 | 22.1 |
Total | 909.0 | 909.0 | |
Grand total | 3436.3 | 3436.3 | |
Appendix 3 Estimating carbon in different LULC classes within Bagmati River Basin during 1988–2018
1988 | 2018 | Change | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LULC classes | C_above | C_below | C_soil | C_dead | (Carbon in tons) | Cost of carbon in USD | C_above | C_below | C_soil | C_dead | (Carbon in tons) | Cost of carbon in USD | 1988–2018 | Change % |
Urban/built-up | 26,705.2 | 26,705.3 | 133,526.5 | 93,244.9 | 93,245 | 466,225 | 66,539.7 | 249.16 | ||||||
Cultivated land | 446,860 | 746,652 | 1,193,512 | 5,967,560 | 429,007.1 | 716,822 | 1,145,829 | 5,729,145 | −47,682.9 | −3.99 | ||||
Forest | 16,655,181 | 11,322,897 | 133,085.3 | 28,111,164 | 140,555,820 | 16,031,805 | 10,899,099 | 128,104.1 | 27,059,009 | 135,295,045 | −1,052,154.4 | −3.74 | ||
Shrub | 94,742.7 | 1,614,050.1 | 7338.1 | 1,716,130.7 | 8,580,653.5 | 123,065.6 | 2,096,562.7 | 9531.8 | 2,229,159.9 | 11,145,800 | 513,029.2 | 29.89 | ||
Barren land | 72,736.4 | 80,818.2 | 153,554.6 | 767,773 | 55,563.7 | 61,737.5 | 117,301.2 | 586,506 | −36,253.4 | −23.6 | ||||
Waterbody | 690 | 690 | 3450 | 463 | 463 | 2315 | −227 | −32.9 | ||||||
Grass | 189,794.9 | 189,794.9 | 948,974.5 | 169,630.6 | 169,630.6 | 848,153 | −20,164.3 | −10.62 | ||||||
Total | 31,391,551 | 156,957,755 | 30,814,638 | 154,073,190 | −576,913.1 | −1.83 | ||||||||
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Rijal, S., Rimal, B., Acharya, R.P. et al. Land use/land cover change and ecosystem services in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. Environ Monit Assess 193, 651 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09441-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09441-z