Abstract

Changes in the water balance components of 11 large-scale river basins due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections from five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four RCP climatic scenarios. An analysis of 20 projections of changes in climatic precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration obtained for three climatic periods of the 21st century for each river basin made it possible to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different RCP scenarios and GCMs. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected climatic values of the water balance components is nearly twice as large as the contribution of RCP scenarios in the first projected period and then slightly decreases with time.

中文翻译：

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21世纪11个大流域水量平衡成分的预测变化及其不确定性

摘要

使用陆面模型 SWAP 和来自五个全球气候模型 (GCM) 的四个 RCP 气候情景下的气象预测，模拟了 21 世纪可能因气候变化而导致的 11 个大型流域的水平衡分量的变化。对每个流域在 21 世纪三个气候时期获得的 20 次气候降水、河流径流和蒸散量变化预测的分析，可以估计它们因应用不同的 RCP 情景和 GCM 导致的不确定性。平均而言，不同 GCM 对水平衡分量预测气候值不确定性的贡献几乎是第一个预测期 RCP 情景贡献的两倍，然后随着时间的推移略有下降。