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Projected Changes in Water Balance Components of 11 Large River Basins during the 21st Century and Their Uncertainties

  • WATER RESOURCES AND THE REGIME OF WATER BODIES
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Abstract

Changes in the water balance components of 11 large-scale river basins due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections from five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four RCP climatic scenarios. An analysis of 20 projections of changes in climatic precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration obtained for three climatic periods of the 21st century for each river basin made it possible to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different RCP scenarios and GCMs. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected climatic values of the water balance components is nearly twice as large as the contribution of RCP scenarios in the first projected period and then slightly decreases with time.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We are grateful to ISI-MIP regional-scale water sector organizers for providing us with data and materials. Some river runoff data were kindly provided by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), D–56068 Koblenz, Germany.

Funding

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant no. 16-17-10039, section “Results”) and by the State budget for the WPI RAS (task no. 0147-2018-0001, state registration no. AAAA-A18-118022090056-0, section “Methodology”).

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Correspondence to O. N. Nasonova.

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Nasonova, O.N., Gusev, Y.M., Kovalev, E.E. et al. Projected Changes in Water Balance Components of 11 Large River Basins during the 21st Century and Their Uncertainties. Water Resour 48, 666–675 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807821050158

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807821050158

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