Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) near surface wind forecast sensitivity to planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme over complex terrain of Baja California Peninsula, México, is examined. Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) PBL schemes are evaluated using the Taylor diagram, mean absolute error skill score (MAESS), and mean absolute error standardized anomaly metrics. Additionally, forecasted wind ramp distribution is analyzed. YSU scheme improves forecast accuracy in winter for most of the weather stations. Meanwhile, during summer, the performance of PBL schemes varies depending on physiographical environment of the weather station site. WRF forecast tends to generate a greater number of up/down wind ramp events than observed in the range of 2 m/s. The diurnal behavior of wind speed is well reproduced by all PBL schemes; however, the wind speed variability is smoother than the observed. The ability of the ACM2 scheme to perform well in winter and summer may be related to the critical factor that determines the contribution ratio of non-local mixing to total turbulent mixing. The WRF is capable of accurately forecasting the synoptic-scale energy power spectrum in winter; however, in the mesoscale range, the simulated spectrum underestimates the energy for both seasons.

研究了墨西哥下加利福尼亚半岛复杂地形上的天气研究和预报 (WRF) 近地表风预报对行星边界层 (PBL) 方案的敏感性。延世大学 (YSU)、Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) 和非对称对流模型第 2 版 (ACM2) PBL 方案使用泰勒图、平均绝对误差技能得分 (MAESS) 和平均绝对误差标准化异常指标进行评估。此外，还分析了预测的风坡分布。YSU 方案提高了大多数气象站冬季预报的准确性。同时，在夏季，PBL 方案的性能取决于气象站站点的自然地理环境。WRF 预报倾向于产生比在 2 m/s 范围内观察到的更多的上升/下降风坡事件。所有PBL方案都很好地再现了风速的昼夜行为；然而，风速变化比观察到的更平滑。ACM2方案在冬夏两季表现良好的能力可能与决定非局部混合对总湍流混合贡献比的关键因素有关。WRF能够准确预测冬季天气尺度的能量功率谱；然而，在中尺度范围内，模拟光谱低估了两个季节的能量。WRF能够准确预测冬季天气尺度的能量功率谱；然而，在中尺度范围内，模拟光谱低估了两个季节的能量。WRF能够准确预测冬季天气尺度的能量功率谱；然而，在中尺度范围内，模拟光谱低估了两个季节的能量。