Abstract
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) near surface wind forecast sensitivity to planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme over complex terrain of Baja California Peninsula, México, is examined. Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) PBL schemes are evaluated using the Taylor diagram, mean absolute error skill score (MAESS), and mean absolute error standardized anomaly metrics. Additionally, forecasted wind ramp distribution is analyzed. YSU scheme improves forecast accuracy in winter for most of the weather stations. Meanwhile, during summer, the performance of PBL schemes varies depending on physiographical environment of the weather station site. WRF forecast tends to generate a greater number of up/down wind ramp events than observed in the range of 2 m/s. The diurnal behavior of wind speed is well reproduced by all PBL schemes; however, the wind speed variability is smoother than the observed. The ability of the ACM2 scheme to perform well in winter and summer may be related to the critical factor that determines the contribution ratio of non-local mixing to total turbulent mixing. The WRF is capable of accurately forecasting the synoptic-scale energy power spectrum in winter; however, in the mesoscale range, the simulated spectrum underestimates the energy for both seasons.
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Acknowledgments
The authors thankfully acknowledge computer resources, technical advise and support provided by Laboratorio Nacional de Supercómputo del Sureste de México (LNS), a member of the CONACYT national laboratories, with project No. 201801023n. The authors acknowledge the comments made by the anonymous reviewers that helped to improve the quality of the manuscript.
Funding
This research was funded by The National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT), grant number 473276, the first author’s PhD scholarship.
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Conceptualization, Karla Pereyra-Castro and Ernesto Caetano; methodology, Karla Pereyra.-Castro; formal analysis, Karla Pereyra-Castro; investigation, Karla Pereyra-Castro, Ernesto Caetano, and Diego Altamirano-del Razo; data curation, Karla Pereyra-Castro and Diego Altamirano-del Razo; writing—original draft preparation, Karla Pereyra-Castro and Ernesto Caetano; writing—review and editing, Ernesto Caetano; supervision, Ernesto Caetano. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
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Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang
This paper was selected from the 3rd Conference of the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (CAJG), Tunisia 2020
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Pereyra-Castro, K., Caetano, E. & Altamirano del Razo, D. WRF wind forecast over coastal complex terrain: Baja California Peninsula (Mexico) case study. Arab J Geosci 14, 1972 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08317-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08317-3