Background The article develops an eight-period game between N persons and a pharmaceutical company. The choices of a donor and Nature are parametric. Methods Persons choose between safe and risky behavior, and whether or not to buy drugs. The pharmaceutical company chooses whether or not to develop drugs. The donor chooses parametrically whether to subsidize drug purchases and drug developments. Nature chooses disease contraction, recovery, death, and virus mutation. The game is solved with backward induction. Results The conditions are specified for each of seven outcomes ranging from safe behavior to risky behavior and buying no or one or both drugs. The seven outcomes distribute themselves across three outcomes for the pharmaceutical company, which are to develop no drugs, develop one drug, and develop two drugs if the virus mutates. For these three outcomes the donor's expected utility is specified. Conclusion HIV/AIDS data is used to present a procedure for parameter estimation. The players' strategic choices are exemplified. The article shows how strategic interaction between persons and a pharmaceutical company, with parametric choices of a donor and Nature, impact whether persons choose risky or safe behavior, whether a pharmaceutical company develops no drugs or one drug, or two drugs if a virus mutates, and the impact of subsidies by a donor.

中文翻译：

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假设病毒突变，个人、制药业和捐赠者在疾病收缩和恢复方面的决定。

背景 本文开发了 N 个人和一家制药公司之间的八期博弈。捐赠者和自然的选择是参数化的。方法 人们在安全和危险行为之间做出选择，以及是否购买毒品。制药公司选择是否开发药物。捐助者以参数方式选择是否补贴药品采购和药品开发。自然选择疾病收缩、恢复、死亡和病毒突变。游戏是用反向归纳法解决的。结果 针对从安全行为到危险行为以及不购买或购买一种或两种药物的七种结果中的每一种都指定了条件。这七个结果分布在制药公司的三个结果中，即不开发药物，开发一种药物，如果病毒发生变异，则开发两种药物。对于这三个结果，指定了捐赠者的预期效用。结论 HIV/AIDS 数据用于提供参数估计程序。举例说明了玩家的战略选择。这篇文章展示了人与制药公司之间的战略互动，以及捐赠者和自然的参数选择，如何影响人们选择冒险还是安全的行为，制药公司是不开发药物还是开发一种药物，或者如果病毒发生变异，则两种药物，以及捐助者补贴的影响。