The most prominent feature of Western approaches to warfare in recent decades has been the centrality of precision-strike systems and related capabilities—most notably unmanned platforms—for delivering lethal force with ever-greater remoteness. Comparative advantages derived from this ‘remote warfare’ are waning due to competitors’ partial adoption of precision weapon systems and the development of countermeasures. Analyses by military experts and technology enthusiasts in the West propose that Artificial Intelligence (AI), properly harnessed, will soon resuscitate former advantages derived from remote warfare, which have been subject to diminishing returns. The assumptions underpinning this conclusion, however, rest on weaker ground than is claimed. First, AI boosters—unwittingly or otherwise—frequently overstate the near-term impact of AI on important aspects of remote warfare, downplaying enduring technological challenges, and overlooking vulnerabilities associated with greater reliance on AI-enabled systems. Furthermore, it is far from clear whether over the longer-term AI will enhance and entrench the central aspects of remote warfare. Indeed, the technology may lean toward methods of warfare antithetical to the Western warfare paradigm, such as mass over precision or the widespread deployment of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS).

近几十年来西方战争方法最突出的特点是精确打击系统和相关能力的中心地位——最显着的是无人平台——用于在越来越遥远的地方提供致命的力量。由于竞争者部分采用精确武器系统和反制措施的发展，这种“远程战争”产生的比较优势正在减弱。西方军事专家和技术爱好者的分析表明，如果利用得当，人工智能 (AI) 将很快恢复以前从远程战争中获得的优势，而这些优势已受到收益递减的影响。然而，支持这一结论的假设所依据的依据比所声称的要弱。第一的，人工智能助推器——不知不觉或以其他方式——经常夸大人工智能对远程战争重要方面的近期影响，淡化持久的技术挑战，并忽视与更多依赖人工智能系统相关的漏洞。此外，从长远来看，人工智能是否会增强和巩固远程战争的核心方面还远未明确。事实上，这项技术可能倾向于与西方战争范式相反的战争方法，例如大规模超过精确度或致命自主武器系统 (LAWS) 的广泛部署。从长远来看，人工智能是否会增强和巩固远程战争的核心方面还远未明确。事实上，这项技术可能倾向于与西方战争范式相反的战争方法，例如大规模超过精确度或致命自主武器系统 (LAWS) 的广泛部署。从长远来看，人工智能是否会增强和巩固远程战争的核心方面还远未明确。事实上，这项技术可能倾向于与西方战争范式相反的战争方法，例如大规模超过精确度或致命自主武器系统 (LAWS) 的广泛部署。