Abstract
The most prominent feature of Western approaches to warfare in recent decades has been the centrality of precision-strike systems and related capabilities—most notably unmanned platforms—for delivering lethal force with ever-greater remoteness. Comparative advantages derived from this ‘remote warfare’ are waning due to competitors’ partial adoption of precision weapon systems and the development of countermeasures. Analyses by military experts and technology enthusiasts in the West propose that Artificial Intelligence (AI), properly harnessed, will soon resuscitate former advantages derived from remote warfare, which have been subject to diminishing returns. The assumptions underpinning this conclusion, however, rest on weaker ground than is claimed. First, AI boosters—unwittingly or otherwise—frequently overstate the near-term impact of AI on important aspects of remote warfare, downplaying enduring technological challenges, and overlooking vulnerabilities associated with greater reliance on AI-enabled systems. Furthermore, it is far from clear whether over the longer-term AI will enhance and entrench the central aspects of remote warfare. Indeed, the technology may lean toward methods of warfare antithetical to the Western warfare paradigm, such as mass over precision or the widespread deployment of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS).
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Notes
Author’s impression from attending and participating in multiple defense industry-led events on emerging technology and future defense and security.
The ‘Second Offset’ sought ‘advanced technologies for precision attack in order for NATO to whittle down superior numbers of Soviet tanks and other conventional forces to battle-manageable levels’ (Grant 2016).
Much of the intellectual foundation for this emphasis on speed was put down by John Boyd in the latter stages of the Cold War with his OODA (observe–orient–decide–act) loop, which was a way of conceptualizing the role of tempo and speed in warfare.
While the air domain is environmentally the least complex it may increasingly become an extremely congested space through the presence of numerous small and cheap drones. I am grateful to James Rogers for making this point.
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Rossiter, A. AI-enabled remote warfare: sustaining the western Warfare paradigm?. Int Polit 60, 818–833 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-021-00337-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-021-00337-w