Abstract

Wind wave modeling (WAVEWATCH III model) is used to analyze the storm activity in the Kara Sea for the period from 1979 to 2019. The NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis data used as forcing. Simulations realized on the nonstructural grid with a resolution of 700 m to 10 km. The quality of wind wave simulation is assessed through a comparison with direct measurements and satellite data. The storm wave frequencies are analyzed separately for each year. It is found that storms with waves more than 3 m are observed on average about 30 times a year. The frequency of storms with waves more than 3–5 m increased twofold from 1979 to 2019. The increase in the storm frequency is due to a decrease in the sea ice cover extent. Analysis of the seasonal variations in storm activity shows that the largest amount of storms is observed from July to December. A strong positive trend in the frequency of storms is observed from October to December. Storms in January, February, and March have been observed since 2005 due to the absence of ice, which contributes significantly to the ultimate increase in the storm frequency.

中文翻译：

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1979-2019年喀拉海风暴活动增加：数值模拟数据

摘要

风浪模型（WAVEWATCH III模型）用于分析喀拉海1979年至2019年的风暴活动。将NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2再分析数据用作强迫。在分辨率为 700 m 到 10 km 的非结构网格上实现的模拟。通过与直接测量和卫星数据的比较来评估风波模拟的质量。每年单独分析风暴波频率。据发现，每年平均观测到波浪超过 3 m 的风暴约 30 次。从 1979 年到 2019 年，波浪超过 3-5 m 的风暴频率增加了两倍。风暴频率的增加是由于海冰覆盖范围的减少。对风暴活动季节性变化的分析表明，7 月至 12 月期间观测到的风暴数量最多。从 10 月到 12 月，观察到风暴频率呈强烈的正趋势。由于没有冰，自 2005 年以来一直观察到一月、二月和三月的风暴，这对风暴频率的最终增加有很大贡献。