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Increase in Storm Activity in the Kara Sea from 1979 to 2019: Numerical Simulation Data

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Abstract

Wind wave modeling (WAVEWATCH III model) is used to analyze the storm activity in the Kara Sea for the period from 1979 to 2019. The NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis data used as forcing. Simulations realized on the nonstructural grid with a resolution of 700 m to 10 km. The quality of wind wave simulation is assessed through a comparison with direct measurements and satellite data. The storm wave frequencies are analyzed separately for each year. It is found that storms with waves more than 3 m are observed on average about 30 times a year. The frequency of storms with waves more than 3–5 m increased twofold from 1979 to 2019. The increase in the storm frequency is due to a decrease in the sea ice cover extent. Analysis of the seasonal variations in storm activity shows that the largest amount of storms is observed from July to December. A strong positive trend in the frequency of storms is observed from October to December. Storms in January, February, and March have been observed since 2005 due to the absence of ice, which contributes significantly to the ultimate increase in the storm frequency.

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Funding

The work of S.A. Myslenkov and V.S. Platonov was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project no. 18-05-60147). The work of K.P. Silvestrova was carried out under Government Program no. 0128-2021-0002. The work of S.A. Dobrolyubov was supported by the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of Moscow State University “The Future of the Planet and Global Environmental Changes.”

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    S. A. Myslenkov, V. S. Platonov &  S. A. Dobrolyubov

  2. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997, Moscow, Russia

    S. A. Myslenkov & K. P. Silvestrova

  3. Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, 123242, Moscow, Russia

    S. A. Myslenkov

Authors
  1. S. A. Myslenkov
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  2. V. S. Platonov
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  3. K. P. Silvestrova
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  4. S. A. Dobrolyubov
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Correspondence to S. A. Myslenkov.

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Translated by B. Shubik

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Myslenkov, S.A., Platonov, V.S., Silvestrova, K.P. et al. Increase in Storm Activity in the Kara Sea from 1979 to 2019: Numerical Simulation Data. Dokl. Earth Sc. 498, 502–508 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X2106012X

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X2106012X

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