The government of the Republic of Korea has set the minimum service level of bridges as Grade B and has defined the risk management level as higher than 95 percent. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to understand the deterioration process and risk of deficiencies for bridges, and these characteristics should be reflected in the management strategy and budget investment plan. To this end, this study developed deterioration models according to the bridge ages to define heterogeneous deterioration characteristics of aging bridges. To build the deterioration models, this study collected and processed bridge diagnosis data for 10 years, and a Bayesian Markov mixed hazard model was introduced. Analysis results showed that the life expectancy of the aging bridges over 30 years was remarkably short, 1/3 of the average life expectancy of the network, and the probability of failure was seven times higher than that of new bridges within 10 years after completion. In addition, the optimal maintenance demand that satisfies a risk management level of 95 percent illustrated that 44.7 percent of the bridges at Grade C should be continuously maintained annually. The results showed that it is urgent to prepare a preemptive response strategy and budget-securing plan for aging bridges, which will rapidly increase to 39% in the next 10 years and 76% in 20 years.

中文翻译：

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交通资产管理老化桥梁的异质性劣化过程与缺陷风险

韩国政府将桥梁的最低服务水平定为 B 级，并将风险管理水平定义为高于 95%。为实现这一目标，需要了解桥梁的劣化过程和缺陷风险，并将这些特征体现在管理策略和预算投资计划中。为此，本研究根据桥梁年龄开发了老化模型，以定义老化桥梁的异质老化特征。为了建立退化模型，本研究收集和处理了10年的桥梁诊断数据，并引入了贝叶斯马尔可夫混合风险模型。分析结果表明，30年以上老化桥梁的预期寿命显着缩短，仅为网络平均预期寿命的1/3，建成后 10 年内发生故障的概率是新建桥梁的 7 倍。此外，满足 95% 风险管理水平的最佳维护需求表明，每年有 44.7% 的 C 级桥梁需要持续维护。结果表明，为老化桥梁制定先发制人的响应策略和预算保障计划迫在眉睫，未来10年将迅速增加到39%，20年将增加到76%。