Climate change is anticipated to affect the degradation of the building materials in cultural heritage sites and buildings. For the aim of taking the necessary preventive measures, studies need to be carried out with the utmost possible precision regarding the building materials of each monument and the microclimate to which they are exposed. Within the present study, a methodology to investigate the mold risk of timber buildings is presented and applied in two historic constructions. The two case studies are located in Vestfold, Norway. Proper material properties are selected for the building elements by leveraging material properties from existing databases, measurements, and simulations of the hygrothermal performance of selected building components. Data from the REMO2015 driven by the global model MPI-ESM-LR are used in order to account for past, present, and future climate conditions. In addition, climate data from ERA5 reanalysis are used in order to assess the accuracy the MPI-ES-LR_REMO2015 model results. Whole building hygrothermal simulations are employed to calculate the temperature and the relative humidity on the timber surfaces. The transient hygrothermal condition and certain characteristics of the timber surfaces are used as inputs in the updated VTT mold model in order to predict the mold risk of certain building elements. Results show a significant increase of the mold risk of the untreated timber surfaces due to climate change. The treated surfaces have no mold risk at all. It is also observed that the most significant increase of the mold risk occurs in the north-oriented and the horizontal surfaces. It is underlined that the mold risk of the timber elements is overestimated by the MPI-ES-LR_REMO2015 model compared to ERA5 reanalysis. The importance of considering the surface temperature and humidity, and not the atmospheric temperature and humidity as boundary conditions in the mold growth model is also investigated and highlighted.

中文翻译：

---

评估气候变化对历史木结构真菌定植影响的建模方法

预计气候变化会影响文化遗产地和建筑物中建筑材料的退化。为了采取必要的预防措施，需要尽可能精确地研究每个纪念碑的建筑材料及其所处的小气候。在本研究中，介绍了一种调查木结构建筑霉菌风险的方法，并将其应用于两个历史建筑。这两个案例研究位于挪威的 Vestfold。通过利用现有数据库中的材料属性、测量值和所选建筑组件的湿热性能模拟，为建筑元素选择合适的材料属性。由全球模型 MPI-ESM-LR 驱动的 REMO2015 数据用于解释过去、现在和未来的气候条件。此外，还使用了 ERA5 再分析的气候数据来评估 MPI-ES-LR_REMO2015 模型结果的准确性。整个建筑的湿热模拟被用来计算木材表面的温度和相对湿度。木材表面的瞬态湿热条件和某些特性被用作更新的 VTT 模具模型的输入，以预测某些建筑元素的模具风险。结果表明，由于气候变化，未经处理的木材表面发霉的风险显着增加。处理过的表面完全没有霉菌风险。还观察到，最显着的霉菌风险增加发生在北向和水平表面。需要强调的是，与 ERA5 再分析相比，MPI-ES-LR_REMO2015 模型高估了木材构件的霉菌风险。还研究并强调了在霉菌生长模型中考虑表面温度和湿度而不是大气温度和湿度作为边界条件的重要性。