Three seismic gaps lie along the Pacific Coast of Mexico, the Tehuantepec, Guerrero, and Colima–Jalisco gaps. In the Tehuantepec seismic gap, there has not been a \(M>7\) earthquake since 1902 until the \(M_{w}=8.2\) in 2017 which was an intraplate event. Furthermore, there has not been significant seismic activity in the Guerrero gap for over fifty years; therefore, it is considered as potentially likely to produce a major event. Based on historical seismicity and the National Seismological Service of Mexico’s earthquakes catalog, the last major earthquake in the Colima–Jalisco gap struck in 1995 with \(M_{w}=8.0\). To better understand the tsunami hazards due to the generation of near-field tsunamis in Mexico, in this work we characterize hypothetical events of magnitudes \(M_{w}=8.0\), \(M_{w}=8.2\), and \(M_{w}=8.2\) in the Tehuantepec, Guerrero, and Colima–Jalisco gaps, respectively. We generated 99 earthquakes with stochastic \(k^{-2}\) finite fault slip distributions and one earthquake with uniform slip distribution at each seismic gap. The non-planar geometry of the megathrust for each rupture area was taken into account. For each seismic gap, we compute the vertical co-seismic displacement by adding up the contribution from all point sources distributed over a grid mesh on each of the faults. Under the passive tsunami generation assumption, we simulated the tsunami wave-field propagation to obtain the coastal amplitude along the Pacific coast of Mexico. The numerical results show likely maximum peak amplitudes of \(\sim 8\) m, \(\sim 14\) m, and \(\sim 15\) m, in Tehuantepec, Guerrero, and Colima–Jalisco gaps, respectively. The uniform slip distribution assumption over stochastic scenarios shows an average underestimation factor of 1.3 for the three seismic gaps. While our computations were carried out carefully and accurately, our models have limitations. Thus, our results cannot be used as an authoritative tsunami hazard assessment.

三个地震间隙位于墨西哥太平洋沿岸，即特万特佩克、格雷罗和科利马-哈利斯科间隙。在特万特佩克地震间隙，自1902年以来一直没有发生过\(M>7\)地震，直到2017年\(M_{w}=8.2\)是一次板内事件。此外，格雷罗峡谷五十多年来没有发生过重大的地震活动；因此，它被认为有可能产生重大事件。根据历史地震活动和墨西哥国家地震局的地震目录，科利马-哈利斯科裂口的最后一次大地震发生在 1995 年，\(M_{w}=8.0\). 为了更好地了解由于墨西哥近场海啸产生而造成的海啸危害，在这项工作中，我们描述了震级为\(M_{w}=8.0\)、\(M_{w}=8.2\)和\(M_{w}=8.2\) 的假设事件\(M_{w}=8.2\) 分别位于 Tehuantepec、Guerrero 和 Colima-Jalisco 间隙中。我们随机生成了 99 次地震\(k^{-2}\)有限断层滑动分布和在每个地震间隙具有均匀滑动分布的一次地震。考虑了每个破裂区域的巨型推力的非平面几何形状。对于每个地震间隙，我们通过将分布在每个断层上的网格网格上的所有点源的贡献相加来计算垂直同震位移。在被动海啸发生假设下，我们模拟海啸波场传播以获得墨西哥太平洋沿岸的沿海振幅。数值结果显示\(\sim 8\) m、\(\sim 14\) m 和\(\sim 15\) 的可能最大峰值幅度m，分别位于 Tehuantepec、Guerrero 和 Colima-Jalisco 间隙。随机情景下的均匀滑动分布假设显示三个地震间隙的平均低估因子为 1.3。虽然我们的计算是仔细准确地进行的，但我们的模型有局限性。因此，我们的结果不能用作权威的海啸危害评估。