A synthetic seismic catalog assists not only in reducing the uncertainties in computations of seismic hazard, but also in simulating the future seismic events, which, if modeled accordingly, provides a forecast model. The seismicity forecast provides additional time-dependent information that may complement the seismic hazard. Within this context, in an attempt to generate a synthetic catalog and simulate future seismicity at the same time, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques are employed. The temporal distribution of earthquakes is modeled through hidden Markov model (HMM) and periods with different inter-event time distributions are determined, which are then assigned with different states. Along with the global magnitude and spatial distribution, the inter-event time distribution for each state is used to simulate future events with magnitude, occurrence location, and time assigned accordingly. In the end, a synthetic catalog is generated which indeed is a detailed forecast as well.

合成地震目录不仅有助于减少地震危险性计算的不确定性，而且有助于模拟未来的地震事件，如果相应地建模，则提供预测模型。地震活动性预测提供了额外的时间相关信息，可以补充地震危险。在此背景下，为了同时生成合成目录并模拟未来的地震活动，采用了马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗 (MCMC) 模拟技术。通过隐马尔可夫模型（HMM）对地震的时间分布进行建模，并确定具有不同事件间时间分布的周期，然后分配不同的状态。随着全球规模和空间分布，每个状态的事件间时间分布用于模拟具有相应分配的幅度、发生位置和时间的未来事件。最后，生成一个合成目录，它确实是一个详细的预测。