Abstract

The possible changes in water availability (aridity) to grain crops and their yields in the Crimean steppe in the 21st century are analyzed using the earlier developed MULCH model (simulating the heat and water exchange in the soil–mulch cover–vegetation–near-surface atmosphere system) and the projected changes in meteorological characteristics simulated by the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models for the RCP climate change scenarios. It is shown that the annual dynamics of the climatic values of available water storage, water availability to grain crops, and their yields in the Crimean steppe will remain almost unchanged by the end of the 21st century. The factors underlying this situation are analyzed; the main of them is the preserved level of precipitation in the 21st century. In this regard, additional measures for adaptation of agriculture to the consequences of global climate change will not be required in this region. On the other hand, the effect of the anthropogenic factor appearing as an increase in the demands of population under limited resources of the biosphere will require a transfer of agriculture to the green farming practice, involving no-till technologies, in agricultural ecosystems, including the agrocenoses of the steppe Crimea.

中文翻译：

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21世纪草原克里米亚小麦作物水分利用变化的情景预测及提高耕作效率的措施。

摘要

使用较早开发的MULCH模型（模拟了土壤-覆盖物-植被-近地表中的热和水交换），分析了21世纪克里米亚草原粮食作物的可用水（干旱）及其产量的可能变化。大气系统）以及由RCP气候变化情景的大气-海洋总环流模型模拟的预计气象特征变化。结果表明，到21世纪末，克里米亚草原的可用储水量，谷物作物的可用水量和单产的气候值的年度动态将几乎保持不变。分析了造成这种情况的因素；其中主要是21世纪的降水保持水平。在这方面，该区域将不需要采取其他措施使农业适应全球气候变化的后果。另一方面，在生物圈资源有限的情况下，人为因素的影响随着人口需求的增加而出现，这将需要农业向包括生态系统在内的农业生态系统的绿色耕作实践转移，其中涉及免耕技术。克里米亚草原的农作物。