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Scenario Projections of the Changes in Water Availability to Wheat Crops in the Steppe Crimea in the 21st Century and Some Measures Increasing the Efficiency of Its Cultivation

  • AGRICULTURAL CHEMISTRY AND SOIL FERTILITY
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Abstract

The possible changes in water availability (aridity) to grain crops and their yields in the Crimean steppe in the 21st century are analyzed using the earlier developed MULCH model (simulating the heat and water exchange in the soil–mulch cover–vegetation–near-surface atmosphere system) and the projected changes in meteorological characteristics simulated by the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models for the RCP climate change scenarios. It is shown that the annual dynamics of the climatic values of available water storage, water availability to grain crops, and their yields in the Crimean steppe will remain almost unchanged by the end of the 21st century. The factors underlying this situation are analyzed; the main of them is the preserved level of precipitation in the 21st century. In this regard, additional measures for adaptation of agriculture to the consequences of global climate change will not be required in this region. On the other hand, the effect of the anthropogenic factor appearing as an increase in the demands of population under limited resources of the biosphere will require a transfer of agriculture to the green farming practice, involving no-till technologies, in agricultural ecosystems, including the agrocenoses of the steppe Crimea.

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Funding

The work was supported by the state budget for the Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences (task no. 0147-2018-0001; state registration no. AAAA-A18-118022090056-0; sections “Projections of the Water Availability to Wheat Crops in the Steppe Crimea in the 21st Century” and “Results and Discussion” and task no. 0126-2021-0001; state registration no. 121040700170-9; sections “Objects and Methods” and “Selection of Optimal AOGCMs for Projections”).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, 119333, Moscow, Russia

    Ye. M. Gusev, L. Ya. Dzhogan, O. N. Nasonova & E. E. Kovalev

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  1. Ye. M. Gusev
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  2. L. Ya. Dzhogan
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  3. O. N. Nasonova
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  4. E. E. Kovalev
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Correspondence to Ye. M. Gusev.

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Translated by G. Chirikova

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Gusev, Y.M., Dzhogan, L.Y., Nasonova, O.N. et al. Scenario Projections of the Changes in Water Availability to Wheat Crops in the Steppe Crimea in the 21st Century and Some Measures Increasing the Efficiency of Its Cultivation. Eurasian Soil Sc. 54, 763–771 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1064229321050100

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