This paper examines the impact of uncertainties in the future trends of mortality on annuity values in Singapore's compulsory purchase market. We document persistent population mortality improvement trends over the past few decades, which underscores the importance of longevity risk in this market. Using the money's worth framework, we find that the life annuities delivered expected payouts valued at 1.019–1.185 (0.973–1.170) per dollar of annuity premium for males (females). Even in a low mortality improvement scenario, the annuities provide an expected value exceeding 0.950. This suggests that participants in the national annuity pool have access to attractively priced annuities, regardless of sex, product, and premium invested.

本文研究了未来死亡率趋势的不确定性对新加坡强制购买市场年金价值的影响。我们记录了过去几十年人口死亡率持续改善的趋势，这强调了长寿风险在这个市场中的重要性。使用货币价值框架，我们发现，男性（女性）每 1 美元年金保费的人寿年金预期支付价值为 1.019-1.185（0.973-1.170）。即使在低死亡率改善方案中，年金提供的预期值也超过 0.950。这表明，无论性别、产品和投资的保费如何，国家年金池的参与者都可以获得价格诱人的年金。