Abstract

A method to forecast orographic turbulence basing on the COSMO-Ru7 numerical model output data is presented. The calculation algorithm represents the critical amplitude approach for gravity waves and allows identifying zones of mountain wave breaking that generate turbulence. Its intensity is estimated through the wave drag value. The calculation is based on the model data for the territory of European Russia for April–September 2019. Its results obtained from forecast data are in a good agreement with those from initial model data for the forecast time. The turbulent zones are more intense at night than in the daytime and are situated over obstacles (for example, over the Crimean and Ural mountains) and on their lee slopes, in accordance with the physics of the phenomenon.

中文翻译：

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基于数值模型输出数据的地形湍流预测

摘要

提出了一种基于COSMO-Ru7数值模型输出数据的地形湍流预测方法。该计算算法代表了重力波的临界振幅方法，并允许识别产生湍流的山波破裂区域。其强度是通过波浪阻力值估算的。该计算基于2019年4月至9月在欧洲俄罗斯领土上的模型数据。从预测数据获得的结果与从预测时间的初始模型数据得出的结果非常一致。根据现象的物理原理，晚上的湍流区比白天的湍流区更强烈，并且位于障碍物上方（例如，在克里米亚和乌拉尔山脉上方）及其背风斜坡上。