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Orographic Turbulence Forecasting from Numerical Model Output Data

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Abstract

A method to forecast orographic turbulence basing on the COSMO-Ru7 numerical model output data is presented. The calculation algorithm represents the critical amplitude approach for gravity waves and allows identifying zones of mountain wave breaking that generate turbulence. Its intensity is estimated through the wave drag value. The calculation is based on the model data for the territory of European Russia for April–September 2019. Its results obtained from forecast data are in a good agreement with those from initial model data for the forecast time. The turbulent zones are more intense at night than in the daytime and are situated over obstacles (for example, over the Crimean and Ural mountains) and on their lee slopes, in accordance with the physics of the phenomenon.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, 123242, Moscow, Russia

    N. P. Shakina, E. N. Skriptunova & A. A. Zav’yalova

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  1. N. P. Shakina
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  2. E. N. Skriptunova
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  3. A. A. Zav’yalova
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Correspondence to N. P. Shakina.

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Russian Text ©The Author(s), 2021, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2021, No. 1, pp. 40-52.

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Shakina, N.P., Skriptunova, E.N. & Zav’yalova, A.A. Orographic Turbulence Forecasting from Numerical Model Output Data. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 46, 28–36 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373921010040

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