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A Mathematical Model of the Tuberculosis Epidemic
Acta Biotheoretica ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-20 , DOI: 10.1007/s10441-020-09406-8
Ally Yeketi Ayinla 1, 2 , Wan Ainun Mior Othman 1 , Musa Rabiu 3
Affiliation  

Tuberculosis has continued to retain its title as “the captain among these men of death”. This is evident as it is the leading cause of death globally from a single infectious agent. TB as it is fondly called has become a major threat to the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDG) and hence require inputs from different research disciplines. This work presents a mathematical model of tuberculosis. A compartmental model of seven classes was used in the model formulation comprising of the susceptible S, vaccinated V, exposed E, undiagnosed infectious I1, diagnosed infectious I2, treated T and recovered R. The stability analysis of the model was established as well as the condition for the model to undergo backward bifurcation. With the existence of backward bifurcation, keeping the basic reproduction number less than unity \(({R_{0}}<1)\) is no more sufficient to keep TB out of the community. Hence, it is shown by the analysis that vaccination program, diagnosis and treatment helps to control the TB dynamics. In furtherance to that, it is shown that preference should be given to diagnosis over treatment as diagnosis precedes treatment. It is as well shown that at lower vaccination rate (0–20%), TB would still be endemic in the population. As such, high vaccination rate is required to send TB out of the community.



中文翻译:

结核病流行的数学模型

结核病一直保持着“这些死亡之人中的首领”的称号。这是显而易见的,因为它是全球单一传染源导致死亡的主要原因。人们亲切地称结核病已成为实现可持续发展目标 (SDG) 的主要威胁,因此需要来自不同研究学科的投入。这项工作提出了结核病的数学模型。七个类别的区室模型用于模型制定,包括易感 S、接种 V、暴露 E、未诊断感染I 1、诊断感染I 2、治疗T并恢复R。建立了模型的稳定性分析以及模型发生后向分岔的条件。由于存在后向分叉,保持基本再生数小于 1 \(({R_{0}}<1)\)不足以将 TB 排除在社区之外。因此,分析表明疫苗接种计划、诊断和治疗有助于控制结核病动态。此外,由于诊断先于治疗,因此应优先考虑诊断而不是治疗。还表明,在较低的疫苗接种率(0-20%)下,结核病仍会在人群中流行。因此,需要高疫苗接种率才能将结核病送出社区。

更新日期:2021-04-20
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