Ensemble numerical experiments for winter seasons of 1980–2014 were carried out with the use of the mathematical climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) of the Russian Academy of Sciences developed initially for multi-year climate forecasts. Based on the results obtained in this research, a qualitative assessment of the reproduction of the North Atlantic (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA) oscillation indiceswas obtained. It was shown that the INM-CM5-0 climate model has a very high predictability of the winter NAO index and one, but not unique reason for this is the predictability of the stratospheric variability in the INM RAS model. The analysis of the quality of reproduction of the PNA index on a seasonal time scale for the INM-CM5-0 model has shown an acceptable result.

中文翻译：

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基于INM RAS气候模型的季节性回顾性预测，对平流层变化和气候指数的可预测性进行分析

使用最初为多年气候预报而开发的俄罗斯科学院数值数学研究所（INM）的数学气候模型，对1980-2014年冬季的整体数值实验进行了研究。根据这项研究获得的结果，获得了对北大西洋（NAO）和太平洋-北美（PNA）振荡指数的繁殖的定性评估。结果表明，INM-CM5-0气候模式对冬季NAO指数具有很高的可预测性，但并非唯一的原因是INM RAS模型中平流层变化的可预测性。对于INM-CM5-0模型，按季节时间尺度对PNA指数的再现质量进行分析已显示出可接受的结果。