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Large-scale, multi-year, phenology modelling of forest insects in Pinus radiata plantations
Journal of Pest Science ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s10340-021-01328-9
S. M. Pawson , J. L. Kerr , M. O. Kimberley , N. Meurisse , C. Somchit , C. W. Wardhaugh

Ecologically and economically harmful wood borers and bark beetles, which have the capacity to expand geographically through the international log trade, require mitigations to prevent their spread. Detailed phenological knowledge of these pests across the wood-product supply chain can support systems approaches to phytosanitary risk management. Forest insect activity from 3.5 years of monthly, fortnightly, and daily sampling in recent clearfells from eight Pinus radiata plantation regions throughout New Zealand is presented. Phenology varied regionally with some species absent from specific regions. Insect activity declined with postharvest duration to a hypothesised background activity level that may be determined by landscape dispersal processes. Maximum temperature was the strongest predictor of flight activity with a 15 °C threshold that increased the probability of flight. Probability of a flight event was calculated for each species at monthly, fortnightly, and daily periods. Although wintertime activity was low, operationally effective temporal periods of low pest prevalence could not be defined on a monthly basis. Assurance of temporal periods of low pest prevalence as part of a systems approach will require additional supporting evidence of the relationship between forecast weather on short temporal scales (days), the probability of flight, and the relationship between low-level flight activity and the risk of wood product infestation by dispersing insects.



中文翻译:

辐射松人工林中森林昆虫的大型,多年期物候模型

具有生态和经济危害的木bore和树皮甲虫有能力通过国际原木贸易在地理上扩大,因此需要缓解以防止其扩散。在整个木制品供应链中,对这些害虫的详细物候学知识可以为植物检疫风险管理的系统方法提供支持。来自八个松树辐射的最近清除季节的3.5年每月,每两周和每天采样的森林昆虫活动介绍了整个新西兰的人工林地区。物候学在区域上有所不同,某些物种不在特定区域。昆虫的活动随着收获后持续时间的减少而下降到假设的背景活动水平,该水平可能由景观散布过程决定。最高温度是飞行活动的最强预测因子,阈值15°C会增加飞行的可能性。计算每个物种在每月,每两周和每天的一次飞行事件的概率。尽管冬季活动较少,但无法每月确定有害生物低发生率的有效运行时间。

更新日期:2021-04-09
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