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Large-scale, multi-year, phenology modelling of forest insects in Pinus radiata plantations

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Abstract

Ecologically and economically harmful wood borers and bark beetles, which have the capacity to expand geographically through the international log trade, require mitigations to prevent their spread. Detailed phenological knowledge of these pests across the wood-product supply chain can support systems approaches to phytosanitary risk management. Forest insect activity from 3.5 years of monthly, fortnightly, and daily sampling in recent clearfells from eight Pinus radiata plantation regions throughout New Zealand is presented. Phenology varied regionally with some species absent from specific regions. Insect activity declined with postharvest duration to a hypothesised background activity level that may be determined by landscape dispersal processes. Maximum temperature was the strongest predictor of flight activity with a 15 °C threshold that increased the probability of flight. Probability of a flight event was calculated for each species at monthly, fortnightly, and daily periods. Although wintertime activity was low, operationally effective temporal periods of low pest prevalence could not be defined on a monthly basis. Assurance of temporal periods of low pest prevalence as part of a systems approach will require additional supporting evidence of the relationship between forecast weather on short temporal scales (days), the probability of flight, and the relationship between low-level flight activity and the risk of wood product infestation by dispersing insects.

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Availability of data and materials

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank participating forestry companies (Hancock Forest Management, Kaingaroa Timberlands, Rayonier|Matariki, Nelson Forests, Ernslaw One, and PF Olsen Ltd). Field technical support by Brooke O’Connor, Liam Wright, Tia Uaea, Andrew Pugh, Mark West, Dean Satchell, Jenny Dymock, and Gary Squires. Insect identification support from Andre van Haandel, Orla Harris, Caitlan Penny, Carolina Gous, and Lydia Hale.

Funding

The research was funded by the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (CXO41204) and Stakeholder in Methyl Bromide Reduction Inc.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Scion, 10 Kyle Street, Riccarton, Christchurch, New Zealand

    S. M. Pawson & J. L. Kerr

  2. Scion, 49 Sala Street, Rotorua, New Zealand

    M. O. Kimberley, N. Meurisse, C. Somchit & C. W. Wardhaugh

  3. School of Forestry, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

    S. M. Pawson

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  1. S. M. Pawson
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Correspondence to S. M. Pawson.

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Pawson, S.M., Kerr, J.L., Kimberley, M.O. et al. Large-scale, multi-year, phenology modelling of forest insects in Pinus radiata plantations. J Pest Sci 94, 1375–1392 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10340-021-01328-9

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