Abstract

The anomalous increase in the area of the 23rd solar cycle detected by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) was a precursor of failure of the 11-year cyclicity: in accordance with the author’s hypothesis about the invariant of the 22-year cycle, an increase in the area of the 23rd cycle was followed by a decrease in the area (energy intensity) of the next 24th cycle. A decrease in energy intensity is accompanied by a decrease (relative variation) in the luminosity of the Sun, which in the 24th cycle has decreased to the level of the average value of the three previous cycles, i.e., almost twice. If the invariant of the 22-year cycle is preserved, the restoration of the 11-year cyclicity in the 25th cycle should be expected. If the invariant of the 22-year cycle is violated, the level of the GCR radiation background at the maximum of the forthcoming 25th cycle (from 2024 to 2025) should not be lower than the background radiation level at the maximum of the 24th cycle (2014). In this case, the state of the 23rd–24th–25th cycle unusual failure will change from local to global.

中文翻译：

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当前11年太阳周期异常异常状态从本地到全球的可能变化

摘要

银河宇宙射线（GCR）探测到的第23个太阳周期的面积异常增加是11年周期失败的先兆：根据作者关于22年周期不变的假设，在第23个周期的面积之后，下一个第24个周期的面积（能量强度）减小。能量强度的降低伴随着太阳光度的降低（相对变化），该光度在第24个循环中已减小到前三个循环的平均值的水平，即几乎两倍。如果保留了22年周期的不变性，则应该期望在第25个周期中恢复11年周期。如果违反了22年周期的不变式，在接下来的第25个周期（从2024年到2025年）的最大值时，GCR辐射本底水平不应低于在第24个周期（2014年）的最大值时的本底辐射水平。在这种情况下，第23–24–25th周期异常故障的状态将从本地更改为全局。