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On the Probable Change of the Status of the Current Unusual Failure of 11-Year Solar Cyclicity from Local to Global

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Abstract

The anomalous increase in the area of the 23rd solar cycle detected by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) was a precursor of failure of the 11-year cyclicity: in accordance with the author’s hypothesis about the invariant of the 22-year cycle, an increase in the area of the 23rd cycle was followed by a decrease in the area (energy intensity) of the next 24th cycle. A decrease in energy intensity is accompanied by a decrease (relative variation) in the luminosity of the Sun, which in the 24th cycle has decreased to the level of the average value of the three previous cycles, i.e., almost twice. If the invariant of the 22-year cycle is preserved, the restoration of the 11-year cyclicity in the 25th cycle should be expected. If the invariant of the 22-year cycle is violated, the level of the GCR radiation background at the maximum of the forthcoming 25th cycle (from 2024 to 2025) should not be lower than the background radiation level at the maximum of the 24th cycle (2014). In this case, the state of the 23rd–24th–25th cycle unusual failure will change from local to global.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author is grateful to V.V. Kozlov for the development, creation, and software support of a robotic expert system for forecasting and diagnosing geoeffective space weather events in the online Cyber-FORSHOCK system (http://www.forshock.ru/pred.html) using 5-min data from the European Cosmic Ray Database.

The author also expresses his sincere appreciation and gratitude to I. Usoskin, University of Oulu, Sodankila Geophysical Observatory (Finland, http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/), for kindly provided the conditioned 5-min measurement data of the neutron monitor at the Oulu station over a long period of time.

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  1. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 677027, Yakutsk, Russia

    V. I. Kozlov

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  1. V. I. Kozlov
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Correspondence to V. I. Kozlov.

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Translated by N. Topchiev

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Kozlov, V.I. On the Probable Change of the Status of the Current Unusual Failure of 11-Year Solar Cyclicity from Local to Global. Cosmic Res 59, 71–79 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952521020040

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