Seasonality influences the abundance and activity of forest insects. Harvesting during periods of reduced activity could minimise colonisation risk on logs and reduce the need for phytosanitary treatments. We describe the winter colonisation dynamics of Pinus radiata logs in operational harvest sites in New Zealand and assess the probability of log colonisation as a function of captures in flight interception traps. After 15 days, 3% and 1% of logs were colonised by Hylastes ater and Hylurgus ligniperda (Coleoptera: Scolytinae), respectively, and 1% by Xenocnema spinipes (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). The same three species were captured in traps. Our observations showed that logs exposed for ≥ 2 weeks are predicted to have a more than 1% probability of bark beetle colonisation, whereas logs removed from forests within 24 or 48 h had predicted colonisation rates of 0.13% and 0.26%, respectively. A positive relationship between trap capture and log colonisation was also observed. Average catches of < 1 bark beetle per trap, three bark beetles per trap or ten bark beetles per trap equated to estimated log colonisation rates of < 10%, 14–98% or > 98% log colonisation. A positive relationship was also shown between log colonisation rates and temperature. A 12.3 °C temperature threshold predicted colonisation rates of 5, 50 and 95% with thermal sums of 10, 20 and 30 degree-hours, respectively. Models based on exposure time, trap catches, or environmental factors can estimate seasonal probability of insect colonisation, which aids identification of periods of low pest pressure when treatments could be avoided or reduced.

季节性会影响森林昆虫的丰度和活动。活动减少期间的收获可将原木上的定殖风险降到最低，并减少对植物检疫处理的需求。我们描述了新西兰可操作采伐场中辐射松原木的冬季定居动态，并评估了原木定植的概率与飞行拦截陷阱中捕获量的函数关系。15天后，分别有3％和1％的原木被Hylastes ater和Hylurgus ligniperda（鞘翅目：Scolytinae）所定居，而1％的原木被Xenocnema spinipes所定居。（鞘翅目：Curculionidae）。在陷阱中捕获了相同的三个物种。我们的观察结果表明，暴露≥2周的原木预计有超过1％的树皮甲虫定植的可能性，而在24或48小时内从森林中移走的原木的定殖率分别为0.13％和0.26％。陷阱捕获与原木定殖之间也存在正相关关系。每个陷阱的平均捕获量＜1个树皮甲虫，每个陷阱的3个树皮甲虫或每个陷阱的10个树皮甲虫，等于估计的原木定殖率＜10％，14–98％或> 98％的原木定殖。对数定殖率与温度之间也显示出正相关。12.3°C的温度阈值预测的定居率为5、50和95％，热量总和分别为10、20和30度时。