Aquaculture managers and industry must take into account the impact of climate change on production and environmental quality to ensure that sector growth is sustainable over the coming decades, a key requirement for food security. The potential effects of climate change on aquaculture range from changes to production capacity in existing cultivation areas to changes in the areas themselves, which may become unsuitable for particular species, but also suitable for new species. The prediction of where and how such changes may occur is challenging, not least because the cultivated species may themselves exhibit plasticity, which makes it difficult to forecast the degree to which different locations and culture types may be affected. This work presents a modelling approach used to predict the potential effects of climate change on aquaculture, considering six key finfish and shellfish species of economic importance in Europe: Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas), blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis). The focus is on effects on physiology, growth performance and environmental footprint, and the resultant economic impact at the farm scale. Climate projections for present-day conditions; mid-century (2040–2060) and end-of-century (2080–2100) were extracted from regionally downscaled global climate models and used to force bioenergetic models. For each of those time periods, two different carbon concentration scenarios were considered: a moderate situation (IPCC RCP 4.5) and an extreme situation (IPCC RCP 8.5). Projected temperature changes will have variable effects on growth depending on the species and geographic region. From the case studies analysed, gilthead bream farmed in sea cages in the western Mediterranean was the most vulnerable, whereas offshore-suspended mussel culture in SW Portugal was least affected. Most of the marine finfish simulated were projected to have decreased feeding efficiency in both mid-century and end-of-century climate scenarios. Bivalve shellfish showed a decreasing trend with respect to most productivity parameters as climate change progresses, under both emission scenarios. As a general trend across species and regions, economic uncertainty is expected to increase under all future projections.

水产养殖管理者和产业必须考虑到气候变化对生产和环境质量的影响，以确保该部门在未来几十年中可持续增长，这是粮食安全的一项关键要求。气候变化对水产养殖的潜在影响范围从现有种植区的生产能力变化到区域本身的变化，这可能不适合特定物种，但也适用于新物种。对这种变化可能发生在哪里以及如何发生的预测具有挑战性，尤其是因为耕种本身可能具有可塑性，这使得难以预测不同位置和文化类型可能受到的影响。这项工作提出了一种建模方法，用于预测气候变化对水产养殖的潜在影响，鲑（Salmo salar），金头鲷（Sparus aurata），鲈鱼（Dicentrarchus labrax），太平洋牡蛎（Crassostrea gigas），蓝贻贝（Mytilus edulis）和地中海贻贝（Mytilus galloprovincialis）。重点是对生理，生长性能和环境足迹的影响，以及由此产生的对农场规模的经济影响。当前状况的气候预测；本世纪中叶（2040年至2060年）和本世纪末（2080年至2100年）是从区域缩小的全球气候模型中提取的，并用于强制进行生物能模型。对于每个时间段，均考虑了两种不同的碳浓度情景：中度情况（IPCC RCP 4.5）和极端情况（IPCC RCP 8.5）。预计的温度变化将根据物种和地理区域对生长产生不同的影响。根据分析的案例研究，在地中海西部海域养殖的金头鲷最易受伤害，而西南葡萄​​牙的近海养殖贻贝养殖受到的影响最小。预计在本世纪中叶和本世纪末气候情景中，大多数模拟的海洋有鳍鱼类的摄食效率都会降低。在两种排放情景下，随着气候变化的进展，双壳贝类在大多数生产力参数方面均呈下降趋势。作为跨物种和地区的总体趋势，在所有未来的预测中，经济不确定性预计将增加。